Photo credit: NYRA/Chelsea Durand

Intro

Please follow me on Twitter @john_camardo. I am always happy to discuss any of what I’ve written below. Also, please check out some of the other posts I’ve written.

Given there are plenty of two year old races run at Saratoga, I thought that for this post, I might take a little look at some of the two year old restricted races to see if there were any profitable angles. Turns out, there are some profitable angles. Feel free to load those up into your STATS profile, and keep an eye out.

In the interest of also trying to provide some ideas for vertical plays, I have included Place and Show tallies for each trainer, on each surface.

Two year old restricted races, first time starters

The tables below are filtered for trainers with 10 or more starts. This is for only first time starters in age restricted two year old races.

COURSETRAINERPAYOUTEXPECTED_WINSWINSPLACESSHOWSMOUNTSWIN_PCTITM_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
TurfChad Brown23.30.21556270.190.590.890.86
TurfWilliam Mott56.20.07320170.180.292.453.31
TurfTodd Pletcher14.450.15363230.130.520.860.63
TurfWesley Ward14.80.14311130.230.381.61.14
TurfGeorge Weaver33.40.12241140.140.51.182.39
TurfMark Casse9.350.15242170.120.470.80.55
TurfH. Motion17.30.11124180.060.390.50.96
TurfDominick Schettino100.04100110.090.092.410.91
TurfLinda Rice4.70.12111160.060.190.510.29
TurfGary Contessa00.050121700.1800
TurfJeremiah Englehart00.110201000.200

Notes for turf, two year old, first time starters:

  1. I find Bill Motts appearance at the top of the list to be very interesting. He’s obviously a great trainer, but from the perspective of the numbers, he’s only expected to win 7% of the time, but actually wins at an 18% clip.
  2. Linda Rice, on the other hand gets bet like she should win 12% of the time with first time two year olds, but on has 1 win from 16 runners, not to mention a relatively low ROI.

COURSETRAINERPAYOUTEXPECTED_WINSWINSPLACESSHOWSMOUNTSWIN_PCTITM_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
DirtTodd Pletcher50.650.2114712720.190.460.910.7
DirtChad Brown35.60.23101310530.190.620.810.67
DirtSteven Asmussen51.150.13644340.180.411.391.5
DirtJeremiah Englehart27.350.1541240.210.422.041.14
DirtKiaran McLaughlin22.750.13423210.190.431.431.08
DirtGeorge Weaver49.950.11320170.180.291.582.94
DirtRudy Rodriguez16.90.13339380.080.390.590.44
DirtLinda Rice21.850.12331130.230.541.851.68
DirtGary Contessa35.40.05242230.090.351.671.54
DirtWesley Ward10.950.12220100.20.41.641.1
DirtMichael Maker150.08201150.130.21.641
DirtDominick Schettino11.10.07122170.060.290.880.65
DirtChristophe Clement4.550.11122110.090.450.80.41
DirtClaude McGaughey III7.50.1104130.080.380.790.58
DirtDallas Stewart13.20.06110140.070.141.20.94
DirtMark Casse3.450.15124150.070.470.440.23
DirtKenneth McPeek34.50.06130130.080.311.382.65
DirtMark Hennig3.850.07111120.080.251.280.32
DirtGary Sciacca00.03000100000
DirtGeorge Arnold, II00.040011100.0900
DirtBrian Lynch00.110211000.300
DirtD. Lukas00.05000220000
DirtRon Moquett00.070011300.0800
DirtThomas Albertrani00.060432700.2600
DirtWilliam Mott00.070122900.100
DirtMichelle Nevin00.050121300.2300
DirtNicholas Zito00.04000220000

Observations for dirt, two year old, first time starters:

  1. Steve Asmussen is among the top three of this group and has a pretty significant ROI, though this is most likely due to a few larger priced winners. Note that the payout for his 6 runners is more than Todd Pletcher’s payout for 14 winners. That being said, this might be a good place to look for some longer priced two year old firsters on the dirt.
  2. Plenty of consistently unsuccessful trainers at the bottom of the chart with no winners. The public does seem to have caught onto this trend for these trainers, as most of them are expected to win less than 10% of the time.
  3. Linda Rice on dirt is very different from the above stat for turf, two year old, first timers. Here she wins at a 23% clip (albeit from only 13 starters), but hits the board over half the time. Not to mention a nice, hefty ROI.

Trainers with 2 year old restricted races

The tables below are filtered for trainers with 10 or more starts. This is inclusive of both first time starters, and horses with racing experience.

