Charles Town Picks & Analysis – Saturday, February 27, 2021 – Edison Hatter

Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_

Most Likely Winner: Race 8- (3) DAZZLE ME

Race 1: (7) PRINCE VALESKI enters the Ronny Brown barn, which is hitting at 21% with first-time starters for the stable. He has only had two tries on the main track in his career, neither one of which was particularly noteworthy, but both were against tough South Florida fields. May just have the class edge to get it done against these bottom-level maiden foes. (2) YES MEANS NO was a distant third last time out in his Charles Town debut and will look to improve in this spot. He is an 0-for-31 maiden who loves picking up checks, finishing second 10 times and third 8 times in his career. (3) PERSEVERED has been knocking on the door in the past two starts since coming to Charles Town and should be right in the mix again.

Picks: 7-2-3

Race 2: (2) AFANDI has been searching for a while for the elusive second lifetime win and has finished second five starts in a row. Draws nicely in here and rider Darius Thorpe should put this one in the best position to win based on the early pace scenario. She has shown the ability to run well with the early lead and when sitting off the early speed, a useful quality for this race. (7) OLD LINE MAGIC is dangerous when left alone on the lead, as shown by a 16-length maiden win three starts back. But, there appears to be other early speed in here tonight. While it would not be shocking to see this one win, may want to look elsewhere if this one is odds-on. (6) VIOLANE will be coming from off the pace, but can close into this affair and pick up the pieces late.

Picks: 2-7-6

 

Race 3: (7) ONE TWO PUNCH shows a consistent work tab coming into the career debut for trainer Javier Contreras, who has an ROI of $3.04 with first-time starters and is hitting at 15%. (2) TWENTYTWENTY has the best speed figures of the field and comes from the barn of top trainer Jeff Runco with top rider Arnaldo Bocachica aboard. However, he was no threat against MSW company in his first three lifetime starts. (5) EXECUTIVE PRIZE is best of the rest and has a significant experience edge over this field. Could catch a minor piece.

Picks: 7-2-5

Race 4: (6) INDIAN FIBER may just have enough speed in here to make the early lead and could be dangerous from there. The majority of her lifetime wins come when she can make the early lead at this 4.5 furlong distance. (7) DON’TBAGGAGECHECK figures to right in the mix, having just finished second in a race that included several in this race. (2) LOVE HAPPY has the best last-out speed figure and is coming off of a win, but will have to work out a trip tonight. Doesn’t quite have enough early speed to keep with the leaders and could potentially get shuffled back or locked in behind the leaders early.

Picks: 6-7-2

Race 5: (8) LET’S GET STARTED has been rolling late in his first two lifetime starts. Expect this one to be handled a little more aggressively out of the gate this time, which should put him within range at the end. (9) ROCK BREAK had a respectable debut and should be part of the early mix, but the gate draw could be a negative to his chances tonight as he might be fanned wide into the first turn. (6) YESIKNOWWHOIAM has been second in three straight outings. Consider it a positive that the connections want to protect this one and go back up to MSW company.

Picks: 8-9-6

Race 6: (4) LANESBOROUGH is trying the three-turn 8.5 furlongs for the first time, but she appears to have the most early speed and should be able to dictate things from the front end and wire this field. (7) CARINA is also trying the three-turn 8.5 furlongs for the first time, coming off a visually impressive win at the mile distance at Mahoning Valley. Should be close to the early pace. (5) PIMM AND PROPER is best of the rest and does have experience over this trip and track, unlike the other choices in here. Maybe consider boxing these top three in exotic wagers.

Picks: 4-7-5

Race 7: (8) PARTY LIFE had a good first outing last time for the new connections, recording the best last out Beyer of the whole field. Should be within range of the early leaders and have a chance turning for home. Added 0.5 furlong from the last outing is a positive. (7) NICALOE is likely the early pacemaker in here and could hit the board if he doesn’t receive too much pace pressure early on. (5) RAGTIME COWBOY JOE has been in good form lately, hitting the board in four consecutive outings, all while posting three 50+ Beyers in a row. Does get tougher facing winners for the first time today, but could catch a piece.

Picks: 8-7-5

Race 8: (3) DAZZLE ME makes a huge drop down from the allowance ranks and has a huge class and speed figure advantage over this bunch. Should get the job done in the nightcap, albeit at a short price. (2) SAINTE THERESE has had two respectable efforts recently, although both came with Luis Batista riding. Switching back to regular rider Keimar Trotman today, we’ll take a chance on her in here to hit the exacta at a price. A repeat of her last two races should be competitive for the minor placings. (10) NORTHERN HEAT has been steadily improving with recent efforts while finding a level of competition suitable for her. Should be competitive today, although the wide post draw could slightly compromise her chances.

Picks: 3-2-10

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