Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 7- (3) HOT N SPICY LOVE
Race 1: (5) NAJWA settled beautifully just off of the early pace in her Charles Town debut last time out and kicked on powerfully late to break the maiden. She does have to take on winners for the first time tonight, but leading rider Arnaldo Bocachica stays aboard and she stretches out to a distance that should only suit her more. (6) MADY ROSE is a similar tale, having just broken her maiden status last time out. However, that race was six months ago and she comes back from a lengthy layoff for a trainer only hitting at 10% in such spots. The top two choices both look similar in a lot of ways, but the price on the two could be drastically different (i.e. 4-1 vs. 6-5). (3) JAMESTOWN ROAD is best of the rest and could show improvement with a cleaner trip as she has encountered significant trouble in her last two.
Picks: 5-6-3
Race 2: (5) IN THE GOSPEL is the likely favorite and deservedly so, but he is tough to take on top. He is 0-for-14 and has lost several races that he probably should have won. If he wins he wins, but let’s look elsewhere for some value. Let’s try (7) PRINCE LOUIS. He tired badly last time out in his debut around two turns, but turns back tonight to his preferred 4.5 furlong distance. He’s definitely capable of taking a step forward here in only his third career start. (2) STRONG SAFETY deserves a second try here tonight. He was acting up around the gate, didn’t break the best, and didn’t appear to like the off track. Hopefully he has a better race day tonight and can pick up a piece.
Picks: 5-7-2
Race 3: Anthony Farrior has the world here with (3) FLY E DUBAI and (4) LASER LOOP. The latter seems to be in better form at the moment, having won two in a row, including a convincing score last time out in his first start for the barn. On the basis of this, he is the top choice here. However, it is worth noting that the former keeps the services of top rider Arnaldo Bocachica, who had his choice between the two here. (7) SCHLOSSER is a very consistent horse that has hit the board in over 60% of his starts at the distance.
Picks: 4-3-7
Race 4: (3) I’D LIKE TO KNOW fits perfectly here. He gets a little class relief, but more importantly, he drops to a distance that should be more fitting to his style. He has loads of early speed, but just can’t sustain it for very long. 4.5 furlongs should be a great fit for this runner; expect him to head for the lead early and not look back from there. (7) BI BI CARPE is the other obvious choice in here. He just isn’t as quick as the top choice early, but these two are clear standouts on paper. The most likely scenario is that these two run 1-2 the whole way around. (4) TANELEER exits the same race as BI BI CARPE and was only beaten by him by a couple of lengths. Nonetheless, he figures to be a much bigger price than his foe tonight. Worth a try in exotics as it appears to be a pretty solid common race they both come out of.
Picks: 3-7-4
Race 5: In 4.5 furlong races at Charles Town, especially those of the maiden variety, the horse that gets the early lead wins a big percentage of the time. That is my expectation in this race, but it’s not exactly clear cut as to who will get the early lead, but let’s try the first timer (3) SISTER JOANN, who has put in some nice works in preparation for the debut. Of the experienced runners, (1) DYLADDIE may be the quickest early. She has the rail and figures to be sent hard early. She didn’t show anything last time out as a 4-5 favorite though, which makes her a suspicious morning line favorite here. (6) MISS MORGANTOWN is best of the rest on paper, but it may be worth taking an “ALL” chance in the third sport in trifectas as this race is wide open.
Picks: 3-1-6
Race 6: (7) UNKISS ME closed 5.5 lengths on the leaders in her last start, finishing second in the race. She should have plenty of pace to chase in this race and is the price play of the day at 8-1 here. (3) SECRET AFFIRMATION won under a very patient ride last time out in his first try teaming up with Christian Hiraldo. These two team up again here and will look to replicate their first success together. (4) CAT LAK has a lot of streaks to keep in tact here: she’s hit the board in 9 straight, in all three tries at Charles Town, and in all four tries at the distance.
Picks: 7-3-4
Race 7: (3) HOT N SPICY LOVE is razor sharp right now. He was fantastic last time out in his first start for the new connections. While he turns back slightly in distance, it shouldn’t matter here as he is likely to pick up his third win in a row. (1) KILLA DEE was favored against several of these foes last time out, but was disappointing in his first try at Charles Town in a while. He comes back for a trainer hitting at 20% with horses second time off the bench and is worth a look at 12-1 on the morning line. (8) CAPE LOOKOUT has a very strong record at this distance and has put in some very strong efforts recently. He will have to work out a trip though from the outside post.
Picks: 3-1-8
Race 8: (3) AMEN CORNER hasn’t shown a whole lot, but has been facing much tougher company, including some stakes events in the past. He is a major player here in his Charles Town debut, but keep an eye on the tote board and don’t accept too short of odds on him here. (5) SUNBRIDLED was disqualified last time out, but ran a winning race, crossing the wire in second. The winner was just much the best in there, but tonight, expect him to be forwardly place and within range late if good enough. (2) FRANKEE MERCH dug in and just refused to lose last time out against similar. Certainly his last race took something out of him for tonight, but if he can produce a similar effort here, he could be a serious win contender.
Picks: 3-5-2
