In advance of opening day at Keeneland, as per our ritual, I though it might be helpful to some to see some trainer and jockey angles for some of the race configurations typically run on the track. There are some hiddne nuggets in here, so enjoy and happy handicapping.

Notes: All stats are for the Keeneland Fall Meet (October) only. Data is sampled since 2017.

Be careful here as well. The data is just the data and there are some relatively small sample sizes on which it may not be the best idea to make decisions. That being said, spotting a trend before everyone else does is where you might be able to find some value.

Jockey and trainer stats

Trainers

All stats are since 2017, October only, for trainers with 10 or more mounts

Turf, two turns

TRAINERMOUNTSEXPECTED_WINWINSWIN_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
Chad Brown1924.1315.790.660.24
Mark Casse2216.56313.640.820.39
Claude McGaughey III1015.53301.942.1
Brian Lynch1514.080000
William Mott1813.410000
Michael Maker5113.111019.611.51.16
Eddie Kenneally1312.65323.081.823.22
Brad Cox1812.5515.560.440.58
Brendan Walsh1412.317.140.580.35
H. Motion2012.232100.820.48
Todd Pletcher1012.181100.820.49
Michael Stidham119.53327.272.863.12
Ian Wilkes329.4626.250.660.32
George Arnold, II129.363252.671.13
Wesley Ward159.10000
Joe Sharp168.96318.752.090.66
Ignacio Correas, IV168.530000
Kenneth McPeek197.330000
Ben Colebrook106.880000
Charles LoPresti126.66216.672.50.98
Victoria Oliver136.1517.691.250.63
Mikhail Yanakov112.840000

Takeaways:

  • Bill Mott 0/18 on two turn turf routes which is rather astounding. Horses of his have gone off at odds suggesting they should win 13% of the time, but they have not won since 2017
  • Place to beat Chad? 3 winners from 19 starters with a 24 cent return on a dollar. I may take some chances to stand against him. Bear in mind these horses may be the lower end of his contingent given Breeders’ Cup is typically around the corner at this point (this is suggested especially by the 16% expected win percentage, which is far lower than his horses usually are).
  • The standout here is probably Mike Maker who hits at almost 20% in these types and has a positive ROI.

Dirt, one turn

TRAINERMOUNTSEXPECTED_WINWINSWIN_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
John Ortiz1227.1118.330.310.04
Albert Stall, Jr.1323.65215.380.650.22
Wesley Ward2523.586241.020.8
Mark Casse1720.04211.760.591.15
Eddie Kenneally2819.68414.290.730.36
Brad Cox2818.75621.431.140.62
Steven Asmussen4517.981226.671.480.71
W. Calhoun1117.0919.090.530.07
Michael Maker3317.09721.211.240.56
Chris Hartman1417.03214.290.840.4
Thomas Amoss1716.11211.760.730.46
Brian Lynch1115.9919.090.570.24
Ignacio Correas, IV1114.0119.090.650.27
Kellyn Gorder1113.33218.181.362.11
Ben Colebrook2813.247251.891.91
Wayne Catalano1412.84214.291.110.38
George Arnold, II1812.76422.221.741.8
D. Lukas1612.490000
Brendan Walsh1312.3817.690.620.3
Ron Moquett4011.95717.51.460.63
Kenneth McPeek2711.6913.70.320.06
Ingrid Mason1610.5416.250.590.25
Ian Wilkes3410.2312.940.290.28
Philip Sims229.1429.090.990.45
Steve Margolis118.94218.182.031.11
Bernard Flint118.8419.091.030.31
Michael Tomlinson188.79422.222.531.03
William Bradley138.6917.690.880.15
Gregory Foley147.570000
Victoria Oliver137.0217.691.10.42
John Hancock1960000
Charles LoPresti115.6119.091.620.96
Nevada Litfin105.210000
William Van Meter164.0916.251.531.06
James Jackson113.740000

Standouts:

  • Ben Colebrook – 7 for 28 with a very high ROI.
  • Lukas – 0 for 16
  • Steve Asmussen – 12 for 45 with a very high win percentage but relatively low Return.
  • Stark contrast here with Maker being 7 for 33. However, still a negative return on a dollar investment.

Dirt, two turns

TRAINERMOUNTSEXPECTED_WINWINSWIN_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
Joe Sharp1424.22214.290.590.16
Todd Pletcher1224.01216.670.690.69
Brad Cox2219.01313.640.720.29
Steven Asmussen2116.7914.760.280.05
Kenneth McPeek5016.78480.480.14
Mark Casse1715.41423.531.530.81
Brendan Walsh1615.2816.250.410.5
Eddie Kenneally1014.672201.360.63
Dale Romans1914.64421.051.440.39
Philip Sims1013.452201.490.59
Ian Wilkes1713.27529.412.221.35
George Arnold, II1112.5119.090.730.58
Thomas Amoss1111.1919.090.810.16
Victoria Oliver129.9418.330.840.18
D. Lukas109.051101.13.23
Nicholas Zito127.630000

Highlights:

  • Ian Wilkes is the standout here at 5 for 17, almost a 30% win rate and the only (relevant – Lukas winner must have been a massive price) positive ROI.
  • Top six very sharp trainers underperform relative to their expected win percentages – be careful of underlays here.
  • Overall, to me, this suggests you may not be able to rely on trainer angles for two turn dirt races.

