It’s that time of year again when everyone is trying to predict what will happen when a field of 20 horses all going 1, ¼ miles for the first time compete in the Kentucky Derby. Trying to predict how each horse will run at 10f when all the major Derby prep races are run at 9f or less is one of the biggest challenges in handicapping the Derby. There are several popular approaches to solving this puzzle and all are somewhat problematic. Is there something better that we can use to help answer this annual Derby riddle? I think so. I have developed a mathematical model that attempts to do just that. Click on the following link to find out more.

Christopher Larmey is the Chairman of the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) Players Committee and a member of the NTRA NHC Hall of Fame. He is also an editor on and co-host along with Scott Carson on the new Public Handicapper Podcast available on iTunes and at

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