By The Numbers – Matt Vagvolgyi – ITM Plus Preview

Welcome to By the Numbers! Each week I will provide a broad array of statistics from tracks and horses across the country. This information is not intended to replace but rather complement your current handicapping strategy. The idea of the analysis is to help identify key horses around the country and decide whether to play or stay away. Look for more in-depth research on ITM Plus.

Let me know any statistical angles you would like to see @BlinkersOn22. Best of Luck!

Track: Gulfstream

Race: #8

Horse: #9 Prayer Book

ML: 7/2

First-time starter for Todd Pletcher teamed up with Irad Ortiz. Tough to gauge pace scenario but works have shown speed and should be forwardly placed routing first time on the turf. The connections are the key here and especially the results we have seen thus far at Gulfstream Park.

  • Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz with First Time Starters Last Yaer = 23 Starts / 35% Wins / +29% ROI. Over the last 5 Years 40 Starts / 33% Wins / 32% ROI
  • Todd Pletcher and Irad together with FTS Routing on the turf = This meet so far at Gulfstream have produced 25% winners and +83% ROI
  • Both together with First-time starters have landed a solid 57% ITM

 

Track: Gulfstream

Race: #9

Horse: #3 Honey Pants

ML: 3/1

Third time out for this runner on the turf from Clement teamed up with Irad Ortiz. Honey Pants just missed last time out stalking the pace against similar foes today. Pace projection should have this horse sitting just off the early pace which looks to be moderate. Both middle and late pace figures look superior to this group and being close to the pace has proven key thus far at GP routing on the turf. Irad Ortiz has perfected this distance thus far here on the turf along with horses running style and post position make for some key stats to consider.

  • Irad Ortiz  1 Mile Turf at Gulfstream Winter meet = 18 Starts / 39% wins / +23% ROI
  • Horse Best Late Pace 1 Mile at GP winter meet on the Turf = 121 Starts / 24% wins / +11% ROI
  • Sippers from Aqueduct last 2 weeks heating up = 32 starts / 22% wins / +3% ROI
  • Inside posts 3 or less with best late pace last 2 weeks = 17 starts / 29% wins / +28% ROI

 

Track: Fair Grounds

Race: #2

Horse: #3 Taking Notes

ML: 9/2

Stepping up in class today for Shane Wilson but early speed is where you want to be on the dirt at FG so far this winter. 2nd off a layoff after destroying much less by 9 ½ going a mile here at FG. Jack Gilligan stays abord and pace projection should put this horse right on the lead. Taking notes commands best average pace figures with best numbers early, middle, and late pace.

  • Dirt routes at FG with Early run style and class edge last year = 24 starts / 24% wins / +6% ROI
  • Short sample but horse with both best early and late pace this meet = 4 starts / 43% wins / +7% ROI and 86% ITM
  • Trainer Shane Wilson moving up in class at this distance = 64 starts / 22% wins / +22% ROI
  • Wilson after a win in claiming races = 44 starts / 18% wins / +18% ROI

 

Track: Santa Anita

Race: #5

Horse: #4 Majestic Steps

ML: 6/1

Shipping in from Ireland first off trainer change for Phil D’Amato. Phil gives the call to Umberto Rispoli and connections may prove key here. Tough predicting pace here given the presence of several first-time starters but Majestic Steps should be mid-pack or just off the pace. Seems this horse is being trained into fitness and the addition of Lasix may be a key edge. Looking to produce race two back which should handle this group today. Might fly under the radar and get more than the 6/1 ML.

  • Horses shipping in from overseas adding Lasix for the 1st time on Turf over last year = 22 starts / 18% wins / +55% ROI / 56% ITM
  • D’Amato and Rispoli teaming up on the Turf over last year = 28 starts / 32% wins / +85% ROI / 56% ITM
  • D’Amato 61-180 days off 1st Lasix produced 66 starts / 18% wins / +27% ROI

 

Track: Santa Anita

Race: #7

Horse: #7 Bowies Hero

ML: 6/1

Another Phil D’Amato runner this time teaming up with Flavien Prat in the Grade II San Gabriel. Should sit a great trip sitting behind the pacesetters in second fray going 1 1/8th on the Turf. Bowies Hero shows top class and top average speed and top 3 early and middle pace will put this horse perfectly in striking range down the lane. Bowies Hero gets the right set up and field to take down this Grade II.

  • Trainer Jockey Combo has proven successful in Graded Stakes races on Turf over last 5 years = 52 starts / 25% wins / +22% ROI / 56% ITM
  • Flavien Prat has proven a specialist at 1 1/8th on the Turf at Santa Anita over last year = 25 starts / 24% wins / +65% ROI
  • Same details for the winter meet thus far at SA = 7 starts / 29% wins / +239% ROI
  • Prat proving Jockey for course with overall starts at SA this meet = 53 starts / 25% wins / +58% ROI

 

Track: Tampa Bay

Race: #2

Horse: #4 Papajudgy

ML: 4/1

8k Claimers going 7 furlongs on the Tamp dirt should have #4 Papajudgy right on the lead and controlling the early pace. Coming off a nice win vs similar last out and back at it in just 13 days. Nations and Ferrer stay together for today. Horse shows dominant early and middle pace figures which has proven deadly going 7f in low level claiming races. Look for this horse to get out to the lead and hold on in deep stretch.

  • Small sample but trainer jockey connection posting this meet 33% wins and +21% ROI
  • Nations successful moving up class ladder over last year = 18% wins / +19% ROI
  • Horses going 7f at Tampa on the dirt projected on lead at first call = 26 starts / 31% wins / +12% ROI
  • Same metrics adding post position 3 or greater = 92 starts / 25% wins / +11% ROI

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Further reading

Woodbine 6/20/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Doing something a bit different for this writeup as I’ll be out on a river all week without access to internet. Instead of morning lines, I’ll use my...