Del Mar Late Pick 5 for Saturday Aug 1st

Personally one of my favorite and most profitable bets to play is the Pick 5. I was excited and thrilled to read the blog by Mr. Christopher Larmey, where he was passing out straight horseplayer KNOWLEDGE early this week. Mr. Larmey has written an article specifically about the Pick 5, where he gets the perspectives of some of the game’s top handicappers and combines them in a consumable format. If you did not get an opportunity to read it, please consider: you will not regret it! 

Let’s take a look the final 7 races from Del Mar and attempt to apply some of the Pick 5 KNOWLEDGE we received. – Link to article: https://inthemoneypodcast.com/how-to-thrive-on-the-pick-5/

“Knowledge is power and power exists only when it is put into action”

-Foucault 

As I began to look at my method of approaching a Pick 5 Sequence and compared it to the experts in the article, I passed the 1st Leg: Handicap the races. We all have our different angles and things we like to play or play against. Doesn’t mean the race will always turn out the exact way we thought but more times than not we can look back and somehow apply logic to the result. – Check the Box – Handicapping complete. – Listed below are my summary for races 7 – 11

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 50K
A: 9
B: 3, 7
Race 8: 5½ Furlongs.CTBA-B100K
A: 7
B: 2, 3
Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 62500
A: 5, 11, 14
B: 1, 2
Race 10: 6 Furlongs. BCrosby-G1
A: 3
B: 9
Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 50k
A: 5, 9
B: 3, 6

One of the areas that I am severely deficient in is ticket construction. After determining my A B C choices, I utilize DRF Ticketmaker, plug in selections, my budget and play accordingly. Which takes all of maybe 15 minutes. Many, if not all, of the experts emphasize spending the same amount of time as handicapping or MORE on ticket construction for the Pick 5 wager. There are several different thoughts and methods. – For today’s sequence let’s look at one simple step that could help us determine how to construct better tickets.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 50K
A: 9 (3-1)
B: 3, 7
Race 8: 5½ Furlongs.CTBA-B100K
A: 7 (8-5)
B: 2, 3
Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 62500
A: 5 (2-1), 11 AE (5-1) , 14 AE (6-1)
B: 1, 2
Race 10: 6 Furlongs. BCrosby-G1
A: 3 (5-1)
B: 9
Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 50k
A: 5 (7/2) , 9 (5/2)
B: 3, 6

Looking at the morning line odds for all of our A runners – Ugggh! – Where is that chalk eating weasel t-shirt? If our thoughts are correct, we would have to play the A ticket a big number of times for the investment to be worth it. – At this point we have a decision to make: Do we play the sequence at all or do we take a further look at re-constructing and playing this ticket differently somehow? Now I am beginning to understand how this part of the process could be just as important as analyzing the form.

After retooling my thoughts I am going to make the following adjustments.

Final SectionsRational
Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 50K
A: 3 (15-1) , 7 (8-1) 9 (3-1)
Add in the 2 B horses as A’s or move on to the Pick 4
Race 8: 5½ Furlongs.CTBA-B100K
A: 2 (5-1) 3 (6-1)
Using B horses as A after scratches
Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 62500
A: 1 (5-1) , 2 (6-1), 5 (2-1),
If the 2 AEs don’t make it we move the 1 & 2 up to A’s
Race 10: 6 Furlongs. BCrosby-G1
A: 3 (5-1)
B: 9
Desert Law or Collusion Illusion
Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 50k
A: 5 (7/2) , 9 (5/2)
B: 3, 6
Will Play this leg as is
Narrowed our options down and taking a swing at the Pick 5
Pick 5 Plays
1.50 Pick 5 3,7,9/2,3/1,2,5/3/5,9$54
1.00 Pick 5 3,7,9/2,3/1,2,5/6/5,9$36
1.00 Pick 5 3,7,9/2,3/1,2,5/3/3,6$36
0.50 Pick 5 3,7,9/2,3/1,2,5/6/3,6$18
Total$144
Backup Pick 4 Ticket
Pick 4 Plays
2.00 Pick 4 2,3/1,2,5/3/5,9$24
1.50 Pick 4 2,3/1,2,5/9/5,9$18
1.50 Pick 4 2,3/1,2,5/3/3,6$18
1.00 Pick 4 2,3/1,2,5/9/3,6$12
Total$72

Let’s Make it Happen!!

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