With JK hungover after the Eclipse Awards, Sean Boarman is an emergency pinch hitter as he and PTF go over Saturday’s Late Pick 5 at Aqueduct.
I am not a multirace bettor (too rich for my bankroll), but I am interested in the math and statistics of it all. Something you said on today’s show struck me. Rather than evaluating performance based on the overall outcome of multirace betting (too much variance), wouldn’t the horseplayer be better off keeping track of the outcome of the invidual races in a sequence and looking at how many races produced positive equity and how many did not (e.g., race not hit or favorite wins spread race)?. I’m not sure how to define positive versus negative equity (probably some comparison of the win price with the number of horses included), but once you get over that hurdle, you can start to answer some basic questions. Am I, on average, producing positive equity? If not, what is dragging down my average? Overspreading? Too many losing singles? Betting sequences with too many spread races? Just food for thought as you approach a deeper dive into multirace betting.
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