COURSETRAINERPAYOUTEXPECTED_WINSWINSPLACESSHOWSMOUNTSWIN_PCTITM_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
TurfTodd Pletcher51.750.1811108520.210.561.21
TurfChad Brown26.90.21656320.190.530.880.84
TurfWesley Ward420.17654350.170.431.041.2
TurfWilliam Mott59.40.11440270.150.31.352.2
TurfGeorge Weaver44.950.14442200.20.51.452.25
TurfMark Casse18.950.16475310.130.520.810.61
TurfH. Motion27.850.13337260.120.50.911.07
TurfChristophe Clement11.20.2342170.180.530.90.66
TurfDavid Donk52.450.11303110.270.552.424.77
TurfSteven Asmussen10.50.15210160.120.190.840.66
TurfLinda Rice8.050.14212180.110.280.80.45
TurfGary Contessa40.06114320.030.190.510.12
TurfJeremiah Englehart5.50.11120140.070.210.650.39
TurfCarlos Martin9.10.08101130.080.150.910.7
TurfDominick Schettino100.05111150.070.21.340.67
TurfRudy Rodriguez3.90.1131150.070.330.680.26
TurfKenneth McPeek7.50.07101130.080.151.050.58
TurfMichael Maker6.50.13124160.060.440.490.41
TurfDavid Cannizzo00.080121000.300
TurfThomas Morley00.080121100.2700

Observations for the turf:

  1. Todd and Chad, in no surprise, top the list. Very important though to note that while Todd shows a break even ROI, Chad does not beat the takeout.
  2. Wesley Ward, obviously is always a must use with young horses.
  3. Bill Mott sticks out as one who appears to be more of an all or nothing type. He has a solid win percentage, especially relative to others, but I find it intriguing that his win percentage does not correlate as closely to his in the money percentage as some of the other trainers do.
  4. Toward the bottom of the list, Mike Maker also sticks out. He only has one winner from 16 starters, but hits the board closer to half the time.

COURSETRAINERPAYOUTEXPECTED_WINSWINSPLACESSHOWSMOUNTSWIN_PCTITM_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
Inner TurfMark Casse30.650.14433200.20.51.451.53
Inner TurfTodd Pletcher15.80.19413130.310.621.61.22
Inner TurfChad Brown6.750.28354200.150.60.530.34
Inner TurfWilliam Mott12.60.08150210.050.290.620.6
Inner TurfD. Lukas00.060121000.300

Not a ton to note here. Not many races are run for 2 year olds on the inner. It does seem that if there is a place to try to beat Chad, it may be here.


COURSETRAINERPAYOUTEXPECTED_WINSWINSPLACESSHOWSMOUNTSWIN_PCTITM_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
DirtTodd Pletcher121.30.213320231390.240.551.120.87
DirtSteven Asmussen81.70.17151116870.170.4810.94
DirtChad Brown43.70.25131611620.210.650.840.7
DirtJeremiah Englehart42.40.13953390.230.441.781.09
DirtRudy Rodriguez43.20.148816710.110.450.820.61
DirtGary Contessa900.08777480.150.441.791.88
DirtKiaran McLaughlin29.250.17743320.220.441.270.91
DirtKenneth McPeek75.80.09643270.220.482.412.81
DirtMark Casse25.750.17695490.120.410.710.53
DirtD. Lukas35.60.07562550.090.241.380.65
DirtLinda Rice31.150.15552200.250.61.721.56
DirtRalph Nicks32.90.12420100.40.63.293.29
DirtGeorge Weaver49.950.13330240.120.250.932.08
DirtJoe Sharp14.250.13300130.230.231.721.1
DirtWilliam Mott20.850.12356430.070.330.590.48
DirtIan Wilkes8.70.09231150.130.41.480.58
DirtEddie Kenneally7.650.18211120.170.330.930.64
DirtDominick Schettino13.150.09245280.070.390.750.47
DirtAnthony Dutrow6.250.15232130.150.541.030.48
DirtChristophe Clement12.350.12242180.110.440.950.69
DirtCharlton Baker13.60.12212100.20.51.641.36
DirtRon Moquett14.10.09201190.110.161.220.74
DirtThomas Morley15.70.09210150.130.21.551.05
DirtWesley Ward10.950.14252300.070.30.460.36
DirtMichael Maker150.08211190.110.211.340.79
DirtDallas Stewart13.20.07111170.060.180.880.78
DirtClaude McGaughey III7.50.11105160.060.380.590.47
DirtMark Hennig3.850.1134220.050.360.470.18
DirtGeorge Arnold, II00.040011300.0800
DirtGary Sciacca00.04000140000
DirtGary Gullo00.130111000.200
DirtJohn Kimmel00.070011900.0500
DirtJaime Mejia00.02000100000
DirtBrian Lynch00.110331600.3800
DirtBrad Cox00.170231200.4200
DirtThomas Albertrani00.060553000.3300
DirtJohn Terranova II00.110121100.2700
DirtNicholas Zito00.050033000.100
DirtMichelle Nevin00.060322100.2400

Notes for the dirt races:

  1. Chad Brown, Linda Rice, and Ralph Nicks all hit the board at over 60%, which is probably worth noting.
  2. Ken McPeek has a massive ROI, even with 27 runners. That’s pretty impressive. The public expects him to win less than 10% of the time, while he has won at around 22%. Potentially some value in this one.
  3. There are a solid contingent of 0-fers at the bottom of the pack, some with upwards of 20 mounts. Most notably is probably Brad Cox who was expected to win 17% of the time, but has never won.

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