PTF posting for @blinkersoff420.
At Santa Anita today is a force payout of the pick 6 jackpot wager. My concept for today’s write up is to find one horse each race to consider with odds at 7-2 and greater. Hitting one, two or even a few of these types can lead to knocking a whole lot of other players in the pool out and a possible life changing return. In particular a race where you will have heavy action on a ML favorite, who ends up running 2nd or just not showing up. Best of luck in all of your action today!
Race 5 State Bred – Fillies – Md 50000 (50-45) – 6 1/2F – 3 YO
#6 Big Chick (15-1)
Coming back to the 6 ½ distance after racing on opening day is a 3-year-old sire from Mr. Big with the dam being Quick Chick. The field looks rather weak, so do not let the 37 Beyer number scare you away. She showed speed and faded last out but 4 workouts since then and Quick Chick’s progeny is a 4 of 9 winner sprinting on the dirt.
Race 6 Allowance 63000 N1X – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf – 4 ^
#5 Three Ay Em (5-1)
Betting Umberto Rispoli all day at 5-1 odds is something I would sign up for. The late 109 TimeFormUS pace # is off the charts but the question is will there be enough speed to set up a close. If we can get the #4, Offshore Affair to get loose, set some fractions up then the horse Umberto rode last the three out might help the case to winning aboard Three Ay Em.
Race 7 The San Vicente, Grade II, $200k – 7 Furlongs – 3 YO
#4 Uncle Boogie (12-1)
A six-horse field will go the fun distance, which is how my reference to 7-furlong races. Right smack in the middle of the sprint / routing race distance which may be just long enough to produce a close from Uncle Boogie. Yes, the speed numbers are quite lower than others in the field and in that department, improvement will have to shoot through the roof. The only closer in a race where there looks to be a lot of speed signed up and at a 12-1 morning line.
Race 8 The Thunder Road, Grade III, $100k – 1 Mile – Turf – 4 ^
#5 Campaign (8-1)
Another pace dependent horse but in this field a few others will be counting on the #1 & #7 carving out fractions to run at. He is a classy six-year-old who has won twice on the turf out of 4 attempts and spent last spring in Hot Springs, Arkansas. She is back home to the west coast and might be more comfortable. At 8-1 odds my gut is willing to find out and will include on my pick 6 ticket.
Race 9 Clm 16000 (16-12.5) N2L – 6 ½ Furlong – 4 ^
#9 Squalotoro (6-1)
There looks to be quite a bit of speed drawn to the inside and the finish last out leaned me towards the 4-year-old colt. The last race produced a next out 2nd place finisher in Defense Wins. Others from the race have not ran and it might not seem like much, but Defense Wins put up a 74 Beyer, if Squalotoro can improve just a bit like that he can win. It might be a stretch for an angle but in a wide-open race I am digging to find an edge that makes some sort of sense.
Race 10 F – Md 50000 (50-45) – Turf 3 YO
If you watched the Peter Eurton trained Lady Mystify yesterday, then you may catch what I am saying. If we can get ½ the effort shown there, then we might be able to close out a pick 6 sequence with a decent price. Others will be thinking this too, but with a huge field there should be enough money to spread all around and a 7-2 ML price to stick. If you have a really good friend who thinks he is always right you might want to give him a $2 win ticket as well for fun, Jimmy Flynn.
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