Woodbine 6/28/2020 – Coatney Review

The Recap

Another Time busted all our bets yesterday as the top choice of the day had the easy lead and couldn’t keep a straight path in the last 16th. We lost by a neck. I still believe this one will become a graded stakes winner when the year is out. Overall, we felt good with our plays, linking everything to that horse in pick threes. Our win bet didn’t get placed as the 4-1 odds (which drifted down to 2-1 after 100 yards away from the gate) was way too short for the probability of the win.

Race 7: OC $15k 5f (T)

This looks like a throw down between the two speed balls on the outside with #6 Constantino and #7 Big League. If #9 Real News draws in, we have to start looking for a stalker as all the outside speed vying for position will open the door for a closer.

  • Best Value: #4 Crawl From the Bar (20-1 but expect 8-1 or so) Love the look of this one: 2nd off a nice layoff for the 4 year old, unexposed form, back form that suggests there’s more, and the cut back in distance. This one’s figures are a touch below the rest, but for the reasons mentioned, we think there’s upside.
  • Most Logical: #6 Constantino (5/2) Looks to be the best speed signed on. Likely gets the rail or a 2 wide trip with the only other speed threat inside being the #1 San Nicola Thunder. The strong work outs are a positive for this 10 year old runner.
  • Beatable Favorite: #7 Big League (2-1) Tried turf five times and has yet to win one. The last effort was strong and we think there might be a bounce coming for this one. With the short rest, the tiring effort last, and unknowns with the turf performances, we’ll stand against.
  • Must Use If #9 Real News draws in: #1 San Nicola Thunder (4-1) Will get a perfect stalking trip with the outside speeds using energy to get their positions. The figures fit perfectly and has not had a hot pace to run into since this time last year in a $60k OC, according to TimeForm US.

Race 8: OC $40k 6f (T)

This race is an absolute mess. Right when you think you find a good horse, there’s a knock: strong pace figures but on the wrong surface; great back class tussling with the likes of Amalfi Coast but has been on the bench for half a year; or ran a great winning race but was flattered by an absolute pace collapse (#5 Princess Fabiana).

  • Best Value: #1 Discreet Bear (20-1) With no real speed, Brian Cheyne might find himself alone on the lead. Digging way back, you find this runner has comparable figures at the distance on grass (around the 90-ish TimeForm US mark). With all the knocks we listed below, there is likely to be a market inequality for this runner who is not an impossible winner. To boot, you get some amazing bullet works and a second off the bench attempt.
  • Most Logical: #4 West Paw (6-1) Great debut back to the races this month. Cassee might have left a little something more in the tank. This is the only intentional speed I see. My only knock on the horse was the pace collapse that happened in last race. But considering West Paw was close enough to it, we will assume the pace wasn’t too much of a favor.
  • Beatable: #5 Princess Fabrina (3-1) Got an absolute setup last time and the longer distance will not help. I’m staying away.

 

Race 9: Alw $100k n1x 5f (T)

Fun race to watch unfold with a few interesting story lines. The Casse runners were workmates last out (wish I knew who looked better) and a few long layoff types (the reoccurring theme).

  • Most Logical: #4 Roman d’Oro (4-1) we might be reading into the jockey assignment too much, but considering Kimura gets the leg up for the two Casse runners, I have to imagine he thinks this one has the best shot. Ran a respectable debut effort on turf, broke the maiden, then went straight into the deep end with the graded stakes stretch out. Comes back to earth today in class and distance and looks ready to run based on workouts.
  • Best Value: #2 Systematic Risk (15-1) Debuted after long layoff with a wide draw, held the lead and was passed late in the stretch by some of these runners. With the inside draw today and a surface change (as well as the inner turf that we believe holds speed better as the tighter turns prohibit big moves before the stretch) should have a much better advantage.
  • Honorable Mention: #6 Betwixting (2-1) Was ridden like a stakes horse last time out, dropping back and making a sweeping move to win the race at 1/5. Gets stiffer competition today but has improved figures in every start. At the price this one will be today I can’t trust the long layoff and the first try on grass. With that said, I’m scared of this one.

 

Race 10: Moc $40k 6f (T)

This one seems pretty straight forward.

  • Most Logical: #3 Lords of Legends (8-1) Showed great improvement after the long layoff, battling a hot pace with the wide draw. Today should be more fit and get the easy lead and the rail.
  • Next Best: Late Scratch #4 Waltzing Champ (5/2) The replay was very strange. Gets an easy lead, top of the stretch looks like dropping anchor, but the horse continues to carry speed as the jockey only gives a few shakes of the reigns as a reminder – looking as if just a paid workout for this runner. But in the last 1/16th, continues firing and may have placed if not pushed harder by the jockey. The big question is why those events played out the way they did. Was the horse not feeling sound, did the trainer instruct to just work the horse, did the jockey think closers were charging fast (when they really didn’t), etc.

 

Wagering Approach: Budget $36.20

There’s great value with Discreet Bear (20-1) and Crawl from the Bar (20-1) but we don’t feel confident enough to put in win bets. We’ll be spreading across a pick four sequence where we believe the anchor leg will be a single now with the late scratch of #4 Waltzing Champ. The #3 will get an easy lead and should get the job done at a nice price.

Race7: Pick Four $36.20

  • $2 base bet: 4,6 w 4 w 4,6 w 3 ($8 total)
  • $3 base bet: 4,6 w 4 w 4 w 3 ($6 total)
  • $3 base bet: 4,6 w 1 w 4 w 3 ($6 total)
  • $2 base bet: 4,6 w 4 w 2 w 3 ($4 total)
  • $1 base bet: 4,6 w 1 w 2 w 3 ($2 total)
  • $1 base bet: 1 w 4 w 4 w 3 ($1 total)
  • $1 base bet: 1 w 1 w 4 w 3 ($1 total)
  • $1 base bet: 1 w 4 w 2 w 3 ($1 total)
  • $0.20 base bet: 1,4,6 w 1,4 w 2,4,6 w 3,7 ($7.20 total) – saver

Meet Stats as of 6/28/2020

  • Meet ROI: -$176.25
  • Wagered $291.00
  • Won: $114.75

*see ticketmaker.drf.com for more ticket making information

Author
coatney3

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