Blog on fire last Thursday, 7/9 top choices win, other 2 finished 2nd. Hope we can keep in going today!
Key: BF = Bad Favorite and LS = Longshot
Race 1: 2-1-5
#2 Includeanattitude 3yo filly who is improving and I think will like the 2 turns more than others. Dropping down to correct level and enough early speed in the race to set up her close.
Race 2: 4-1-2
#4 Cheverie top choice in a tough but small field. Consistent sort will sit off of pace, maybe can go by in the lane…soft selection, must spread in early P4, don’t trust rail horse at 9-5 ML at all.
Race 3: 5-7-4
#5 Tabia a gray gelding who absolutely towers over the field if can run anywhere close to efforts at Delta Downs. With all-star connections, he just needs to break and be up close, should get the job done at lower than 2-1 ML odds….more like Even-money.
Race 4: 3-1-8
Pick 5 starts here…..ABC selections below:
|
Race # |
A | B |
C |
|
4 |
1,3 | 7,8 |
4 |
|
5 |
7 |
1,2,3,4,5 |
|
|
6 |
2,7 |
1,4 |
|
|
7 |
7,9 | 4 |
1,2,5 |
|
8 |
2,6 | 7 |
1,3,4 |
Caveman ticket: 1378 / 7 / 27 / 125479 / 267 ($72)
#3 Withherbootson got a great trip last time. I think it might happen again, only with a huge jockey upgrade. Many of the same come back from the same race, #1 Golden Gopher might have ran the best, but could get caught up in pace dual again.
Race 5: 7-2-1
If it’s not #7 Berry Good, could be just about anyone. 3yo filly lost to a good one on Northern Lights Turf Festival Night, Just a Kiss Away, who got loose and freaked. Berry Good handled 2 turns on turf, no reason why she can’t on dirt. Needs to avoid wide trip on first turn.
Race 6: 7-2-4 LS: 7
#7 Fullbridledphantom (6-1 ML) is my Price Play of the Day. There’s a ton of speed inside of him, and hope he tucks in, makes a big run on far turn and goes by in stretch. There are sharp horses in here, so he’s gonna need his best, but has back numbers that are good enough to win.
Race 7: 9-7-4
I will admit #9 Diva de Kela (6-1 ML) needs a lot of things to go her way from this spot going 5f on the turf. But, there are no standouts in here, enough early speed for her to close into, and she has races in her PP’s that can win. A big spread race in the late P5.
Race 8: 6-2-7 BF: 4 LS: 6
Another longshot I like tonight, and they’ve been good to me lately, is the #6 Shannon C (another 6-1 ML). My longshot selections (ML’s bigger than 6-1) are 13/40, 33%, not too shabby. Think you’re going to get that price on Shannon C today. Plenty to like, especially the blazing early speed in this turf sprint. I think he’s the speed of the speed in this salty alw. event, and I believe the 2 “best” horses coming out of the stake race, #2 and #4, will be overbet and might be “over the top” (best races last time). Shannon has to have the lead or lay just off it and be very good, but all of that is possible at a price. Good luck today!!
