To continue the Keeneland fanfare, here we go! I hope your first week was a profitable one.

Today we’ve got some stats on shippers to Keeneland, and how shipping from different tracks has fared since 2014. As usual, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@john_camardo) or on here.

I would also like to plug the last two pieces located here on the site.

  1. How winners won their races – a look at how races were won in terms of horse’s position throughout the race: https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2019/04/04/keeneland-how-winners-won-races-race-evolution/
  2. Looking at the Keeneland meet through data – an intro to how trainers and jockeys perform at races over the various Keeneland track configurations: https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2019/04/02/keeneland-looking-at-the-spring-meet-through-data/

Shippers

Note all stats shown below are shippers from the track noted to Keeneland and all are since 2014.

Shippers to one turn dirt races

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTEXPECTED_WINSPAYOUTIMPACT_VALUESROI
AQU73221.8819.6710.71.110.33
WO115121.5712.8564.11.681.26
SAR4019520.5120.86106.20.980.54
BEL15752019.69361.020.48
GP532791917.54191.91.080.69
DED21216.6712.647.91.320.66
FG5936516.1614.75263.81.10.72
OP3219916.0816.2206.30.991.04
RP31915.7913.839.61.140.51
TDN320159.8227.31.531.37
AP2114214.7912.1288.71.220.62
DMR32213.6415.619.50.870.43
LRL64513.3314.4730.50.920.68
KEE5342012.6213.74191.70.920.46
CD126100412.5512.26617.21.020.61
KD2419212.511.7390.31.070.47
PRX54211.914.0931.80.840.76
IND2622611.510.39234.51.111.04
SA43611.1115.696.60.710.18
CBY65710.538.2835.91.270.63
MVR32910.347.1517.31.450.6
CT2229.098.8618.61.030.85
MTH2229.0919.892.60.460.12
DEL2267.6914.447.90.530.3
ELP141837.6510.3289.80.740.49
TAM7977.2210.24300.70.31
MNR4596.786.7316.41.010.28
PID6976.196.358.60.980.6
TP233806.057.6164.70.80.43
BTP21191.686.38.50.270.07
  • Shippers from Woodbine, New York tracks, and Gulfstream do very well in this type of race and show up at the top of the charts. They win all at nearly 20%.
  • On the contrary, as one might assume Belterra Park, Turfway Park and Presque Isle shippers do very poorly.
  • Sprinters running after having raced at Santa Anita do very poorly. They hit at only 11%, and burn quite a bit of money as the ROI suggests. This is surprising given the reputation of California speed.

Shippers to two turn dirt races

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTEXPECTED_WINSPAYOUTIMPACT_VALUESROI
DED31421.4315.1917.41.411.24
FG4824519.5914.55292.41.351.19
AQU42119.0516.944.71.120.22
RP21216.6715.783.51.060.29
DEL4251615.2511.31.050.45
SAR2616715.5717.966.10.870.4
GP3421915.5315.98120.70.970.55
WO42615.3811.4912.31.340.47
HOU21315.3821.463.80.720.29
CD9663915.0213.14443.71.140.69
TAM151001512.8899.31.160.99
KEE2822012.7313.14122.80.970.56
SA43212.515.1219.70.830.62
OP1614111.3515.2570.80.740.5
KD1816111.1812.22125.90.910.78
IND1412810.9411.5968.20.940.53
ELP109210.8710.3477.81.050.85
CBY32810.719.97141.070.5
MTH32810.7110.111.61.060.41
AP9999.0910.08123.40.91.25
BEL5578.7716.818.40.520.32
LRL225811.4519.70.70.79
PRX3397.6915.425.70.50.15
TDN1137.697.2141.070.31
TP122195.488.04124.20.680.57
PID2395.139.711.50.530.29
BTP3823.666.86150.530.18
MVR01605.63000
MNR02906.97000
  • Delta Downs appears at the top of two turn dirt race shipper stats. They win over 20% of the time, and you could have gotten a positive return on your investment for betting Delta Downs shippers in two turn races.
  • Mahoning Valley and Mountaineer shippers are a combined 0 for 45. They are usually longshots as their expected win percentages suggest though.
  • Fair Grounds shippers make a good showing here winning 48 out of 245 starts and boast a positive ROI
  • New York shippers who last raced at Aqueduct and Saratoga win over 15% of the time, but for some reason, horses who last raced at Belmont win at under 10% out of pretty significant number of runners and their impact value suggests that bettors think that that win percentage should be much higher.

Shippers to one turn turf races

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTEXPECTED_WINSPAYOUTIMPACT_VALUESROI
SA41921.0515.3612.41.370.65
BEL3152013.818.51.450.57
GP116317.4613.9144.21.260.7
KEE63815.799.4947.21.661.24
TAM21414.296.2711.12.280.79
CD53613.899.7956.71.421.58
FG107912.6610.2182.11.241.04
SAR43511.4315.6914.50.730.41
IND220106.14381.631.9
TP2277.414.2514.41.740.53
PRX1147.1412.423.20.580.23
WO1156.6711.432.80.580.19
ELP1156.675.4432.21.232.15
PID1166.254.7837.81.312.36
AP1175.885.433.11.080.18
KD2732.7411.1850.250.07
OP02005.78000
LRL01408.87000
  • If you see s shipper from Oaklawn or Laurel – avoid it.
  • Kentucky Downs has seen the second most runners ship to Keeneland’s one turn turf races. They are an astounding 2 for 73 and get bet like they should win at least 11% of the time. Potential fade opportunity.
  • Otherwise, the sample size is much lower here as there are fewer one turn turf races than other races at Keeneland.

Shippers to two turn turf races

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTEXPECTED_WINSPAYOUTIMPACT_VALUESROI
AQU6242513.9627.31.791.14
HOU31323.084.9625.14.661.93
LAD42218.189.3223.11.951.05
BEL2513917.9916.0295.91.120.69
SAR3620617.4815.08139.11.160.68
PRX42416.6711.6911.21.430.47
GP7857213.6413.46426.11.010.74
OP54411.364.8142.32.360.96
MTH21811.1110.0216.41.110.91
SA87810.2613.7231.80.750.41
WO111139.7310.1550.30.960.45
KD505339.3810.14359.40.930.67
LRL5559.098.7668.31.041.24
DMR4449.0911.3323.90.80.54
CD263178.27.71310.51.060.98
KEE172197.768.65157.90.90.72
TAM131687.748.0683.50.960.5
IND6857.064.8585.61.451.01
ELP4586.96.1722.41.120.39
FG132684.857.0987.90.680.33
AP51054.767.6862.60.620.6
DEL1244.177.335.60.570.23
TP51333.765.2476.60.720.58
MNR01401.87000
PID05303.63000
CBY01507.01000
  • New York shippers to two turn turf races at Keeneland win a high percentage of their races. However, you can only find a positive ROI on shippers from Aqueduct. It’s important to note, however, that the impact values are all greater than 1.
  • Presque Isle shippers make a lot of starts in two turn Keeneland races, but haven’t won since 2014 (probably a good insight for the fall meet…)
  • Kentucky Downs shippers do better here than they were noted above, but still win less than 10% of the time.
  • Without having a turf course, shippers from Oaklawn actually boast an almost profitable ROI, and have an impact value over 2.
  • Sam Houston shippers are probably the most interesting part of this chart, having won over 20% of their races (granted, only 13). The ROI suggests you could have almost doubled your money, just by betting Sam Houston shippers in two turn turf races!

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