Charles Town Picks & Analysis – Thursday, March 4, 2021 – Edison Hatter

Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_

Most Likely Winner: Race 7- (4) BUBBA GRUMP

Race 1: (1) AUTS REVOLUTION romped at a big price last time out at the distance, leading all the way and winning by 14 lengths in the end. Does face tougher company tonight, but appears to be the early speed again and will look to wire this field as well. (4) KINGS HIGHWAY makes his debut for James Chapman, who is hitting at 26% with first-time starters for the barn. He should get a nice stalking trip and be within range turning for home if good enough. (5) EXECUTIVE RETREAT is best of the rest. He appears to not only like the distance, but also the Charles Town oval.

Picks: 1-4-5

Race 2: (1) CARTER’S RUN made a huge move from the back of the pack to win against similar company two starts ago. Race should set up nicely for him again as there should be plenty of pace to chase. (4) PRINCE OF WINDSOR is a classy gelding that has hit the board in 40-of-67 lifetime starts and 20-of-31 starts at the distance. While he can pick up minor shares when off the pace, he has shown in the past couple of years that he needs the lead to win, which he might not get in here today. (6) BINN GOODE is in really “Goode” form at the moment, but will likely get tangled up in a fast pace scenario, which could compromise his chances.

Picks: 1-4-6

Race 3: (2) BASKET GIRL and (5) QUITE SUGGESTIVE are the top two on the morning line and also likely figure to be the two vying for the early lead in a race where no one particularly appears to want the lead. Slight edge to BASKET GIRL, who has beaten QUITE SUGGESTIVE twice in recent common contests. (4) AUDREY LUCILLE is taking a significant drop in class and is facing one of the softer fields she’s seen in her career. Could pick up a piece at a nice price for the exotics.

Picks: 2-5-4

 

Race 4: (7) SHE’S RIGHT has found two tough fields in her last outings, having to settle for second each time. Today she appears to be the best of this field and with an effort similar to her last two, she should end up in the winner’s circle. (4) CASTLE OF CAYLEE is the other one in this field that has superior speed figures. She followed up a five-length romp two starts ago with a close second place finish last time out in her first start for the new barn. She’ll look to put together another good race for the new connections. (1) BUFF N is best of the rest and the rail draw should be to her favor as she figures to save ground with a rail skimming trip behind the top two.

Picks: 7-4-1

Race 5: (4) ROCKIN ANNA ROLLIN has a lot of things in her favor. First, she makes her first start for Jeff Runco, who is hitting at 21% in such spots. Second, she gets leading rider Arnaldo Bocachica aboard for her Charles Town debut. And finally, the cutback in distance should be in her favor as she hasn’t quite been able to carry her speed over the longer distances yet. (9) JIMMYSEXTRAGIRL appears to be in an identical situation for her Charles Town debut. She showed great early speed last time out, but couldn’t carry it over the 6 furlong distance. 4.5 furlongs should suit her nicely. (8) COLETTE’S SPIRIT has an overall experience edge on this field and an experience edge over the Charles Town oval. She’s in good form at the moment, finishing third in all three most recent tries at this level.

Picks: 4-9-8

Race 6: Both (4) MALIBU SPLASH and (5) POWER FORWARD are coming off wins against slightly easier and although MALIBU SPLASH earned the higher speed figure last time out, slight edge here is given to POWER FORWARD. She should get a nice trip in mid-pack before coming late like she did last time in a convincing two length score. (6) BRIGINTINE ISLAND will likely be sent for the lead out of the gate, but may use some energy crossing over from the high draw. Nonetheless, seems best of the rest to hold on for third in the end.

Picks: 5-4-6

 

Race 7: (4) BUBBA GRUMP continues to take a step forward with each race and has been ultra-impressive in his last two wins. He stretches out to two turns for the first time tonight, but there is no indication that he can’t get the distance. Expect this one to win by open lengths, but probably as an odds-on favorite. (1) REMYS SHOWTIME was competitive against similar last time out, but faded in the stretch. The 1/2 furlong turnback today should work in this one’s favor. (7) LUFTY’S KISSES made a nice late run last time out to just miss at this level. Should be coming with a late effort again tonight and can pick up the pieces.

Picks: 4-1-7

Race 8: (6) MEGA MILLIONS disappointed last time out as the 3-5 favorite in his Charles Town debut, but he will look to make amends tonight. He once again receives the services of leading rider Arnaldo Bocachica and has a fairly significant class edge over this bunch. (4) CREATIVE MINESHAFT was well off the pace throughout in his most recent outing. Regular rider Gustavo Larosa is back in the saddle and expect to see this one much closer to the early pace this time out. Could provide good value in the exacta if the favorite does indeed prevail. (1) STONE CRAZED definitely would need to take a step forward to be competitive here, but may be worth a chance at a price in exotics. He is 1-for-1 at the distance, at Charles Town, and for trainer Ollie Figgins III.

Picks: 6-4-1

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