Breeders’ Cup Blog: Europe, You’re Up

In case you missed it, here‘s the first post of this series looking at the Classic, Turf and Mile. Today I’ll be focusing on the best of the Euros in the Turf Sprint and Filly & Mare Turf – first though, some updates from last week’s racing.

There was only one Win And You’re In race, the Prix Morny at Deauville where Aidan O’Brien’s Whistlejacket made all the running. He was always in a good rhythm against the favoured near rail on ground that wasn’t as fast as expected after rain – trainer John Gosden described it as tacky and holding on Sky Sports Racing. The last 3 winners of this race have all followed up in the Middle Park and he’ll be the one to beat there, but I’m not as confident as his trainer was after the race that he’ll be suited by the test of the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Aidan’s repeated lauding of Whistlejacket’s speed felt like a sales pitch for the colt’s future stud career – to me, he looked uncomfortable letting himself down on fast ground both times he faced it in the Phoenix and the Norfolk, and it’s telling that he has been kept to 6f since looking short of pace for 5f even at a stiff track like Ascot. I don’t think a turning 5f on quick ground at Del Mar will suit him at all and he’d have better options staying in Europe.

Shareholder, on the other hand, will be suited by the Del Mar test if connections choose to keep the faith and aim high despite running a shocker in the Morny and finishing last. He never settled at the slower tempo upped to 6f for the first time and was possibly overly fresh after two months off. He probably also hated the tacky ground having only raced on good to firm previously. James Doyle wasn’t hard on him when beaten and he’s well capable of bouncing back on a going day with conditions in his favour. Though connections could consider the dirt as he’s by Not This Time, their costs are already covered for the Juvenile Turf Sprint, as a winner of the WAYI Norfolk, so that looks the best option.

Runner-up Rashabar was always poorly placed through the race and had to challenge on the unfavoured far wing, so did well to close to within 3/4 of a length. He’s a likely Breeders’ Cup contender, but at the mile distance of the Juvenile Turf given that he shapes like a step up in distance will suit. Trainer Brian Meehan has mentioned Del Mar as a target more than once, and he coped well with the fast ground when winning the Coventry at Royal Ascot so he’s one to keep in mind.

In a recent interview with Sportinglife.com about his York runners, Aidan O’Brien mentioned that River Tiber (33/1) is now being aimed at the BC Mile following unsuccessful tries at shorter distances which haven’t suited him. He hasn’t had a lot of luck since looking the best 2yo around when winning the Coventry at Royal Ascot last year, as a setback after the race hampered his preparation for the Morny, and he was a late vet scratch when favourite for last year’s Juvenile Turf. He was only 1.5 lengths behind Rosallion when 3rd in the Irish Guineas, conceding race fitness to the first two, so isn’t far off the required level. Hopefully he can’t step in the same river twice and will get the vets’ all-clear to run this time – any 20/1+ appeals.

Stablemate Continuous (20/1 BC Turf) bounced back to form to win the Group 3 Royal Whip Stakes comfortably at the Curragh on Saturday. Aidan sees him as very versatile apparently, with possible options all around the world from 10f to 2 miles, while all types of ground seem to come alike. One of these could well be the Turf, but the Japan Cup is another possible since he’s by legendary Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – this could in turn free up last year’s winner Auguste Rodin (8/1) to switch targets from Japan to the Turf.

All eyes on York’s Ebor Festival now with a brilliant week of racing kicking off tomorrow, including four WAYI races, which I’ll review next week. (For Plus subscribers, I’ll also be writing a daily York diary on the Substack.)

Turf Sprint

Big Evs (4/1) has trained on well and really developed this year, looking both speedier and more amenable to early restraint if a rival sets off too quickly. While he should take in a few of Europe’s big sprints along the way after a light enough season so far, with the Nunthorpe on Friday his next target, connections have had this race in mind ever since last year’s Juvenile Turf success and he’s Europe’s standout hope.

