Colonial Downs Analysis – July 27th, 2021 – By Michael Domabyl

The Monday card at Colonial Downs was dampened by a severe thunderstorm that caused the cancellation of two races in the middle of the card and a two-plus hour weather delay. Here’s to hoping for blue skies the rest of the week. Tuesday’s card features double-digit fields the last five races comprising what projects to be a lucrative pick five sequence.

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  • Race 1: 6-3-2-1
  • Race 2: 3-1-6-7
  • Race 3: 1-6-2-5
  • Race 4: 4-1-5-7
  • Race 5: 6-4-5-10
  • Race 6: 11-1-4-14
  • Race 7: 12-9-1-7
  • Race 8: 4-3-11-7
  • Race 9: 6-3-11-2

Colonial Downs Race 3: Moonsafe (#1)

A compact field of six is scheduled to go postward in the 3rd race on Tuesday. Moonsafe (#1) seems like the prototypical candidate for a turnback and she gets just that in this 7f allowance. She had chalk bettors worried mid-stretch in a 125k stakes race before tiring late and last out would have been 1-5 with in-race betting at about the 3/16th pole before backing up late. She gets back to one turn for the first time since her maiden breaking score which came over a wet track that she has the possibility of seeing again today. She’ll look to sit just off the speed of Decoupage (#2) who goes out for the high percentage Jamie Ness barn. While this mare appears to have a pace advantage, she’s been in and out of form recently and I’m not sure about how much she’ll appreciate closing down that seventh panel of this race. Platinum Sky (#6) holds the class edge for this field and she did quite well to rally inside in her last race. This Louisiana bred filly poses the main danger to the top choice and also has no problems with a wet track.

Colonial Downs Race 4: Gold Money (#4)

Normally it is difficult to graduate first time against winners in an open N1X and even more so when it a three-year-old facing older horses, but that is exactly what I am expecting from top pick Gold Money (#4). This sophomore gelding looked like a new animal on the switch to turf last time on the way to an upset victory that I liked everything about. First he took two hard bumps out of the gate and proceeded to set very quick early fractions. The two runners in closest pursuit of him backed up to finish 11th and 6th respectively. He was resolute down the lane and now gets a sixteenth of a mile less to navigate in order to pass this next test. He is projected to be as loose as loose can be on the lead and Joe Rocco Jr and Michael Tomlinson have already teamed up together for two winners at this nascent Colonial Downs meet. The logical alternatives to use with the top choice in verticals are Huge Bigly (#1) and Onarock (#5). The former certainly holds an edge in terms of class and recent speed figure, but that turf marathon form doesn’t always translate to these shorter route distances and the John Ortiz barn has got off to a cold start so far this meet. Onarock goes out for the meet’s leading trainer as of this writing in Neil Morris, albeit two of his three wins coming in the form of non-wagering steeplechase events. Obviously something went awry for this runner last time out, but he has races from last summer that make him a player here.

Colonial Downs Race 7: Continuation (#12)

This allowance N2X optional claimer really brings together an eclectic group of horses. I think you have to decide whether you want to take one of the hard-knocking veterans who have graduated this condition in the past and are in for the $40k tag or take one of the horses on the improve who are looking to blossom their careers further. I’ve landed on a runner in the latter group who could possess some promise. Continuation (#12) has looked ultra impressive in each of his last two starts scoring by open lengths. After breaking his maiden at 19-1 on the lead with a fast final-time, he took to the turf last out and was arguably more impressive sitting just off a rival and putting that one away and drawing off in deep stretch. The wide draw may actually be a blessing in disguise for this runner as Joe Rocco Jr can see what goes on inside of him and potentially end up with a similar stalking trip as his turf debut. Of the hard-knocking veteran group, I’ll be against two of the shorter prices on the ML in Salvator Mundi (#8) and Singapore Trader (#10) as both have been trending the wrong direction in their most recent starts. Instead I’ll use King’s Honor (#9) for the high percentage Brittany Russell barn coming off a facile victory at this level last out and could get a similar trip as the top pick. He defeated Broker’s Reward (#7) last out, who found himself on the lead last time and might be better with a target for solid connections in Michael Trombetta and jockey Feargal Lynch. Street Copper (#1) ran better than it looks on paper in a blanket finish at Belmont last out and retains the Trombetta barn’s preferred rider. He also represents his dam Sky Copper’s fourth different foal to start at this Colonial meet in just 8 race days.

Colonial Downs Race 9: Nanie’s Treasure (#6)

Bottom-level maiden claimers to close out the Tuesday card and the favorites in this spot don’t seem to have any particular edge. Of them Looking for Love (#3) is the most logical and has some upside left in her after only two career starts. She set swift fractions last out in a FL-Bred maiden claimers, but we’ll see if the route speed can translate to the shorter trip today. One that I think possesses true turf sprint speed in my top pick Nanie’s Treasure (#6). It is easy to dismiss this mare at first glance as she’s yet to hit the board in 14 career starts. However, if you pick apart her running lines, she’s only been able to sprint on turf a handful of times with a subset of those coming at a class level much loftier than this spot. The last work signals readiness of the 90 day break and new jockey Maria Scaldaferri was able to pilot a long shot winner wire-to-wire last week. If this runner can get to the front early, sometimes passing is hard to come by at this level. I’ll also throw in first time starter Our Strong Vows (#11) in the mix. The dam Mountain Vow won her debut so there’s some precocity in the pedigree, but also this race is crying out for a fresh face and you can do worse than a Karen Godsey runner who sent out two last week that outran their odds.

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