Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 6- (4) AARON’S TAP
Race 1: (1) SHECANFLATOUTPLAY is coming off of two solid outings to start her career and her last race is especially impressive considering how much ground she lost while wide on the turns. A similar effort to her last while saving a little bit more ground should result in her breaking the maiden tonight. (2) KINKY FROLIC was third last time out in the same race SHECANFLATOUTPLAY is coming out of. KINKY FROLIC didn’t have a whole lot to offer late last time but is still probably second best here today in this field of maidens. (4) JOY FANTASTIC is best of the remaining three. She is much lighter raced than the other two and is more likely to take a step forward here.
Race 2: (1) THE FORTY FACTOR and (4) DELAYED ENGAGEMENT figure to be the two setting the early fractions in this sprint. THE FORTY FACTOR had a solid first race at Charles Town last time out and will look to build on that. The inside draw should help him and give him the tactical edge, but DELAYED ENGAGEMENT must be respected for his record at Charles Town: 4-3-1-0. (6) R BOY EVENS is best of the rest to round out an exceedingly formful trifecta.
Race 3: (4) GRANDPA MUNSTER showed little last time out, hence the reason for the big price quote on the morning line this time out. It’s clear that he runs best on the lead and likes the lead. Expect aggressive handling with this one early on as he should have the speed to get to the top early. Doesn’t really have a chance if he can’t get the top early, but worth a chance at a big price. (1) DAN THE MAN CAN is coming off a huge effort last time out. A repeat of that effort would easily make him the winner here, but this seems like the spot where he’s susceptible to a bounce. Be careful of this one at a short price. (8) BENNY CHANG could be in for a potentially wide trip into the turn, but he has respectable speed figures and starts for the always dangerous Kevin Patterson barn.
Race 4: (5) ANY WAY NOW is coming off of a long layoff, but he starts for a top barn that is hitting at 22% in such spots. A repeat of his last effort over this trip against similar company should be enough to get him in the winner’s circle. He figures to be on or near the early speed. (3) NAUTICAL WARRIOR is coming off an okay effort against tougher. He romped home against similar competition two starts ago and should appreciate the class relief today. (2) J J WEDGIT MAN will most likely take up shop at the back of the short field early and will pick up the pieces late.
Race 5: (2) SHERWOOD LADY and (3) LONGSTORYLUCY will be the two taking all the money in this field of five and rightly so. These two just tower over this field. From a pick perspective, the slight here will go to SHERWOOD LADY due to the likely pace setup. LONGSTORYLUCY comes from off the pace, while SHERWOOD LADY prefers being on or near the early lead. In this short field, SHERWOOD LADY will likely dictate things on the front end early and should have a tactical advantage over her main rival. (1) SECRET CASTLE is best of the rest and will likely not be too far off of the early pace.
Race 6: (4) AARON’S TAP is coming off of two really strong efforts, but both were at the 4.5 furlong distance. Assuming he can get 6.5 furlongs today and he can put forward an effort anywhere near his last two, he is definitely the one to beat. (6) WILLIAM AND MARY is a nice, classy gelding who always comes with a nice effort late. There should be a fair amount of pace for this one to chase tonight. (3) FAIRWEATHER FRIEND is the longest shot on the morning line, but should be the early controlling speed. This long is probably not his preferred distance, but in this short field, he could definitely hold on for a piece.
Race 7: (3) TALENT EXPECTED has outstanding speed figures at this distance in two career tries and is the one to beat on paper. She also appears to be the fastest early and should be the one to catch. (1) CHARITABLE ANY finally broke the maiden last time in a career-best effort. If she can take a step forward today against winners for the first time, she is a possibility in exotics at a nice price. (6) TIZ THE REASON is another maiden-breaker to watch. She is 1-for-1 lifetime and will get the chance to show us tonight how good she is against winners.
Race 8: (6) MISS MORGANTOWN is coming off a poor effort against MSW company, but the drop back down to the claiming ranks should be much appreciated by her today. She hasn’t stretched out to the 6.5 furlong distance yet at Charles Town, but she has gone longer at Laurel before. A repeat of her effort two back should be enough to get the job done against these maiden foes. (2) CREATIVE SPLENDOR has a solid third place effort against similar last time out after a poor effort first time out off the layoff. Another step forward here today third off the layoff and she’ll be right in the mix. (1) SONDE AFFAIR shows a good work tab in preparation for the debut and could have a chance of hitting the board in here. Keep an eye on the tote board to see what the public thinks of her chances on debut.
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