Charles Town Picks & Analysis – Thursday, March 11, 2021 – Edison Hatter

Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_

Most Likely Winner: Race 1- (4) SHESAUPTOWNGIRL

Race 1: (4) SHESAUPTOWNGIRL broke a little slowly and was fourth early on before getting the lead late and just losing by a head in the end. Nonetheless, she absolutely towers over this field and is every bit deserving of the 1-5 morning line on paper. Prediction: She’ll win easily by open lengths over this field. Advice: If you’re going to play her to win or place, don’t. If you’re going to play her at all, play her to show- she’ll almost certainly return $2.20 across the board. (1) MAGICIANS DIVA is quite lightly raced and has the most upside of the rest. The rail draw should help as she figures to track the heavy favorite the whole way around the track. Of the other four runners, none have hit the board and all have at least seven lifetime starts. Someone will have to break that trend today and I’ll pick (2) NOT FOR GOLD to do it. 

Picks: 4-1-2

Race 2: (4) SPUNKY ALI CAT is coming off the best last out speed figure and that speed figure was a new career high for her. A similar effort today should put this one in the winner’s circle, but she may not enjoy as easy of a lead as last time out. (2) STROLLNTOTHEBANK broke her maiden in her first career start last time out in August. She broke slowly that day and made up nearly 8 lengths on the leaders from the first call to the finish line; not an easy task in a 4.5 furlong race. If this one is ready to go off the layoff and gets a cleaner break today, she could be right in the mix. (3) BELLA FEMMINA put in a really good effort two back and then was significantly weakened up by an early pace battle last time out. On the turnback to 4.5 furlongs, expect her to be just off the pace and within range as they turn for home.

Picks: 4-2-3

Race 3: (3) YOUR MOM KNOWS has been having some second-itis lately, finishing second in three straight events. However, today he has the best speed figures by quite a bit and a similar effort to his last two over the same trip should see him break the maiden tonight. (5) JESS’S RESERVE hasn’t shown a whole lot in two career starts so far, but both were against much tougher MSW company. Maybe the class drop today is exactly what he needs to be competitive. (1) RUNAWAY CROWN enters the barn of top trainer Anthony Farrior and is coming out of an okay debut race at Laurel. He gets the rail draw tonight and is capable of taking a step forward here.

Picks: 3-5-1

 

Race 4: (5) READY TO RUN was indeed ready to run last time out as he absolutely crushed the field that day. He is liable to bounce off such a strong effort last time out, but a similar effort should almost certainly put him in the winner’s circle after the race. (2) MR. VECCHIO had a bad trip last time that should have a line drawn through it. His previous four races show really sharp form and competitive numbers against this type of field. If he’s ready to go off the layoff tonight, he is a serious win contender. (3) WINDSORS FOR IT has the useful ability to sit off the early pace and make a bit of a run late. He was a nice winner last time out first off the claim and will look to keep it rolling tonight.

Picks: 5-2-3

Race 5: (3) GIO DUDE love the 3 turn 8.5 furlong races at Charles Town, finishing in the money in 6-of-6 career attempts. He has won 3 of those races and is looking to add another win tonight. He draws nicely, should get a good stalking trip off the early leaders, and takes a drop in class. (1) CRAZY idea has three straight second place finishes at the level and over this trip. Expect him to be off the pace early before coming with a late rally to pick up the pieces. (2) THE PREDICTOR seemed to bounce a little last time out coming off an impressive score at 13-1. It is encouraging to see trainer Ronney Brown bring him back on just two weeks rest and he loves the distance, finishing in the money in 15-of-27 lifetime tries. Consider using in exotics at a price. 

Picks: 3-1-2

Race 6: (5) ROCKET SOUND takes a significant drop in class from allowance company to this spot and is a must use in all exotics. He doesn’t have to win here, but given the significant class drop, he is capable of taking the step forward necessary to get it done against this bunch tonight. (3) MINI BOLT is coming off a pair of second place finishes. He should appreciate the turnback to 4.5 furlongs today and should be right in range with a cleaner break than last time out. (8) TURNER ASHBY is also taking a big drop in class, but hasn’t shown a whole lot at all as of late. He also tries the 4.5 furlong distance for only the second time in his career and he was thoroughly outpaced in his first try. Nonetheless, his class edge may just get him across the line in the money against this bunch.

Picks: 5-3-8

 

Race 7: (3) COLLEGE KID and (7) SONDE OF MUSIC are the two logical favorites here and rightly so. Both are coming off of solid races recently and they have the best speed figures of the field. They also both figure to be battling on the lead early on. Slight edge given to COLLEGE KID with the win last time out and the inside draw here tonight. (4) ZIRCON ZLOTY is coming off of a career best race and tries allowance company today. He will likely be a big price, but if he can take the step up in class well, there’s no reason she can’t catch a piece here.

Picks: 3-7-4

Race 8: (4) ABLE BAKER CHARLIE was close to the pace last time out against similar, but was simply no match for the winner late, who was a mile the best. Expect this one to be close early on and hopefully kick away late with top jockey Arnaldo Bocachica aboard for the second time in a row. (7) CAUSE FOR SURPRISE is a consistent horse who always puts in a solid effort. He gets a little class relief today and should be competitive with this group. (3) PONT DU GARD is an interesting horse to consider in exotics. He has been facing much tougher in South Florida and has been putting up monster speed figures compared to this field, but this has all been done on the turf. He doesn’t show a whole lot in his two career tries on dirt, but maybe the class edge he holds here today will help.

Picks: 4-7-3

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