Here we go again! Unfortunately, we are looking at more rain affecting some of the best racing in the world. Rain has been in the forecast for August 7th and 8th for the past week. Rain totals have fluctuated slightly as thunderstorms are being forecast for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Weather model comparison of hourly precipitation accumulation. Time is in UTC (18 UTC = 2pm Eastern).

The chart above shows the comparison of the latest models and the big spread between them due to uncertainty in thunderstorms coming through the area. Here is what we know:

  • A low pressure system will be coming through the area Wednesday afternoon which is the source of lift bringing the rain Wednesday afternoon.
  • The rain Tuesday evening will have minimal impact on the first half of the Wednesday card.
  • Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow
Storm Prediction Center forecast for severe weather tomorrow August 7th.

Here is the Uncertainty:

  • Rain is expected to develop around 2-3pm
  • Thunderstorms are a strong possibility, If some develop and come through Saratoga we will be looking at storm totals well over an inch.
  • A cold front is expected to come through with another low pressure system Thursday evening between 2-5pm. This system could bring another quarter to half an inch of precipitation.

Synopsis: With the potential for thunderstorms looking increasingly likely in Saratoga starting around 2-3pm could greatly impact the last half of the racing card Wednesday, August 7th. There are only 2 turf races in the late half of the race card, Race 6 (Mahony Stakes) and Race 10 ($40k MCL). These races could potentially run into a lot of scratches if Yielding/Off. The card on Thursday is likely to have scratches due to the expected rain Wedesnday/Thursday. As always check out @g1handicapping on twitter for live weather updates!

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