Charles Town Picks & Analysis – Friday, March 12, 2021
Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 4- (3) TEL AVIV
Race 1: (3) IHEARUKNOCKIN has picked up three consecutive third place finishes against tougher since picking up a win against similar four starts ago. He should be close to the pace early on and should get the job done with an effort similar tohis last couple. (4) FLAT RATE has been facing tougher recently and has also been trying the 4.5 furlong distance in his last two. He should show good speed today on the stretch out and could be a contender if left alone on the front end. (5) SUNMAN is best of the rest, but he had an uninspiring Charles Town debut last time out against tougher, never factoring in the race at all. He’ll need to do better tonight to be a serious contender.
Picks: 3-4-5
Race 2: (6) OUR BAD GIRL didn’t show a whole lot last time out on the class hike first time out off the claim, but gets a bit of class relief today and should certainly be a serious factor in the early pace mix on the stretch out. She does seem to enjoy this distance, posting a record of 6-2-2-1. (2) NORTHERN HEAT was within range early last time out before just missing by a head at the wire. Expect similar tactics from her today and, like last time, she will likely go off as the favorite. (3) MACKENZIE’S STAR has had three troubled trips in a row. Tonight, she gets the company of top jockey Arnaldo Bocachica, which should help her chances of getting a cleaner trip here.
Picks: 6-2-3
Race 3: (4) LINCOLN CENTER is coming off the best last out speed figure and will be making her Charles Town debut. She takes a significant drop from MSW company to claiming company and she makes her second start off the layoff for a trainer who is hitting at 25% in such situations. She is 0-for-14, but we’ll see if she can finally break through tonight. (3) SIGNATURE DISHtakes a drop down in class and should be on the point early on with her early speed. At this level, she has a pair of second place finishes so far in her lightly raced career. (1) CALLINGHERCOLLINS gave up a significant lead last time out in the stretch, which is cause for concern, but she still seems to be best of the rest and is a must use in exotics. From the rail, she too will likely be on, close to, or just off the early pace.
Picks: 4-3-1
Race 4: (3) TEL AVIV just simply is faster than this field. As long as she breaks cleanly, she should go right to the lead and never look back. She’s a consistent performer who just towers over this field. (2) CAT LAK absolutely loves the distance and holds a 3-2-1-0 record in 4.5 furlongcontests. She should be within a length or two of the leader early, but she doesn’t have the class to stick with TEL AVIV. She is a clear second best in this field, however. (1) WARRIOR EMPRESS has been inconsistent of late, but if she puts forward a good effort she could pick up the pieces for third. She starts for the always dangerous Kevin Patterson barn.
Picks: 3-2-1
Race 5: (1) LET’S GET STARTED would likely win tonight on the class drop with a repeat of either of his first two career outings. However, his last outing was his worst so far in his brief career as he showed little. It was his first try on an off track so that may have been part of the reason; either way, we’ll give him the chance to bounce back here and break the maiden. (2) YESIKNOWWHOIAM had a poor last outing against MSW company, but was a very competitive second two starts ago against this level of competition. He should be close to the early pace tonight and should appreciate the drop back down to more appropriate company for him. (3) IN THE GOSPEL is a similar story as he was competitive against similar company two starts ago and then had a less than impressive last outing against tougher. While he should appreciate the class drop today, it doesn’t appear that 7 furlongs is his preferred distance.
Picks: 1-2-3
Race 6: (1) LONDON WEREWOLF is coming off a poor effort at Gulfstream Park and a two-month layoff. But, he starts for trainer Ronny Brown who is 21% with first-time starters for the barn. He also had an exceptional outing two starts ago; an effort anywhere near that tonight should see him romp home by open lengths. (3) NEW AFLEET has put together two good races recently and comes into tonight’s event with a good base of fitness from the recent 8.5 furlong races. He seems to prefer shorter though and he should appreciate the turnback in distance tonight. (5) SWISS SUNRISE also seems to have a liking for this distance and should be prominent early on the stretch out from 4.5 furlongs.
Picks: 1-3-5
Race 7: (2) NAVY SWORD goes in for a claiming tag for only the second time in her life. The first time, she romped home 7.5 lengths while barely breaking a sweat. She is coming off of a poor last outing, but that can be mostly attributed to her not taking well to the 8.5 furlongdistance. Back at a short distance tonight, she should get the job done. Perhaps the more interesting question is: How many claims will be put in for her? (3) AZZURRAtells essentially the same tale as NAVY SWORD. This will also be her second time in for a tag, she won by 2.5 lengths in her only other time in the for the tag, and she comes off a poor effort in the same last out race as NAVY SWORD. The difference comes in the speed figure department where AZZURRA can’t quite keep pace with NAVY SWORD. (6) WONDER CHARM is coming off a maiden breaking win at 4.5 furlongs and will stretch out to 6.5 today. She will almost certainly be the early pace setter in here, the only questions are how far can she go and how much will she have left late?
Picks: 2-3-6
Race 8: (3) RUN ON ENERGY and (4) WAKES UP HAPPY are the two logical horses in this spot. RUN ON ENERGY has put up the better speed figures overall, but WAKES UP HAPPYhas shown better efforts at this 8.5 furlong distance. Slight edge will be given to WAKES UP HAPPY here based on recent efforts over this trip, but this may be a race to keep an eye on the tote board to see if the public has a strong preference for one over the other. (1) LIL SWEETHEARTis coming off of a layoff after her most recent outing, which was a very poor showing over this distance against similar to what she’ll see today. However, prior to that most recent outing, she had hit the board in 5-of-5 tries at the distance. We’ll see if she can bounce back in this spot.
Picks: 4-3-1
