To set the tone for these posts, I
will never be a top 10 pro-punter in the UK today like Rob Dove, never throw
out winning pick 6 tickets on NBC like JK, nor have self-made models to give me
an edge like John Camardo. My goal here is to give new players a look inside
how to approach racing like a seasoned “regular Joe”, the way PTF and JK taught
me through the podcast a handful of years ago. I’ll be writing $25 tickets for
two key race sequences. The following week, I’ll take a look at what went right
and what went wrong and post it on the blog. One last thing, if there’s ever
jargon you don’t know (e.g. “second off the bench”, AW, etc.), reach out and
we’ll help out.
last weekend at Woodbine I wiffed.
We hit a $27 winner on top, we were drawing live in the doubles to ~$950, we
cashed… for zero. It’s a great example in finding value and not keeping it
simple. As my friend Matt Miller said in a text, a win bet should be your
foundation. This is even more true when you’re betting in the increments us
average players do. If we find value in a race, bet to win and feather in the
exotics to score out big. In other words, don’t live or die only by exotics
because your bankroll and psyche will take a beaten.
Woodbine Race 7: 7f (AW) $100k
Three speeds drawn inside (Stats
Race Lens Pace Projector) and plenty of speed outside. This will force at least
a few horses to go and I’m going to look for a horse to sit 2-4 lengths off and
work out a trip at a price.
- Best Value: #9 Painting (10-1): She isn’t the
fastest nor classiest on paper. But! She made up ground on a loose leader
while weaving through traffic in the last 3/8. With 3 y/o’s, I look for
these athletic moves that just didn’t setup well for a young horse who has
plenty of upside still. This horse also gets Lasix for first time and a
decent post between all the speeds.
- Most Logical: #7 La Feve
(3-1): class of the field running in grade 3’s, never really had a pace to
run into and this should setup well for this one. Also I like the works of
the AW at Fairhill – this one should be ready to go second off the bench.
I don’t love the value here so won’t be betting anything through this
horse. If using in bigger multi-race wagers, don’t leave off.
- Next Best: #8 Wings of Dawn (5-1): should get
another stalking trip, cuts back, and cross out the dirt try at Belmont.
Woodbine Race 8: 8f (T) Claimer
Another muddy paced turf race with
no clear speed.
- Most Logical: #3 Rince
Tapaigh (4-1): Expect this price to drift up because buried in the pp’s is
some much better pace setting races that we’re looking for. The poly form
has really muddied this ones abilities. I would expect Luis to take to the
lead and kick clear. It should be noted, ever time this trainer enters the
horse for a tag (also owns the horse), this horse win as of late (3-3).
Good angle to look for with a trainer winning at such a clip, even more so
when the trainer owns the horse (10-16 finishing in the money at WO).
- Next Best: #1 Belle Danseuse (2-1): hit or
miss horse who could easily grind this field out sitting a dream trip on
the rail and kicking home if no one else pushes the pace.
Woodbine Suggested non-soul
crushing wager ($25)
- R7 Double $5 9 w 3
- R8 Win $20 = 3 Rince
Monmouth Race 10: 5f (T) Tryo Stakes $75k
Interesting race with Wards two Ascot runners. The
curious thing is only one was green on debut and showed more second start (Karak)
Value:#5 Now Is (12-1): broke strongly from the 8 post (better
position today) and blazed going an extra furlong only to fade. This one
has strong upside and will look to create value here with this one.
Logical: #7 Karak – This one was green down the lane and ran a stormer
last out state side. No doubt she will take to the lead and be done with
Monmouth Race 11: 6f OC $16k n1x
In the salty bunch, we’ll keep looking for upside with
younger horses when they’re runnin big figures and having good works.
Value: #5 Prospective Belle (8-1): Has ran amazing stalking races and the
speeds in the race could duel out and set up perfectly for this one. The
hot trainer doesn’t hurt this horses chances either.
#7 Whip Me Into (2-1): Might freak if gets back to form and stalks a trip.
Use: #1 Wishful Quality (9/2): Gets the rail and has the speed. The
bullet work two back signals all systems a go.
Monmouth Suggested non-soul crushing wager ($25)
11: Win $10 5
10: Double $10 7 w 5, $5 5 w 5