It’s a tremendous day of racing at Gulfstream at Saturday and we’ve got you covered on audio, in video, and in print. Over on attheraces.com, I did horse-by-horse analyses of the two Grade 1s, I’ll link to them here when we get there, but I wanted to take a run through many of the other races as well. I always find that it helps my wagering to have actual physical notes on the races I plan to bet.
I’ll start with race 3, which kicks off the middle Pick 5. This bet has player friendly terms (15% takeout) and I want to at least take a long look.
#3 RISK TOLERANCE is a lightly raced, progressive runner for Chad Brown making his way through conditions. He has recency, and while he’s maybe not quite as fast as a couple of today’s rivals who are coming off layoffs, I think there’s a chance he can get the best trip.
#5 MI BAGO is one-dimensional speed, but that style can play well at Gulfstream, and he’s been gelded since his last run. Perhaps Irad can coax a little more out of him. We’ll probably pay a bit of an “Irad tax” on that proposition but I’m using him if only to not feel a little ill when he’s clear as they turn for home.
#12 CLEVER MISCHIEF got the worst of the draw but he’s still a little interesting. He had a useful prep back in December and this will be his second run off a long layoff. He also might have enough positional foot to slot in behind Mi Bago and get a good trip despite the tricky post.
#2 BATTLE OF NORMANDY is probably the best horse in the race based on his body of work, but he hasn’t been out in a year and will be the fav. While I don’t think Shug McGaughey is putting himself in a position to embarrass himself by bringing a short horse to the party on a big day, I also can’t imagine he’ll be ready to run his best race. In an ideal world, he’d be included on some tickets, but I want to make him a “soft fade” for now given the three I like better.
Race 4
#9 FOR FLYING might get the right kind of setup to turn the form around with Fantasy Performer and my read is that For Flying just didn’t stay the 10 furlongs two back against Dancing In Dixie.
#12 A LILAC ROLLA has some huge back races and while she’s disappointed stateside, she will finally be a price and has some finish.
#1 BROWN SUGAR has some dirty form but there’s a story to tell about her. He’s second off the layoff, well-drawn, and his two siblings to run on synth got over the stuff just fine.
Could spread deeper here, it’s tricky.
Race 5
The first of seven graded stakes on the card is the Grade 3 Christophe Clement stakes.
#4 NO SHOW SAMMY JO looks like a favorite to be with. She showed an affinity for this turf course last time and is in excellent form overall. She had a big excuse two back when against the flow. With the internal fractions she’s put in going 11 furlongs, I don’t see 12 as any sort of issue.
#9 WEIGHTED AVERAGE looks a reasonable alternative. She’s a couple of noses from having won four in a row and on her blood (English Channel x Kitten’s Joy) and form, you can argue more ground should bring out the best in her. I also like that she’s got positional speed. Seems to always get buried at the windows but should be a decent price here.
Race 6
#1 SIEGE OF BOSTON gets a meaningful drop in class and his lone outing on synthetic suggests he handles the surface just fine. Has a cozy draw and the right blend of tactical speed and finish to get a perfect trip.
#6 HORSEPOWER was a good second in and around some nice horses last time at Turfway. I like that he’s shown versatility in terms of running style, but think the best move here will be to get a good forward position. I think he can prove to be the best speed.
#4 JOKESTAR has run two pretty good races at graded level on synth north of the border and he was against the flow last time, closing into blue fractions on TimeformUS. He’s a contender.
#5 PRIVATE THOUGHTS has shown an admirable consistency at this level, finishing in the exacta eight starts in a row. He’s got a bit to find with the best of these but I still think he goes with a big chance at what could be a price.
Race 7
Listed Turf Sprint Stake
Was happy to see our old pal #11 COPPOLA among the entries. I’ve long held that this is exactly what he wants – firm ground and the flying five furlongs.
#3 LITIGATION comes here off a couple of tough trips – that’s always going to be a danger for an off the pace runner going these sharp distances but I can’t shake the idea that he’s been a bit unlucky. I’d like to keep him on side.
Race 8
Start of the Rainbow Six Mandatory Payout with $4 million expected in the pool
Grade 3 Hooper
#6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE is the obvious choice based on figures and form. And I love that he has shown the ability to pass runners and that he’s drawn outside of his main rival. Should be able to get an absolutely perfect trip – unless it ends up being an inside-speed day, in which case that dynamic will flip.
There will be a whole lot of money running through #1 LIFE AND TIMES and it’s easy to see why: two starts, two starts, two big figs, two imperious wins. He’s got the speed to make the front but he’s never faced a rival like Knightsbridge before. Still, I’m enough of a figure monkey that I don’t think I can leave him out.
R9
Start of the Late Pick 5, 15% takeout, $1.875 million expected in the pool.
Also starts the Player-Friendly Tropical Turf Pick 3, connecting the last three turf races at GP (9-10-12 on this card)
G3 McKnight
I’ll go with #3 OHANA HONOR as the top pick – his Manhattan third in ‘24 might be the best bit of form on offer. Looked great in the Knickerbocker last out but that did come courtesy of a perfect trip. I will also note that he was running in the fastest part of the race — it wasn’t a suckup win. His high figure came at this distance, adding to his appeal.
#6 MISSED THE CUT has a local prep, races to run back to, and decent 12 furlong form. That’s enough to work him on some tickets.
#11 DIVIN PROPOS ran a career high fig in his third start for Saffie over this course and does have a nice run at stakes level going 12. He’s another who can win.
JK had the #1 ZVEREV, among his picks, and I’ll admit I could see him being the latest Maker claim to win a graded stake on turf.
R10
Start of the Player-Friendly Coast-to-Coast and Sunset Six Wagers
(Sequence for C2C: GP: R10,12,13 / SA: R6,7, as always, Sunset Six is the last three races at GP and SA)
Grade 2 Pegasus FM Turf
There are a lot of ways you can go here.
I thought that maybe #9 CREVALLE D’ORO could get the best trip with her blend of tactical speed and finish so went with her on top.
#11 IN OUR TIME has a chance to wire them for the always dangerous combination of Saffie Joseph Jr and Irad Ortiz Jr.
#4 BREATH AWAY seems like the figure and form horse – and is a flow move up out of the last. Will they go fast enough to set up her late run? That’s enough of a question where I’ll use her but won’t hey her.
#6 CAITLINHERGREATNESS has form that ties in closely with Breath Away and she’s at least as good on turf as synth. She’s a hard tryer I wouldn’t mind keeping on side but she could be more pointing to targets down the road. Kevin Attard is a great trainer but only 2 for 57 and 30% ITM at GP last five years. Deep backup.
Grade 1s
Click below for my full horse-by-horse writeups of the Grade 1s
Race 11
Race 12
