Racing is starting to wind down at Colonial Downs for the summer as we only have two weekends remaining. The last true blockbuster card that the track holds is coming up on Saturday with the Old Dominion Derby and Oaks. If you want a sneak peek at my thoughts on that card check out the In The Money Media YouTube channel where I recorded a video with Mike Pribozie. However, let’s first try to build some bankroll tackling these Friday races.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-4-3-6
- Race 2: 5-1-4-7
- Race 3: 1-3-4-2
- Race 4: 7-9-1-8
- Race 5: 1-8-2-10
- Race 6: 2-1-8-4
- Race 7: 8-4-1-2
- Race 8: 2-8-7-6
Colonial Downs Race 4: Game It (#7) at 7-1 or higher
The first few races on the Friday card look pretty formful, but this maiden claiming event for juveniles could produce a price. I’m not in love with any of the short prices on the morning line, but if I’m afraid of any of them it’s Winrooski (#8) who showed speed against better at Saratoga last out before retreating in the lane. I could make a case that Modern Miss (#1) will improve getting on the grass for the first time in her second career start, but she doesn’t project to be an appealing price. I nearly made Spotlight Girl (#9) the top pick as this WV-Bred is the proverbial “speed of the speed” in this turf sprint, but opted for a more creative pick. Game It (#7) did almost no running in her first start and didn’t take a penny at the windows being sent off at 33-1 in a maiden claimer at Gulfstream. However, that is to be expected from the Mary Lightner barn given the 1/31 (3%, $0.72 ROI) record with juvenile debut runners. Those numbers completely flip when it comes to this move as she’s 4/14 (29%, $2.24 ROI) with first-time turf runner who have a start under their belt with all four of those victories coming at Colonial. This is actually a pretty solid pedigree with the dam producing two runners who’ve earned $200k+ just hoping she shows new life on the grass.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Whappen (#8) at 4-1 or higher
This race becomes extremely playable if the morning line favorite Big Air (#7) goes off anywhere near the 2-1 she’s listed. This will be her first start against winners and she’s coming off a blow out win over dirt when this is a 9f grass race. Bread to Run (#4) looks to be the most likely winner in my mind as her last turf effort was a good win in a $50k N2L at Churchill where she even overcame some trouble. I’d user her prominently on most tickets, but there’s one other runner I like who’ll be a better price. Whappen (#8) projects to appreciate the fact that there’s a couple runners who like to be on-or-near the lead and she could get a great setup. I’m looking for her to reproduce the effort last time where she rallied to win a $30k N2L at Ellis. Though they are claiming events, I think the races these two come out of are nearly as strong as the field assembled here. Whappen also benefits from having Brendan Walsh in her corner and she gets the better rider of the two Walsh trainees,
Colonial Downs Race 8: Quirky Ride (#2) at 5-2 or higher
It’s clear to me that there are three major contenders in this $16k N2L event that closes the card. Fluffy (#7) is the horse to beat after running well in each of her three starts over the course this meet. She couldn’t quite get the job done as the favorite at this level last time, but that might’ve been a tougher group. Payrula (#8) is her chief rival looking to reverse the form of their last meeting. Payrula checked in 5th that day, but pretty much blew the break so there’s opportunity for her to improve. However, I’ve opted for the least exposed of the main contenders and put Quirky Ride (#2) on top and like her to win right back. She looked much more comfortable on grass last time at Belterra and has the tactical speed to lay close without getting outrun early. Kelsey Danner’s barn has been hot all over the country recently and I’m hoping that extends to this low-level claiming event as well.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/30)
All
Top Picks: 172-45-37-27 (26%, $1.79); Featured Horses: 54-11-10-14 (20%, $2.24)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 105-21-25-14 (20%, $1.85); Featured Horses: 41-9-8-9 (22%, $2.63)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 42%; B’s: 35%; C’s: 19%; X’s: 4%