The Australian mare Asfoora (8/1) has been trained in Newmarket this summer and has acquitted herself very well in some of the top sprint races. Trainer Henry Dwyer confirmed to Racing.com at Royal Ascot that the Breeders’ Cup was very much in their plans now that she’d won the WAYI King Charles III Stakes to fund the trip. Her form ties in closely with Big Evs, who she’ll meet for a third time in the Nunthorpe after a win each this summer, and she’s obviously a leading chance. However the very sharp speed test at Del Mar might just leave her with too much to do as was the case at Goodwood last time, though she was anchored with a 5lb Group 1 penalty in fairness.

Similar comments apply to Believing (16/1) who had a 3lb penalty at Goodwood that day but wasn’t far behind them. While her main aim will be the Flying Five at the Curragh on September 15th, she doesn’t like soft ground so could miss October’s Abbaye and British Champions Day if they get rain and come to Del Mar instead – she’s capable of running into the placings late on.

Inisherin (7/1) and Elite Status (12/1) both represent owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum, trained by Kevin Ryan and Karl Burke respectively. As far as I can tell, the owner has had very limited success in America in more than 25 years of high-profile ownership, which is obviously a huge concern for their prospects of making the journey. He seems to have ruled out Rosallion from the Mile already after his little setback.

They’d both be much happier over an extra furlong – Inisherin, who looked great at Ascot but disappointed in the July Cup, started at a mile and has never tried 5f. Elite Status has a nasty habit of knocking his sesamoid in exercise and the resulting sore foot explains his poor runs at the end of last season. He did it again the day before the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and had to be scratched, so is clearly a risky horse to travel long distances for a run. It’s hard to be positive about the prospects of either.

This race looks a very suitable target for Star of Mystery (12/1), who has made an excellent start to her career in the USA with a slightly unlucky 3rd place finish in the Grade 1 Jaipur and a Grade 3 win at Saratoga. She can be a handful in the prelims but behaved better last time and has broken on terms both times, having often been tardily away previously. She has ground to make up on Cogburn but the likely speed war up front will suit and she’ll be running on late.  Mischief Magic (16/1) needs to brush up on his starts after another slow one when a disappointing favourite at Colonial Downs recently. He’s probably best over a little further and might find everything happening too quickly for him unless the pace really collapses.

Vandeek (14/1) is a very talented sprinter at his best but he’s had an interrupted year with injury, and has unfortunately suffered another setback since his 3rd in the July Cup. A turning 5f on fast ground is too sharp a speed test for him anyway so he’s a very unlikely runner.

Live In The Dream (20/1) put up a bold show in this race last year leading into the final furlong and has had excuses for some defeats this season. He stumbled out of the stalls and tried to make all into a strong headwind at Haydock, then a bad draw and another headwind at Sandown meant more patient tactics were tried which backfired. Trainer Adam West reported on ITV Racing recently that he’d changed things up at home after that, and he has since run well at Glorious Goodwood. Given the expense of travel, a WAYI Nunthorpe victory to get his costs covered would be ideal, but hopefully he’ll make the trip anyway and on a going day his raw speed makes him a danger to all.

A setback ruled Bradsell (unquoted) out of Dubai and the first half of the European season but, after his excellent return at Deauville recently, he should be set for a full schedule in the second half. This could include another trip to the Breeders’ Cup, having been a late scratch last year. It’s strange that he’s not quoted in the betting as he’s only 8/1 for the Nunthorpe, and at his best he’s right in the mix. If bookmakers are writing off his chances, any 16/1+ would appeal.

Filly & Mare Turf

Coolmore’s Opera Singer (6/1) has been considered a future Arc winner by connections since last year’s brilliant win in the Marcel Boussac. If the ground at Longchamp isn’t too soft she’ll go there, possibly via the Prix Vermeille, though she’ll also have options on Irish Champions Weekend. However, if there is a lot of rain, she could leave the Arc to better-suited stablemates and target Del Mar instead. She had the run of the race in front in the Nassau but doesn’t have to lead, and is improving through the year, as she did last season, which culminated in that Boussac romp. She’ll be the one to beat if she runs, but there must also be a chance she could switch to the Turf if the stable’s colts aim elsewhere or if she wins the WAYI Arc.

