photo: janet garaguso/NYRA

As the Breeders’ Cup looms at the end of the week, we wanted to take a look at how each specific jockey performs in various types of races that will be run at Santa Anita. Specifically, in this edition we will take a look at turf races that are 8 furlongs or longer.

The data below is filtered for all Breeders’ Cup races (only BC races, not all races run on BC day), since 2000, at all tracks that Breeders’ Cup races have been run.

The data

COURSEJOCKEYstartswinssecondsthirdswin_pctavg_implied_win_pctpayoutroiimpact_value
TurfJohn Velazquez6196614.759.4981.31.331.55
TurfLanfranco Dettori50102320.0011.6861.01.221.71
TurfRyan Moore4496320.4514.5069.01.571.41
TurfJavier Castellano3944610.268.2328.20.721.25
TurfJulien Leparoux373448.117.6325.40.691.06
TurfJoel Rosario341322.947.1613.40.390.41
TurfKent Desormeaux280130.006.950.00.000.00
TurfRafael Bejarano280120.004.420.00.000.00
TurfGarrett Gomez2434212.507.9828.61.191.57
TurfMike Smith241204.175.037.00.290.83
TurfEdgar Prado231244.356.9947.02.040.62
TurfRamon Dominguez212329.528.4847.22.251.12
TurfCorey Nakatani200210.005.580.00.000.00
TurfIrad Ortiz, Jr.1732117.6514.0513.80.811.26
TurfJohn Murtagh171405.8819.205.60.330.31
TurfJose Ortiz161216.256.777.60.480.92
TurfWilliam Buick1622112.5013.8516.71.040.90
TurfGary Stevens151026.678.534.50.300.78
TurfJamie Spencer140230.006.160.00.000.00
TurfJose Lezcano1422114.2910.7313.90.991.33
TurfAlex Solis131007.697.4215.21.171.04
TurfJerry Bailey1321115.3811.6912.30.951.32
TurfOlivier Peslier1331123.0816.697.50.581.38
TurfAlan Garcia111129.097.3612.71.151.24
TurfCornelio Velasquez111109.096.459.20.841.41
TurfJoseph Talamo110020.006.930.00.000.00
TurfKieren Fallon1121118.1814.535.80.531.25
TurfRobby Albarado1120018.184.8776.66.963.73
TurfMichael Kinane1022320.0017.637.80.781.13
TurfRichard Hughes1010010.0010.707.90.790.93
TurfVictor Espinoza100110.004.730.00.000.00

Observations

  1. John Velazquez shows up amongst the elite turf route riders with the likes of Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore. They all boast positive returns on dollar investments and positive impact values.
  2. Joel Rosario has only ridden one winner in Breeders’ Cup Turf routes. Pair that with a very low return on a dollar might lead me to shy away from betting him with that much confidence.
  3. Mike Smith is perhaps another surprising rider who has only gotten one win, and two placing from 24 rides. Another one I might shy away from in these types of races with a very low return of only 29 cents for every dollar bet.
  4. Further down the list, I think it’s interesting to take a look at Jose Ortiz versus Irad Ortiz. There is a major difference to point out in how heavily their horses get et, with Jose’s horses receiving far less action than Irad’s. The win percentages are vastly different, though, and the ROIs are also significantly different.

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