Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 6- (7) ANY WAY NOW
Race 1: (4) DOMS LADY has the most potential upside in this serious field of underachievers. She turns back to a 4.5 furlong distance that she seems to prefer and she was third two starts ago at this level over this trip despite encountering some major trip trouble. Additionally, she is only 0-for-6 lifetime and has hit the board in three races- that’s much better than the rest in this field can say. (6) PAINT ME PRETTY has hit the board in two straight since dropping to this level of competition and had a career best effort for the new trainer last time out. She’ll look to build on this momentum tonight. (1) LINEAGE has had three straight races with significant trip problems. If she can get a clean trip tonight, she is in with a chance to pick up a piece. The slight class drop from her last race and the turnback in distance only helps her chances here.
Race 2: (1) BASKET GIRL is the top choice here off of a career best outing last time out that resulted in a very nice win for the connections. She stalked the pace early and pulled away late to win with authority. A similar effort here should earn her back-to-back wins, but she can be a little inconsistent at times. If she doesn’t show up tonight, (2) SILKEN BELLE is the next most likely winner. She, on the other hand, is a very consistent runner that always puts forward a strong effort. She’s in sharp form at the moment, having finished second three times in a row and having won four starts back. She is an experienced runner that has had good success over this trip in the past. (3) SISTER ANNA is 3-for-5 at the distance, gets a slight drop in class tonight, and should get a better trip than her last two. She’s perfectly capable of rounding out the trifecta here at an 8-1 morning line quote.
Race 3: (2) I’M A TOTAL DIVA has been decent in her brief career and it is a positive sign that the connections worked to protect her last time out by making the jump to MSW company from the claiming ranks. She led most of the way last time out and was caught in deep stretch. Look for a similar game plan tonight as it doesn’t appear anyone else in this field is as fast as her early. Her stablemate (3) MY PRETTY EYES could round out a John McKee exacta as she finished just behind her stablemate last time out. She has more experience with eight races, but she hasn’t broken the maiden yet with a lifetime mark of 8-0-2-4. Expect her to settle a few lengths off the early speed and come with a run late. (7) HOLLYWOOD BROWN shows a very nice work tab in preparation for the career debut tonight. Let’s give her a chance in exotics and see what she has tonight.
Race 4: (4) COOL ENOUGH tried tougher last time out off of a win at this level and found little success, fading to finish a distant sixth. She has shown in her brief career that she is becoming a “need the lead” type, which makes it difficult to bet her, especially as a favorite. Nonetheless, it seems she has enough speed here to clear the field early and she should win with an effort equivalent to two starts back. (1) TALKTHETALK hasn’t shown the best form on dirt recently, but she has been facing tougher in South Florida. Her class edge could be enough to make her competitive here tonight. (2) ESTHER’S FORTUNE is best of the rest and should come with a strong late run as she usually does. The stretch out to 7 furlongs tonight should only help her chances.
Race 5: (2) ROCK BREAK and (8) NOCASHREFUNDS are the top two choices respectively based on the strong efforts they’ve each put forth so far in two career starts. Both have put in similar, strong efforts in their career starts and both have earned nearly identical speed figures for their efforts. The edge goes to ROCK BREAK here from a tactical stand point as he will be much more forwardly placed early. Barring a speed attempt from one of the first time starters, he figures to probably be the early leader. (4) GOLDEN METTLE has some strong back class and should be considered in exotics. The concern is that he returns tonight from a 2+ year layoff and may need a race or two to get back in form.
Race 6: (7) ANY WAY NOW has put together back-to-back strong outings, including a solid effort last start off of a lengthy layoff. He starts for a trainer that is hitting at 28% with horse second time off the layoff and the horse possess good early speed. While the outside post draw is somewhat reason for concern, he is still the top pick of the night. (1) NORTHERN RIDGE had a respectable debut for the new barn last time out. He tries slightly tougher company tonight and gets Lasix for the first time. He could take the step forward needed to be competitive here and is worth a try at a price in exotics. (3) MAN OF THE NIGHT has a chance to be a serious player on the class relief, but will definitely need to put forward a better effort than his last few.
Race 7: (2) BE BE BOP has been on a tear lately, having won three in a row. While he does face a tougher crowd tonight, he has improved in each of his last three starts and showed some serious grit last time out to get the job done. He’s worth a try on top, especially if you can get the 5-1 morning line price. (5) IMPETUOUS is the next obvious choice coming from the red hot Kevin Patterson barn. He had a strong outing for the barn last time out on debut finishing second after leading most of the way. Expect another speed try from this entrant tonight. (8) COMMAND THE CAT is also a must use as he was the one who ran down IMPETUOUS last time out to win going away. He was 5.5 lengths out of it early and rallied late to win by 2 lengths.
Race 8: (5) LIKE ME OR NOT has a couple of wins at this distance and will look to add another one tonight. There is not a whole lot of early pace in this race and she has taken the initiative to lead before. If she’s allowed to settle on the front end, she could have enough late to wire this field. (8) FLOATING BY has performed well in the past, but doesn’t like to win. She’s only 1-for-25 at Charles Town and has a record at the distance of 5-0-0-4. She’s a must use underneath, but tread carefully using her in the win position. (2) LADY’S CORK is the price play in the race on the basis of a strong race two starts back and a respectable record at the distance. Overall, this is a wide open finale.
***$22,373 Pick 5 Carryover Tonight***
Pick 5 Ticket: 1,2,4/2,8/7/2,5,8/2,4,5,8 = $36