Play of the Day: Race 6, #2 Flimflam Man (6-1 ML)
***Biggest P5 carryover in the history of Canterbury Park today, $91,332 in the pot!! Many big prices yesterday on Opening Night as we all get a feel for the surface. Speed held well on dirt and turf Opening night.
Key: BF = Bad Favorite and LS = Longshot
Race 1: 4-3-5 6 1/2f dirt OC 20k
Going to be chalky in the opener, as #4 Aunt Ruthie looks tough here as lone speed for Diodoro. If she breaks and handles track, she’s gone. #3 Full of Grace will close nicely, 2nd start off the layoff and might appreciate extra 1/2 furlong, while #5 Girls a Bullet will be better than last in Oklahoma….4/4 in the money on this strip.
Race 2: 6-3-5-7 6 1/2f dirt OC 7k
Don’t know if #6 Sorriso can get the distance, but on paper this gelding is absolutely loose on the lead. Just needs a soft pace and has run well at the distance before. #3 Fullbridlephantom will most likely be the favorite with consistent figs and form for top trainer at Turf Paradise. Will be a factor late. #5 Libertarian comes from Tampa and another who’ll close late….no published works since last ran on 4/21, hmmm.
Race 3: 5-2-7-9 7 1/2f turf Clm 16k BF: 7 LS: 2
#5 Kinetic Swagger has early speed in a race lacking that, has solid form from tough Fairgrounds circuit, and will get first run on the closers. #2 Cernan is better than he looks lately. Gets back to his preferred surface and has back numbers on turf that could easlily get it done here….sleeper. #7 Always Cool will take a lot of money, but is this gelding really better than the rest? Comes off a long layoff for Berndt, who can get them ready for this spot.
Race 4: 7-6-3-5 6f dirt Lady Slipper Stakes – MN-bred-F 50k BF: 3 LS: 7
Start of the Pick 6 and first stake race of the meet, state-bred females battle in a competitive field. Top choice is #7 Clickbait for trainer Robertson. Had a prep at Oaklawn to ready for this test, gets nice cozy outside stalking trip with speed to her inside. Has won 4 of 5 on this strip, jock knows this mare well. #6 Star of the North will try and take them wire to wire. Very sharp form from Sam Houston and might not be caught if she gets loose. 3yo going against older however. #3 Ready to Runaway was awesome last year, but has shown nothing in first two starts of 2020, granted vs. much better than this. Amazing 11 for 11 in the money, with 9 wins at Canterbury.
Race 5 begins Pick 5…… ABC Selections: Carryover of $91,332!
Caveman P5 Play: 56 / 267 / 136 11 / 8 10 / 1489 10 11 ($144)
Race 5: 5-6-1-3 6f dirt 10,000 Lakes Stakes MN-bred 50k
Here’s the battle we’ve been waiting for, and it happens on Day 2 of the meet. The top 2 MN-bred money earners of all-time, #1 Hot Shot Kid (617k) vs. #6 Mr. Jagermeister ($615) renew their battle….and I’m taking neither on top. #5 Drop of Golden Sun (250k-earner) won 120k last year including 2 state-bred scores, granted those were 2 turns. Useful prep in 2021 debut at Will Rodgers Downs in a sprint. Should sit off of speed and pounce late. #6 Mr. Jagermeister will drop the hammer early and could go gate to wire, but not as sharp as he used to be…still very dangerous. #1 Hot Shot Kid also a warrior, but not as good as in the past. Prepped at Oaklawn last time to ready for this. #3 and #4 could also win in this very competitive stake.
Race 6: 2-6-7-5 6f dirt Md Sp Wt BF: 7 LS: 2
My Play of the Day comes here with the #2 Flimflam Man. Broke slow, rushed up inside with a middle move while taking a ton of mud, flattened late. Trainer Rosin 2 for 3 with maiden 2nd-time starters. If he breaks, has a big shot to upset the field. Sold for 50k, #6 Well Read is well-bred by Cross Traffic and is a half-sister to Allied Air Raid (350k). Might want longer, but solid works for excellent trainer. #7 Drama Chorus (9-5 ML) is the kind of horse I love to bet against as the fave. 0 for 10 with 4 2nd’s, he will show speed and I’m sure can win, but doesn’t have to and has had his chances. Others have much more upside, might improve 2nd out though this year.
Race 7: 6-11-3-1 1 mile turf Clm. 7.5k
#6 Giveitsomewellie is a recent claim for trainer Cappellucci with other-worldly stats with this type. Inconsistent, ying-yang type figures to run one of her better ones here, but demand a price. All-or-nothing, 3 wins with 0 2nds or 3rds. #11 Lila’s Lucky Lady most likely post-time fave gets tough post and wide trip likely first off the bench. Has enough speed to find a tuck early. #3 Double Bee Sting also first out since 2020, has back class and better post than top 2. Is tactical and might sit a great trip.
Race 8: 10-8-4-1 5 1/2f MN-bred Alw N1X
Living up to her name, #10 Sailing Along did just that in her first start, blowing by the leader and winning impressively at Will Rodgers. Shows a sharp work over the track and has nice upside. ML of 4-1 might be a pipedream at post time. #8 Midnight Current finished 2020 with a nice maiden-breaker and is bred to be a good one, especially for a MN-bred. Her and top choice nice horses with big futures. #4 Binding Time has much more experience and goes out first off the layoff for new trainer Rengstorf. Will be coming on late.
Race 9: 4-8-11-1 1 mile dirt OC 12k/N1X BF: 1 LS: 4
Unless you think the rail horse is unbeatable, this race is wide open, so I’ll go with #4 Market Analysis. Interesting background here….used to be trained by a guy named Pletcher and was 6-1 in last year’s Tampa Bay Derby. Tailed off end of 2020, but goes here off a prep, figures to be on the lead, and capable if he can run to his back numbers. 8-1 ML? Cha-ching! #8 Tapage improving lately, but comes back relatively quick and might not get set up he needs as a closer. Fits and will be running on late for a slice. #11 Tashkent similar to #8 Tapage but with a wider post. Can win with the right setup. In for 12.5k, a negative for me. Worth mentioning the fave I don’t’ like, #1 Twoko Bay. Best races are on turf or wet dirt and off a very long layoff. Of course he can win, but will be huge underlay in my opinion.
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