Through Week 8 Stats: 234: 82-52-48
Top Choice: (35%, 78% ITM)
BF: 14/40 LS: 13/41
Race 8-10 are Quarter Horse races and therefore will not be covered in this blog posting.
Key: BF = Bad Favorite and LS = Longshot
Race 1: 2-5-6
Fun, interesting card starts with a baby race for the girls, MN-bred. #2 She’s My Warrior stands out to me by works and breeding. By Warrior’s Reward out of a Stormy Atlantic mare, this filly has a very precocious pedigree, especially for a MN-bred. Quick works and excellent connections (Trainer Padilla, who co-owns, and jockey Quinonez). Is a half-sister to the talented Thealligatorhunter ($87k) and Garden Games ($209k). As always, let the tote board be your guide too.
Race 2: 2-1-3
A few of these are coming back together from the June 8th race, and #2 College Party ran extremely well after being pressed into very fast early fractions. The #1 Royal Privacy ran him down, and might do it again, but there’s not nearly as much early speed signed on today, and College Party could get loose. Only concern is quick one-week turnaround….shows confidence from trainer Liftin?
Race 3: 5-4-6
P5 starts here….ABC selections below:
|
Race # |
A | B |
C |
|
3 |
5 | 4,6,7 |
8 |
|
4 |
1,6 |
2,4 |
|
|
5 |
2,3,7 | 1,4 |
5,6,8 |
|
6 |
6,8,9 |
3,5 |
|
|
7 |
7,8 |
4,6 |
Caveman Ticket: 5 / 16 / ALL / 689 / 78 ($48)
The other baby race on the card for MN-breds is for the boys. You never know with these, but on paper, #5 Love the Nest sticks out like a sore thumb. Cost $105,000 at the Keeneland Sept. Sale and out of outstanding BC Classic winner Blame (beat Zenyatta, remember?). Damn also productive, won $157k and her 2 babies both won their debuts. Bullet works in the holster…if this Berndt trainee breaks well, I think he’ll win.
Race 4: 6-1-2 LS: 6
#6 Nevada Hotel not the most talented horse in this field, but has one thing that most of these don’t…early gas. 5yo gelding looks completely loose on paper and might be good enough to steal this one on the front end. Should be noted likely fave and my longshot play of the day from Sunday, #1 Fullbridledphantom, chooses this easier spot and probably will win with any decent trip. Needs to stay close to Nevada Hotel.
Race 5: 2-3-7
Good luck with this race…a rare “all” button in the P5 for me. Going with #2 Everybody Does It for the Cappellucci barn, but not with a lot of confidence. Mare is 0/5 on fast dirt and seems better on turf, but this is a pretty weak group and is a recent claim too. Seems well-spotted and ground-saving trip coming.
Race 6: 9-8-6
Nice N1X alw. race on the turf. I’ll go with a bit of a “fresh face” angle with the #9, Bayou Prospector, for Bravo and Eikleberry. Talented 4yo coming off a long layoff, but has been working great, and has numbers as a 3yo last year that are just as good or better than most. Needs to work out a trip from this wide slot, but hope he sits off of probably pace-setter #8 and is ready to win today. Raced in Kentucky and Florida last year, so has faced toughies, and only lost by 1/2 length in our Mystic Lake Derby.
Race 7: 8-7-6
#8 Loring Park beat other logical contender in here, #7 Feeding Frenzy, last time they met on June 2nd. Loring Park should improve more than the #7, as 3yo gelding is now making his 2nd start off the layoff for jockey Q. Graduation Day for the Lothenbach-owned, Berndt-trained horse sired by Orb.
