Remember when you were a kid and couldn’t get to sleep in anticipation of something BIG happening the next day? The Big Game. The Big Dance. The Big gift under the tree?? Good times, right? Well, horseplayers haven’t been sleeping for the past few nights in preparation for this one!
A great day of racing
10 Races from iconic Keeneland Race Course
6 Graded Stakes
3 Grade 1s
3 Grade 2s
100 Kentucky Derby points on the line in the G2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
Premier Live Money Handicapping Contest – Keeneland’s Grade One Gamble
Live Money Format
Top place finishers place finishers win coveted – BCBC Seats and or NHC Seats and along with prize money.
Let’s take a look at the races and build a strategy around our strongest opinions; maybe come up with a few concepts that contest players would use.
KEE RACE 1. 11/16 Mile. Mdn 70k
Top value choice in the race looks to be #8Looking At Liberty – Solid closing pace ability in first two starts. – M/L is 3-1 – If post time odds or at or above 3-1 – I would place this horse in a trifecta wheel on top and in second over a few others in the field that look to be finishers but not winners.
Race 1: Tri $A 8/5,1/2,4,9
Race 1: Tri $B 1,5/8/2,4,9
KEE RACE 2. 6 Furlongs. Mdn 70k
Borrowing the immortal lyrics of Don Schlitz (performed masterfully by the late great Kenny Rodgers) “If you’re gonna play the game, boy. You gotta learn to play it right. You’ve got to know when to hold ’em. Know when to fold ’em”
With 11 first time starters in a field of 12 – I will order me a whiskey during the running of this race and enjoy the beauty of the equine athletes.
KEE RACE 3. 6½ Furlongs. Alw 77000n1x
Lots of promising, lightly raced 3yr old fillies in this spot. #9 Crown Jewel seems to be the standout of the field for Asmussen. Interesting at possible prices are #10 Nayibeth and #11 Slam Dunk – Include the AE #13 Sense of Place as well, if this son of Blame makes it to the starting gate.
Let’s keep in mind the horses that we like in this race and look ahead to next to for a potential Daily Double. The Daily Double Probably Will Pays from the Tote board is a great way to look for value.
KEE RACE 4. 1 Mile. (Turf) Applachn-G2
#4 Alms is the one to beat in this race. – Quick Rant: – I hear my kids are saying “Oh no!” 🙂 Value doesn’t always have to be a long shot horse or a big number on the Tote board. – For example if we really think that Alms is the real deal. – Utilizing him in this race and playing finding a longer priced horse in other races around this one is a strategy to help you turn that 4-5 into 4-1
Race 3: $A DD 10, 11 / 4
“Put your money where your opinion is!” In this case let’s look back at Race 3. Let’s play a sizable Daily Double with the #10 Nayibeth and #11 Slam Dunk into the #4 Alms in this Race
KEE RACE 5. 7 Furlongs. Madison-G1
At first glace this looked to be a open and shut postulation similarly to Race 4, but after looking closely at the numbers and factoring distance and the pace there could be a possibility for someone other than the two big names. Without getting deep into the weeds I like #8 Bell’s the One and #2 Wildwood’s Beauty; of course #5 Guarana and #7Mia Mischief are to be respected.
Race 4: $A DD 4/ 2, 8
Race 5: $A EX 5,7 /2, 8
Again we will leverage our strong opinion of #4 Alms in Race 4 and play a good amount towards a Daily Double with 8 Bell’s the One and #2 Wildwood’s Beauty. – We will also place an Exacta with Strong over Possible.
KEE RACE 6 . 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Shakrtwn-G2
I won’t quote another song in an attempt to say that maybe we shouldn’t play this race but it will be a tough one from value standpoint. #2 Wildman Jack seems to be the speed of the speed on paper and with Big Money Mike Smith aboard, he will be favored. – We have utilized the Double Daily wager a couple of times previously in an effort to create value, please feel free use it again here.
KEE RACE 7. 1 Mile. Ashland-G1
#2 Venetian Harbor looks to take this group of 3yr olds from gate to wire. Her speed is superior but she wants be on the front, one possible angle is her Jockey for this race. Joel Rosario is not known for his aggressive rides on the front end, conversely he is a very good patient rider. Should we take a shot against the 6/5 morning line favorite?
Race 7: $A Win 3
Of course we should! Allowing the Tote to be our guide – I would recommend taking a look at #3 Bonny South she will be running late and could make things interesting.
KEE RACE 8. 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) JenyWily-G1
Once again we are looking for a horse other than the prospective favorite – Can she lose? Yeeees BUT. #4 Rushing Fall Looks like another run away winner – She is just that good. 2nd off the Bench she could potentially run better than last time. Scary Good.
Let’s go ahead to the next race.
KEE RACE 9. 1 1/8 Mile. BlueGras-G2
#7 Swiss Skydiver is taking on the boys as 13 – 3yr olds line up for a chance at to run in this years Kentucky Derby. I think she has a real shot. Let’s look at a few others and see what we can come up with. #10 Rushie and #3 Art Collector are also very likely win candidates with versatile running styles. With so much on the line and many of these runners preferring to run on or near the front – I am projecting at least a moderate pace. The runner that I will key a few wagers around will be the #1 Shivaree – if the betting public forgets about him and he gets around 10-1 on the Tote – I would recommend putting a nice win bet on him.
Race 9: $A Win 1 Race 9: $A Ex 1,7 /3,10 Race 9: $A Tri 1/3,7,10/4,5,8 Race 9: $B Tri 3,7/1,10/4,5,8