Stablemate Content (14/1) would be a handy substitute – her last two runs have been all about teaching her to settle as she stretches out in distance. This has been largely successful with the extra ground suiting, though steadying her back to a poor position meant she was an unlucky 2nd in the Irish Oaks last time when not getting the gaps in time. She looks well set up to have a big autumn and her best run of last season came when a close 4th in the Juvenile Fillies Turf so conditions will suit. She’ll have the chance to earn her place in the WAYI Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday.

Ylang Ylang (16/1) is another possible. Aidan O’Brien told the Racing Post before her Leopardstown return earlier this month that he was hoping to go for the Matron next and then on to the Breeders’ Cup. However plans may now be up in the air, as she trailed in a well beaten 7th, though there were legitimate excuses. The trainer was clear that she’d need the run after a break having torn muscles in the Oaks – she drifted accordingly in the betting and wasn’t given a hard time at all after missing the break and failing to secure a good early position in a race that didn’t set up for closers. She’ll need to show much more next time to make the trip to Del Mar, but all is not lost.

Bluestocking (7/2) heads to the Juddmonte tomorrow, which is a brave decision from connections (and race sponsors) who had the easier option of the Yorkshire Oaks available the following day. She’s an improved performer this year having done well physically from 3 to 4, strengthening into her big frame. However connections are keen to avoid very fast ground and she has done best at galloping tracks such as York, Ascot and the Curragh, so would prefer a less sharp track and more ease than Del Mar will provide. She’ll have more suitable options at British Champions Day just two weeks before so looks very unlikely to make the trip.

Last year’s winner Inspiral (8/1) is in a tricky spot at the moment. She doesn’t seem to operate early in the season and bad weather in the spring left the yard’s fillies and mares particularly behind schedule, so she can be excused a poor effort in the Lockinge, while a strongly-run 10f Prince of Wales’s at Ascot looked to stretch her stamina. She ran better when 3rd in the Jacques Le Marois for new jockey Ryan Moore, having blown the start badly and been forced to challenge widest of all, and John Gosden seems keen to keep going with her usual best part of the season still to come.

Owner-breeders Cheveley Park Stud seem less sure and have announced their intention to see how she comes out of the race before committing to more, fearing that temperament issues inherited from her dam are emerging. I wondered about this when she blew the QEII start in October 2022, but then she had a great season last year, so I’m reluctant to write her off now. If she does continue racing, it’ll be the Sun Chariot on October 5th next with a possible trip to Del Mar if it goes well.

The 11f distance of the F&M race this year compared to last year’s 10f is a negative for her chances, though it’s hard to see her beating the top colts in the Mile giving lengths away at the start. Maybe they’ll swerve both entirely. One positive though could be the return of Frankie Dettori in the saddle, who always got a brilliant tune out of her.

Progressive stablemates Friendly Soul (12/1) and Queen Of The Pride (16/1) will have the chance to earn their spots in the race in the WAYI Prix de l’Opera and WAYI Yorkshire Oaks respectively and would both be live runners if making the trip. Friendly Soul needs fast ground so might have to miss her French target if the ground turns soft, but she’s likely to make the trip to Del Mar regardless for her legendary American owner-breeder George Strawbridge.

Sparkling Plenty (12/1) shaped well when 3rd in the Nassau after trouble at the start and handled the fast ground fine, but she’s aiming for the Arc and has had a long season so seems unlikely to travel. Mqse De Sevigne (10/1) is an admirable mare who has been mopping up ordinary French Group 1s by narrow margins in recent years but her owner, Baron Edouard De Rothschild, stated after the Prix D’Ispahan win in May that the Arc would be her last run.  Porta Fortuna (10/1) will presumably be aimed at the Mile as outlined last week.

Cinderella’s Dream (12/1) is an exciting prospect for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, having won 6 of her 7 races now with her only defeat a creditable 7th from a difficult draw in the 1000 Guineas. She has seemed well suited to American racing with wins quickening from off the pace in the Belmont and Saratoga Oaks, breaking the course record in the former. She is settling better than she used to and it’s hard to know where her improvement could end, though the 11f distance here is probably her maximum so she isn’t a definite runner.