It’s Belmont Stakes week. I’ve spent a good deal of time buying clothes and hats as I’ll be at the track both Friday and Saturday, but I also looked at some Belmont data and I thought I would share it with everyone so they have some time to maybe use it in preparation for the weekend.

Jockey stats

First, we took a look at jockeys so far for this meet. The table below represents the stats for the meet so far, and excludes jockeys with less than 10 starts.

JOCKEYPAYOUTMOUNTSWINSEXPECTED_WINSWIN_PCTROIIMPACT_VALUE
Jose Lezcano129.193310.240.331.391.41
Kendrick Carmouche128.75115250.170.221.121.29
Dylan Davis141133220.130.171.061.26
Junior Alvarado125.6586180.130.211.461.67
Irad Ortiz, Jr.47.9585170.240.20.560.85
Jose Ortiz49.1586150.220.170.570.8
Manuel Franco60.3107130.170.120.560.7
Javier Castellano39.0574130.230.180.530.77
Luis Saez78.4575130.150.171.051.16
Joel Rosario48.3573100.150.140.660.93
John Velazquez28.44580.20.180.630.87
Eric Cancel24.18760.110.070.280.64
Rajiv Maragh28.77150.110.070.40.64
Benjamin Hernandez37.48650.090.060.430.67
Joe Bravo13.953450.160.150.410.95
Luis Reyes22.957230.070.040.320.56
Michael Luzzi23.353730.060.080.631.37
Reylu Gutierrez28.93030.080.10.961.19
Joey Martinez54.62520.040.082.182.22
Hector Diaz, Jr.8.753020.090.070.290.74
Samuel Camacho, Jr.74.255820.070.031.280.52
Harry Hernandez3.32310.090.040.140.47
Ruben Silvera01300.06000
Samuel Jimenez01500.02000

Some notes:

  • Clearly Jose Lezcano is on a bit of a tear. He has an ROI of almost $1.40, and an impact value near 1.4 as well. One thing to note here is that last week he was winning at an even greater clip.
  • Manny Franco who was on a crazy winning streak a few months ago has cooled off since.
  • The “upper tier” of jockeys (Ortiz’s, Castellano, Velasquez, Rosario) are all sporting sub break-even ROIs – potentially something to keep in mind if betting them to win, but obviously, they win at such high rates it’s probably unwise to exclude.

Trainers

Similar to jockeys, I took a look at how trainers have been doing so far at Belmont this year. The below table filters out trainers with less than 10 starts so far this year.

TRAINERPAYOUTMOUNTSWINSEXPECTED_WINSWIN_PCTROIIMPACT_VALUE
Chad Brown74.8561200.310.331.231.06
Linda Rice46.0557130.220.230.811.02
Rudy Rodriguez66.1563110.170.171.051
Jeremiah Englehart63.236100.150.281.761.91
Brad Cox23.151970.240.371.221.5
Todd Pletcher24.054170.230.170.590.75
Danny Gargan29.32870.220.251.051.16
Jason Servis15.12460.270.250.630.92
Wesley Ward12.751750.270.290.751.08
Rob Atras21.72450.210.210.91.01
Raymond Handal24.451350.180.381.882.17
Kiaran McLaughlin18.952850.170.180.681.04
William Mott29.62850.130.181.061.38
Charlton Baker41.253150.180.161.330.88
Christophe Clement19.63850.140.130.520.92
Mark Casse29.81140.130.362.712.78
Gary Gullo23.651740.190.241.391.24
H. Bond19.41740.120.241.141.99
Jorge Abreu18.12340.140.170.791.25
John Toscano, Jr.20.43240.110.120.641.14
Thomas Albertrani25.951930.130.161.371.17
Bruce Levine14.93030.130.10.50.76
Edward Barker75.752030.150.153.790.98
Gary Contessa16.653930.110.080.430.72
Thomas Morley54.32030.120.152.721.21
Michelle Nevin13.13330.160.090.40.59
Leo O’Brien42.21020.040.24.225.46
Chris Englehart7.651520.140.130.510.98
Barclay Tagg4.11120.160.180.371.14
Carlos Martin10.13120.130.060.330.49
David Donk10.23620.10.060.280.55
Mertkan Kantarmaci6.651820.160.110.370.69
James Jerkens6.61320.160.150.510.94
Thomas Bush7.21320.140.150.551.08
Gary Sciacca8.82720.070.070.331.1
Bruce Brown21.51720.070.121.261.77
Michael Maker11.752420.140.080.490.62
Naipaul Chatterpaul22.61010.040.12.262.64
Dermot Magner2.41010.240.10.240.41
Mark Hennig2.42210.10.050.110.44
Claude McGaughey III2.551410.150.070.180.47
David Cannizzo2.81210.120.080.230.69
James Ryerson2.351810.120.060.130.46
Edmund Pringle4.61410.050.070.331.34
Leah Gyarmati3.451610.090.060.220.71
Dominick Schettino01100.15000
Randi Persaud01200.03000
John Terranova II01500.11000
John Kimmel01200.11000
Steven Asmussen01700.13000
James Ferraro02000.06000
George Weaver01100.15000
Eduardo Jones01200.08000

Some notes:

  • I am astounded that Chad Brown has a flat bet ROI that does not lose money ($1.23). I think it’s due to a longer priced winner that ran on the turf a few weeks back. But, still what an incredibly high return on merely betting a 33% trainer to win.
  • Equally astounding is that Steve Asmussen is 0 for 17 so far at Belmont. Granted, the public only expects him to win at 13%.
  • Mark Hennig and Shug McGaughey are a combined 2 for 36.

