Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 7- (3) TIZ EVAN’S HONEY
Race 1: (1) ZEP hasn’t showed a whole lot in recent races, but those have been against much, much tougher competition. Tonight, he gets massive class relief and has a significant speed figure and class edge over this field. Expect aggressive handling early as he will likely be hustled from the rail towards the top and won’t look back from there. (4) JAXBRADENRISHI is by far best of the rest on paper, but would still need to take a significant step forward to pose a serious challenge to the heavy favorite. The battle for third is absolutely wide open, but let’s try (5) LIL LINDER, who has lacked a strong late kick in her last few, yet has still managed to pick up a piece in each.
Race 2: (3) ROCKET ROAD has just missed in two recent efforts at this level. He is clearly the one to beat on paper and should get the job done against this field with an effort similar to his last two. (6) THE FORTY FACTOR is the obvious upset danger if there is one to the favorite. He has raced well as of late, albeit at 4.5 furlongs. The positive is that he should be close to the pace on the stretch out. The negative is that he historically has not done well at this distance. (2) EQUUS NOVIS hasn’t been that close lately, but he stretches back out to a distance he absolutely loves, having finished in the money in 4-of-4 attempts at the distance.
Race 3: (5) ORGANZA has put in superior races to this bunch in the past at Turfway Park over the tapeta. If she takes to the dirt well in her first try tonight, she will certainly be tough to beat. If not, the obvious other choice is (1) SIGNATURE DISH. She has finished second in three of her last four against
tougher maiden competition. She should show speed today and appreciate the class drop. (2) QT BLIEGH is best of the rest on the class drop and coming off the long layoff for a trainer who hits well in such spots.
Race 4: (2) KATMAN QUICK has been in the money and close in three straight at this level, including two over this same trip. He should be a part of the early pace mix tonight and looks to have finally found the right field to pick up the win against. (5) THREE TO THIRTEEN has also put up some solid speed figures in his recent starts, but it doesn’t look like the pace will setup in his favor tonight. He likes to come with a late closing kick from off the pace, but it doesn’t look like there will be a whole lot of speed for him to close into tonight. (1) FRANKIE DOTS has been off form lately, but he has some solid back class and has picked up a minor check many times in the past over this distance. He’s worth including in exotics to try to beat the favorites somehow.
Race 5: (7) BI BI CARPE was a convincing maiden winner last time out in wire-to-wire fashion. He definitely won’t have as easy of a time on the front end tonight, but he still should get the job done here on paper at least. (3) GRANDPA MUNSTER gets some class relief and had a very strong maiden breaking score over this trip just two starts ago. He should be close to the early pace and have every chance if good enough. (5) DYNAMIC DAY has a strong class edge over this field and could definitely pick up a piece, but this doesn’t appear to be his preferred distance. He seems to want to go longer and I would not want to back him at 2-1 to find out whether or not his class can get him across the line first in this spot.
Race 6: (5) CHESTNUT LIME and (6) DEREK’S BOY are certainly the two to beat in here based on speed figures. Slight edge given to CHESTNUT LIME, who had a very troubled trip last time out, but still stayed on gamely for third. He also gets a tactical advantage by drawing inside of his main rival in this spot. (3) QUITE SUGGESTIVE has a strong record at this distance and put forth a solid effort last time out. If he can build on his last effort, he can definitely be in the mix here.
Race 7: (3) TIZ EVAN’S HONEY is coming off of a very strong debut outing. She stretches out to 7 furlongs and two turns tonight, but she should be able to take the step forward necessary to get the job done here against winners for the first time. She has loads of early speed- expect her to get right to the top and never look back. (4) CATALIMA was a very game second last time out, albeit against softer competition. She should have every chance here to take another step forward for the new connections and get a piece of the action. (2) JAMESTOWN ROAD is best of the rest and should be much closer to the early pace than she was last time out, which should help her chances tonight.
Race 8: (3) U S S COSTLY has put in two respectable efforts at the level over this trip in his last two. He raced particularly well two starts ago when he was allowed to dictate the early fractions. He looks to have enough speed to clear to the top early here, but may receive some strong pace pressure along the way that could weaken him late. (5) SHORTLISTER and (6) UNIMAGINABLE U both have superior pace figures compared to this bunch, but certainly prefer longer races than this. The class and speed figure edge these two have over the field definitely make them horses to watch and they could pick up a piece, but I don’t expect them to break the maiden tonight. In particular, I wouldn’t want to be on UNIMAGINABLE U as the favorite at an untested distance and track.
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