Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 1- (2) SOCIAL CHIC
Race 1: (2) SOCIAL CHIC is coming off of a career-best speed figure, as well as two convincing wins against similar allowance company. He’s the only multiple-time winner in this group and should gallop home with ease once again, albeit as a heavy odds-on choice. (5) LIKE SEGAL has good early speed, but hasn’t gotten the lead at first call in either of his last two races due to other early speed. He should have enough speed tonight against this bunch to control things from the front end, which certainly help his chances. (6) SAINT VRAIN is best of the rest. He is coming off a career-best speed figure last time out in his Charles Town debut and Denis Araujo is back in the saddle.
Race 2: (4) AMERICAN PIPER has showed strong early pace, but hasn’t quite been able to carry it all the way. However, this is his first try around Charles Town and the bull ring is generally more kind to early speed types. Should get an acceptable price on this runner due to the presence of (2) RYE HUMOR. He has been facing really tough fields around the country and has hit the board at places like Churchill Downs and Keeneland. If he takes to the Charles Town oval, he should absolutely crush this field, but I take a stand against as he likely goes off at 1-5. (7) HAPPY BEE is best of the rest coming off of an okay main-track debut last time out at Gulfstream. Has good tactical early speed.
Race 3: (5) SOUND OFF is coming off a half-length score against similar company at the 8.5 furlong distance. He cuts back today to 7 furlongs, a distance at which he is 3-for-5 lifetime. At Charles Town, he is 8-for-12 lifetime and has only finished outside the money once. (4) ITGOT GRANDMA has put in three solid efforts in his first three lifetime starts at Charles Town, but all of those efforts have been at 8.5 furlong distance. Cutback may not ideal for him, but he has enough early speed to be in the mix when they turn for home. (3) CHARITABLE SPENNY is coming off a convincing wire-to-wire score last time out against a field that included a couple of rivals he will see again today. Likely won’t have as easy of a time getting to the lead today, which could leave this vulnerable.
Race 4: (6) TAKE ME HOME has absolutely crushed in her last two, winning by over seven lengths in both events. This field tonight is really no tougher than recent company she has been facing and she should cruise to a third victory in a row for a trainer who is hitting at 33% with horses coming off a last out win. (2) LADY MACHO comes into this one with a three race win streak, but does lose the services of leading rider Arnaldo Bocachica this time. However, she does team up with Denis Araujo, a talented 20% rider. The distance is a negative here for her as it appears she prefers longer races. (1) BIRD TRAFFIC has put together some okay efforts in the last two, finishing third and fourth behind TAKE ME HOME. She has suffered from some serious ground lost in the last two and will look to work out a better trip tonight.
Race 5: (6) EASTBOUND N DOWN was fourth last time out, but was coming off a lengthy layoff. Trainer is hitting at 20% second-time off the layoff on a small sample size, but this one should have some extra fitness this time out and good early speed- both good characteristics to have. (1) DAN THE MAN CAN just missed last time out while putting in a good effort. Has the rail today and should slot in just behind the early speed, getting a nice ground saving trip the whole way. (7) MELTECH also figures to get a nice trip from the outside draw. He should stalk just outside the leaders and be right in the mix late. Has hit the board in 5-of-9 tries at the distance.
Race 6: (1) NEEDACARCALLLOUIE showed tremendous early speed last time out, but had no chance of holding the speed for six furlongs. She draws the rail here and only has to carry the speed for 4.5 furlongs tonight. She also faced tougher last time out at Aqueduct. (4) TWISTED STORIES has steadily progressed in each of her three lifetime races. Another step forward here today will put this one right in the mix, as she just missed by a head last time out. (7) LOAN BIZ seems to have the best works of the first-time starters and could be live on debut. Keep an eye on the tote board to see what the public thinks of this one’s chances here.
Race 7: (2) SUPER GARNER has exceptional early speed and is coming off of two convincing open length scores in wire-to-wire fashion. Expect nothing different here tonight, but don’t expect any sort of value in the win price. (3) CATCH MY CABOOSE could be a nice play underneath to spice up the exotics. He came up empty last time out, but does have races recently that can be very competitive in here, including a win at the level just three starts ago. If he can bounce back to complete the exacta, expect a nice ROI here. (1) ELLIE’S LIL MAN has put in two respectable efforts since a DNF three starts ago. He has lost a lot of ground in recent starts, but he should get a ground-saving trip from the rail tonight.
Race 8: (5) CHARITABLE VISIT unleashed a furious late rally last time out to third, aided by a hot, contested pace on the front end. With the big field, the pace should be contentious on the front end again and if he can be a little closer early on, this gelding could make his way to the winner’s circle. Added half furlong of distance versus last time out is a plus. (6) WINNING SCHOLAR has been through the claim box several times lately, but is racing in pretty good form, finishing twice two times in a row at the level. He will also be coming from off the pace. (8) FAPPIANO ROCKET takes on tougher today, but is coming off the best speed figure last time out. He’ll look to prove that the big speed figure against easier last time out was no fluke.