Specific trainer stats

Since Todd Pletcher has starters in over half of the races on Belmont Stakes day I took a quick look at how he has done on the various courses at sprints and routes, coming off of different length layoffs

Sprints

Routes

Notes:

  • Todd Pletcher has never won with a first time starter since 2015 in routes, no matter the surface.
  • Dirt sprints are where Pletcher thrives with first time starters. Turf sprints are similar to his record in routes.
  • Off of long layoffs of over 180 days, it appears that Pletcher only does poorly on the inner turf.

Shippers

The tables below look at shippers with 5 or more starts at Belmont since 2015. I’ve only looked at sprints given the sample size for route races at the unique distances is very small.

The tables are sorted by highest to lowest win percentages.

One turn inner turf sprints

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTPAYOUTROI
WO5110.4525.252.3
DEL3130.23076942.13.24
PIM290.2222226.60.73
SA290.2222225.850.65
GP201090.183486143.81.32
SUF160.1666672.50.42
KEE5320.1562512.950.4
PID2130.15384611.30.87
MTH6400.1548.651.22
BEL15011510.1303211017.850.88
FG180.1253.50.44
SAR453900.115385315.450.81
AQU344260.0798122278.450.65
CD1130.07692311.550.12
LRL3430.069767421.550.5
PRX2390.051282115.10.39
FL010000
TAM013000
MED08000
  • The most interesting stat here to me is that Gulfstream shippers appear to do well on the inner turf in sprint races. With over a hundred runners and a positive ROI, any shippers coming off longer layoffs this weekend from Gulfstream might be interesting plays.

One turn turf sprints

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTPAYOUTROI
PEN270.2857147.651.09
CD10480.20833352.851.1
WO3150.280.53
KD2110.18181813.751.25
DEL160.1666677.91.32
GP231440.159722113.350.79
KEE8550.145455260.47
SAR635020.125498342.60.68
TAM2170.1176477.350.43
LRL6520.11538552.051
BEL17815600.1141031012.40.65
AQU505660.0883392516.80.91
MTH5590.084745818.40.31
FG1120.08333332.50.21
PID1130.07692313.50.27
PRX2440.04545458.750.2
PIM1260.0384615190.73
GPW05000
SA019000
FL011000
SUF05000
  • Santa Anita sticks out to me here as not having a winner ship to the turf course, especially as it contrasts with the 2 for 9 on the inner turf.
  • Churchill boasts a very high winning percentage on the turf course, and has a profitable ROI.

One turn dirt sprints

LAST_RACED_TRACKWINSMOUNTSWIN_PCTPAYOUTROI
KEE291080.268519113.21.05
PEN5190.26315866.93.52
SA10390.2564152.451.34
FG290.22222217.31.92
LRC150.22.250.45
PIM11570.19298265.11.14
GP311730.179191124.150.72
TAM4230.17391312.40.54
WO160.1666672.250.38
SAR23414720.1589671307.850.89
DMR170.1428571.90.27
BEL48234540.1395482675.550.77
AQU25718660.1377281469.50.79
LRL13980.132653100.651.03
MTH151200.125102.10.85
OP3240.12510.850.45
CD111000.1177.050.77
PRX131290.10077571.250.55
CT1100.11.750.18
FL6780.076923129.30.38
SUF1130.07692319.20.71
DEL2370.054054116.40.44
MED06000
ELP05000
TIM05000
AP05000
  • The top four tracks all boast positive ROIs. Keeneland and Santa Anita have more significant sample sizes and might be interesting plays over the coming weeks.
  • Churchill and Monmouth Park have negative returns on investment, and low strike rates while both have sent a significant number of runners to Belmont’s dirt course.

Lengths analysis

In order to see how winners have won races, I took a look at the total lengths behind of the winning horse at each of the recorded points of call. I looked at the mean, median and max for each of the winners at the distances listed below on the various courses at Belmont. The results below are for 2019 only,

Dirt

Route races on the dirt appear to be more favorable to runners close to the lead at each point of call. It’s important to note that races up to 9 furlongs are run around 1 turn, and it does appear that these races play somewhat like sprints, in that they favor front runners.

Inner turf

Overall, on the inner turf, it seems that both for routes and sprints, it is advantageous for horses to be close to leaders, at least for races run at less than 10 furlongs.

Turf

The widener turf course to me looks like it has generally played more like traditional turf races with more horses coming off the pace, as is evidenced by the higher means and medians for the winners than similar distances on other courses (e.g. inner turf and dirt).

2 Comment on “A look at the Belmont Meet so Far

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