The Recap from Last Weekend
Before we get into this weekend, let’s put bad beats aside and look to learn and find direction for future wagers. We gave out 10 runners last weekend and 8 were in the money which is a win in my book. Did we make money? Nope. But we were, “seeing the ball” as Friday Nights Lights would say. If you’re new to handicapping, go setup a “virtual stable” account with Equibase. This will help notify you of when the next runner is out and remind you what you saw.
Trip Notes: 8/3/19 – WO 8th #3 Rince Tapaigh – jockey shuffled the horse back with the front horses going easily enough, closed well but just in poor position when the running began. Would bet again.
Trip Notes: 8/3/19 – MTH 11th #5 Prospective Belle – Got bumped hard twice on both sides in first 100ft, pinched hard and pushed 2 paths and had to shut off a furlong out. Regained stride to be 7-8 lenghts off lead (last). Made huge move around turn to get into contention but was pushed into the 10 path almost. Finished with great grit to get 3rd. So much more left.
Race 9 – Wonder Where Stakes 10f (T)
The race shape looks to be the 1 and 4 coming out and hooking up to escort the field of 7 up the back stretch. There’s knocks on all these horses (easy leads, soft fractions, poor turf starts, etc.) so we’re looking for a price.
Best Value/Top Pick: Grand Mesa (20-1) – Crazy, right? The third of the Chiefwood Stables horses. This horse is not a rabbit runner so it gives me pause, why enter three when two will do (Niigon Spin – speed, Sport’n Forty – stalker)? Go back and watch the last two races and you see an improving and, more importantly, maturing horse. Two back the horse couldn’t relax and fought the rider down the backstretch. After all that wasted energy and leaving the jockey with no option other than to shuffle all the way to the back (6-8L off lead), he begins to pick of a few horses in what looks to be a workout from the top of the stretch to across the wire as the race was lost from there. The latest start, the horse settled quickly in the two turn event, stalks the field, and ranges up and works out a good trip. The key to this trip is the workman like attack between horses, showing the maturity and grit to split horses we like to see.
Next Best: Speed soul (2-1) – should be forwardly placed in the one hole for a leading jockey who knows how to position horses. The pace figures look to fit and should be in the mix coming to the top of the stretch. Unoriginal and too short of a price for us to put on top.
Beatable: Desert Ride (7/5) – I get why he’s the favorite with the back class of the Queen’s Plate try and the graded stakes win. But focus on just the turf tries. You start to see timeform figures in the high 80’s (for reference, Grand Mesa’s workout-like finish on May 31st was a mid-80’s finish). Only one horse out of the KEE winning effort has one a race since (Gamlin Train who runs at AP Saturday). We’ll look elsewhere.
Race 10 – Oclm $40k 6f (AW)
What an interesting race with several class movers, distance changes and improving horses. There’s plenty of horses to make a case for so don’t let me talk you off any.
Most Logical: Golden Vision (7/2) – Last two starts showed great improvement. Should have enough speed up front to stalk a trip and close well.
Best Value: Twice Around (12-1) – the 7f and 6.5f seemed a bit too long for this presser. I’ll expect another top jockey to navigate a pocket trip with inside speed and have enough left in the tank to find a seam and kick home.
Exotic Use: Touch of Rage (20-1) – was it the perfect debut and we’ll never see that again? With the addition of Lasix and a capable trainer, if we see anything close to that, this one will be in the mix and on the lead turning for home.
Beatable: Pink Scribbles (9/2) – worked up the ranks in the maiden company and finally found the perfect trip with a hot pace to run into. Now hasn’t found the winners circle in last two starts and doubt we’ll see this one even in the top 3. The post draw doesn’t help either. Too many other horses to make cases for.
Wagering Approach ($25 budget)
$10 R9 Win 7
$5 R9 Place 7
$7 R9 Double 7 w 4
$3 R9 Double 7 w 6