Woodbine 8/17/2019 – Coatney Review

The Recap from Last Weekend

Refund is what we got. With the gate scratch of Grand Mesa, our longshot play, we didn’t get an opportunity to make any wagers on that sequence. The race shape would have setup perfect for the stalking/closer trip that Grand Mesa has found successful. This one is going straight to the Virtual Stable on Equibase for the next outing.

As for our other race, I’m not sure what to make of it. Our top choice (Golden Vision 8/5) got stuck behind a wall of five horses turning into the stretch, looking for a seam. The trip wasn’t the worst, but I think the pace flow was more impactful as many of the front runners hung around across the wire. However, the fractions seemed honest enough so we’re not considering any of these as bet backs or bet against.

Race 9: OC $65k 6.5 (AW)

Lots of speed signed on here and not sure if any of them will come back to the field. If #8 Gold Lace shakes loose and no one goes with him, this should be all but over. The 6.5 distance is a tricky one as it is a taxing all out sprint for a majority of the race. We’ll use that fact to look for a bit of a pace collapse in our exotics.

Best Value/Top Pick: #2 Charmaine’s Mia (ML 15-1) – It took us a while to land on this one, but we really dig him. This horse wants to be on the lead, no question. The last few events where this horse finished out of the money, he was drawn way outside to the 10 and 8 post, We will excuse those efforts based on the poor draws. Looking at the winning efforts, specifically the off the turf 6.5 event on 5/25 (run over the poly), this horse flew over the track. This one should be able to outgun Veil from the inside and have the wood the whole way around. If we think Gold Lace will stalk that trip, I feel confidence in Charmaine’s ability to get the 6.5f and sustain the early pace turning back the heavy favorite (based on the 7f sustained efforts).

Most Logical: #8 Gold Lace (ML 2/1) – What a purchase for $12.5k and a turn of form for this 5 year old. However, you have to look very closely at only the polytrack form. The numbers immediately come back down to earth with this field. With that said, the early pace this horse can carry is impressive and fits into our #2 spot based on the speed advantage.

Exotic Use: #6 Blurricane (ML 10-1) – Horse has fallen off the radar as of late putting up three out of the money efforts. But if you dig into the pace of those three races, all were slow early fractions with the horse well placed back. In this event, there’s no case of that happening with all the speeds. Expect this one back in the early going and we have to hope for the pace duel upfront between Veil, Charmaine, and Gold Lace. With the top jockey staying aboard and the hopes of returning to form, we’ll side with this one at 8-1 or more.

Race 10: Breeders’ Stakes $400k 12f (T)

The last leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. We tried hard to put together a creative angle on top, but we came up broke. The sustained TimeForm US pace figures of Avie’s Flatter stand well over this field but the two seconds have us wondering. The only way we see things getting interesting if any of the heavy favorites hook up and push the pace to blistering fractions, but that’s not the M.O. for either Avie’s Flatter or Tone Broke. If you find a price you like, I would stick with it as this was a tough nut to crack beyond the obvious contenders.

Most Logical: #7 Avie’s Flatter (ML 2-1) – Love the fact this one gets back to the turf where the tables should be turned on main rival Tone Broke. With proven form in the US at CD and KEE, we have to side with this proven horse. Note that the Stats Race Lens Pace Projector has this horse well clear of the rest of the field. If that’s the case turning for home, Da Silva is tactful  enough of a rider to save something in the tank for this testing event.

Best Value: #6 Pay for Peace (ML 20-1) – There’s nothing very convincing elsewhere, so we may as well look for a price, right? The Queens Plate two back sure did look to favor the front runners, so we’ll that effort out. In the last race you had another two lone leaders winning (both over 20-1) and Pay for Peace was never catching them. But what catches our eye is the slow fractions and strong move for the last 1/8 of that race. At what should be north of 20-1 odds, we’ll use this one in a few spots.

Next Best: #8 He’s a Macho Man (ML 6-1) –last time out got Lasix and woke this horse up. The added distance and turf could help even more. Fair value here is anything over 10-1 for us, nothing less.

Beatable out of the exacta: #5 Tone Broke (ML 5/2) – First pass the horses is good on dirt. But the polyform and flop in the slop has us scratching our head how this one will run. And then you take a glance at the back class and they’re good but nothing noteworthy. On top of that, Asmussen is 3 for 42 (7%) when moving from dirt to turf in stakes events. At 5/2 that’s way too short price for us.

Race 11: Alw $75k 8.5f (T)

Small field with inside speed of both #1 Starship and #2 Lunar. The 1/5 on the morning line gives us pause as I don’t think #1 Starship has an 80% of winning this race due to the previous fact and the slight misstep in 2019. Note that the horse also is 2 for 4 in recent starts when going off at less than even money.

Best Value: #4 Cartabianca (ML 20-1) – Based on past works, this horse has talent and upside for a 4 y/o. She hasn’t put it all together fully stateside, but showed glimpses of ability at Keeneland back in April. Last race cross a line through it as the jockey gave up halfway around the turn either knowing the horse was empty going the full 10 panels or the horse had no reason being in that stakes race. I’m guessing a bit of both. If the pace heats up among the three inside horses, he has a chance here.

Most Logical: #1 Starship Jubilee (ML 1/5) – Fastest on paper, will be on the lead from the 1 hole, and has the best class. At 1-5 we will pass as the recent form has been subpar for this 6 year old. Also note this horse when going off at odds of less than even money is 2 for 4, albeit a small sample size.

Wagering Approach ($25 Budget)

R9 P3: $5 2 w 7 w 4

R9 P3: $10 2 w 7 w 1

R9: WP $5 #2 – let’s make sure we get good value at 12-1 or higher

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