PHOTO CREDIT: Michael Burns/Woodbine
Race 7: $40k OC 11f (T)
No pace signed on here for this distance, will look to find a price who can stalk or get clear – tread lightly
- Best Value #10 Bold Rally (8-1) – Projected to be on or near the lead at both pace calls (StatsRace Lens Pace Projector), trainer takes blinkers off, trying to fix the hang job that happened in last (poor break, shuffled back, move into hot pace and only horse that made a significant change in position). Second start for trainer could be dangerous.
- Most Likely #6 King and his Court (2/1) – Figures are elevated moving back to the turf. Has the decent back class and form.
- Next Best #8 Camp Creek (5/2) – 3rd off the bench and is training well. Declining form but I can excuse the first off the long break and most recent as a near miss. With no speed in this race, I would hope this one sends a bit.
- Exotic Use (assuming 6-1) # Looking at Bravo – if no one sends, this horse will have great position and tip to clear in the last 2f, grinder type but hasn’t found form in 2019.
Race 8: $125k sprint stakes for 2 y/o fillies
Ward horse entered here that is an easy stand against. Yes got beat by Nayibeth at Keeneland (went on to finish 13th in Ascot Albany Stakes Group 3), but Ward outside of Keeneland and 3rd start gives me pause – and at 8/5, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
- Most Likely: #3 West Paw (5/2) – broke best of all but was quickly over taken by the Wesley Ward’s horse, moved into the pace entering turn after leaders only going 23 first quarter (slow in my book for the distance), rail trip with tip out into stretch. Expect to see a move forward with the past workman like effort.
- Best Value: #6 Avie’s Samurai (6-1) – good speed, faded on rail trip. Gets Lasix for firs time and expect a move up. Only pause is the quick July 13th turnaround.
- Next Best (beatable favorite) #1 Owlette (8/5) – interested to see if this one will even run considering Wards odd ways of scratching. Didn’t run anything blazing last out, think this is an easy one to stand against as numbers project down on the all-weather.
- Trap of a Trip #2 Curlin Voyage (3-1) – trap of a trip, off slow and maybe has better gate speed next time but only passed tiring horses and had a dream rail and tip out trip
Recommend Non-Soul Crushing Wager ($25): $15 10 w 3 / $5 6, 8 w 3 (saver)