Jockeys

Turf, two turns

JOCKEYMOUNTSEXPECTED_WINWINSWIN_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
Edgar Morales144.97321.434.315.55
Joe Bravo1112.35327.272.212.23
Jon Court104.61102.171.35
Channing Hill166.16212.52.030.83
Tyler Gaffalione259.744161.641.42
Gabriel Saez187.22211.111.540.73
Javier Castellano1223.03433.331.450.92
Adam Beschizza159.6213.331.390.57
Shaun Bridgmohan107.341101.360.38
Brian Hernandez, Jr.3910.33512.821.240.84
Jose Lezcano1115.24218.181.190.7
Julien Leparoux5412.99814.811.140.72
John Velazquez1314.84215.381.040.48
Robby Albarado398.7737.690.880.64
Jose Ortiz3921.72615.380.710.79
Florent Geroux5411.2547.410.660.44
Ricardo Santana, Jr.295.4813.450.630.37
Corey Lanerie4810.0136.250.620.84
Chris Landeros30713.330.480.11
James Graham356.4312.860.440.23
Declan Cannon174.240000
Jack Gilligan183.80000
Joseph Rocco, Jr.176.720000

Standouts:

  • Joe Bravo (small sample) appears to outperform expectations by a lot. Have heard anecdotally that he is an underrated turf rider. Nothing here disputes that (though it doesn’t confirm given the small sample).
  • Jose Ortiz has ridden a pretty significant number of races and underperforms on the win percentage relative to the expected win percentage. His ROI suggests that very short priced horses are winning, and likely that some very short priced horses are losing as well.
  • Ricardo Santana, Jr. has only won 1 of 29 races. The ROI being as high as it is (and it’s pretty low) suggests that was a higher priced horse as well. Probably an unreliable jockey in these types.
  • Only other one worth noting (and again small sample) is Javier Castellano – winning 4 of 12 (33%) – but still a slightly negative return. At least it beats the takeout.

Dirt, one turn

JOCKEYMOUNTSEXPECTED_WINWINSWIN_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
Samuel Camacho, Jr.103.973307.565.76
Rogelio Miranda103.681102.721.9
Joseph Rocco, Jr.3910.21820.512.010.91
Tyler Gaffalione2814.397251.741.35
Ty Kennedy186.88211.111.610.66
Luis Saez1611.85318.751.581.08
Declan Cannon346.6538.821.330.71
James Graham6410.46812.51.20.69
Ricardo Santana, Jr.8517.591821.181.20.87
Miguel Mena2311.12313.041.170.4
Julien Leparoux6316.281219.051.170.7
Mitchell Murrill298.98310.341.150.53
Florent Geroux5717.671119.31.090.6
Jose Lezcano1512.34213.331.080.43
Alex Canchari1711.15211.761.050.89
Robby Albarado6611.65812.121.040.67
Jon Court417.5437.320.970.39
Albin Jimenez186.415.560.870.67
Jose Ortiz4520.45817.780.870.46
C.J. McMahon167.2216.250.871.06
Calvin Borel269.1327.690.840.24
Javier Castellano1122.58218.180.810.16
Chris Landeros429.3437.140.760.63
Channing Hill2412.2328.330.680.26
Brian Hernandez, Jr.7012.9668.570.660.35
Jack Gilligan447.8124.550.580.1
Gabriel Saez389.5225.260.550.32
Corey Lanerie9015.3777.780.510.24
Edgar Morales386.3812.630.410.86
Rayan Gazader104.270000
Julie Burke163.810000
Shaun Bridgmohan16160000
Sophie Doyle115.220000
Adam Beschizza2312.950000

Observations:

  • Ricardo Santana, Jr. here is 18 for 85 and hits at 21%. ROI just beats the track take. Might command some respect.
  • Tyler Gaffalione is perhaps the standout in this type of race, hitting 25% of his races (7 for 28) and far exceeding the expected win percent his horses’ odds suggest.
  • Top two stats on here are suspect. ROIs are deceiving given the short sample. Might suggest including in horizontal wagers in spread races.

Dirt, two turns

JOCKEYMOUNTSEXPECTED_WINWINSWIN_PCTIMPACT_VALUEROI
Albin Jimenez1010.43302.887.75
Edgar Morales2510.126242.371.91
Channing Hill136.95215.382.211.48
Chris Landeros2811.57252.172.22
Ricardo Santana, Jr.3115.18825.811.71.32
Dean Sarvis106.691101.490.88
Declan Cannon207.862101.271.88
Calvin Borel108.831101.130.88
Florent Geroux3316.97618.181.070.48
Robby Albarado4319.71920.931.060.38
Tyler Gaffalione1612.28212.51.020.66
Jon Court166.1216.251.021.06
James Graham3010.483100.950.43
Shaun Bridgmohan1110.1619.090.890.4
Julien Leparoux3015.46413.330.860.52
Jose Ortiz2320.54417.390.850.49
Adam Beschizza1517.73213.330.750.15
Brian Hernandez, Jr.4614.67510.870.740.3
Corey Lanerie5216.7447.690.460.27
Luis Saez1520.3916.670.330.03
Joseph Rocco, Jr.177.860000
Jack Gilligan257.270000
C.J. McMahon115.590000
Sophie Doyle114.170000
Gabriel Saez106.250000

Eye catchers:

  • Albin Jimenez numbers, like the previous chart, seem a little too good to be true. I would give the same advice as above: be wary of the numbers, but might deserve an extra look in horizontal wagers for races that you’re spreading.
  • Ricardo Santana, Jr. seems to excel in these types, relative to the others we’ve taken a look at. The ROI and win percentage suggest that this is no joke.
  • That being said, might want to give an extra look to Edgar Morales, and Chris Landeros. Pretty decent sample and high win percentage relative to the rest of the folks on the chart.

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