Del Mar (Monday-9/5/22) By Dean Keppler

Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 6-Samurai Charm (Race #7)

Race #1: 3-Crowning Gold has speed; goes turf to dirt and barn is 4 for 9 (44%) with a $3.38 ROI with this substantial class drop at Del Mar. 1-Tall Boy also drops from MDSW to Maiden Claimers in career start number two and comes in with the field’s best last out main track Beyer of (68). 5-Pat’s Paddock Pick moves up slightly off encouraging runner-up finish in debut and switches to Hernandez.

Selections: 3-1-5

Race #2: 1-Ole Silver has speed; the rail and returns to a mile on the main track where she was a back-to-back winner at Santa Anita three and four-back. 7-Kirstenbosch goes turf to dirt and takes a considerable class drop for Sadler making her 2nd start off the mini-freshening. 2-Krist’s Tiger finished a strong 2nd when stretched out to a mile in last and has slowly raced herself into top form for trainer Thomas Bell.

Selections: 1-7-2

Race #3: 2-To Speight Her earned a strong (74) turf Beyer for his 4th place even debut finish and should move forward substantially in start number two for trainer Andy Mathis. This conditioner is a solid 7 for 16 (44%) with a lofty $9.98 ROI with 2nd time starters at Del Mar. 6-Virat departs out of the same July 24 race as top choice where the gelding was a fast-closing 2nd at 18/1. The other D’Amato 3-year-old is 7-Picota (GB) who hasn’t been out since January but goes 2nd time Lasix today. He was a beaten favorite in last 3 consecutive races while accumulating 6 of 7 ITM finishes.

Selections: 2-6-7

Race #4: The veteran 8-year-old mare 2-Li’l Grazen was a smashing winner against cheaper and now goes out for new barn off the claim. Hernandez and Papaprodromou are 2 for 2 (100%) when teamed up with new barn acquisitions. 4-Righteously failed to fire in subpar performance in last but now goes first off the claim for Mullins and shows 3 works since changing hands. An improved rebound performance is likely. 1-Seven Sisters has speed and the rail and should improve making 2nd start off the bench and dropping in class.

Selections: 2-4-1

Race #5: In what’s projected to be a rather swift early pace things should set-up rather nicely for class dropping 9-Tom’s Surprise who should be able to tuck in from his outside post and come running on late for the score. The 5-year-old gelding is 10 for 26 in his career; has the field’s best late TimeformUS pace figure of (117) and is simply the class of this field. 4-Big Buzz is only 1 for 15 on the Del Mar turf but is another who should be the beneficiary of potentially hotly contested early fractions. He goes first off the claim for Mullins. 8-Alvaaro shows back-to-back runner-up finishes and must be respected off field’s best last out turf Beyer of (85). The gelding switches to top turf pilot.

Selections: 9-4-8

Race #6: 2-Don’t Ju Forget goes turf to dirt; adds blinkers and drops in for a tag for the first time for trainer Peter Miller. 5-Backstreet Affair exits the same race as top choice and gets the complete makeover today for trainer Andy Mathis who has had a solid 2022 meet. The 3-year-old filly adds blinkers; goes turf to dirt; cuts back in distance and drops in for a tag for the first time. 9-Miss Baylee has speed; moves outside and her Beyer numbers have improved with each subsequent start since March of last year (24,39,42,59,60).

Selections: 2-5-9

 

Race #7: 6-Samurai Charm has good positional speed and drops out of the Grade 2 Great Lady M stakes for trainer Peter Miller. The 5-year-old mare loves Del Mar and is 3 for 3 at today’s mile trip. 4-Velvet Slippers has trained lights-out for Baffert and is reunited with winning rider off the freshening. The filly just missed against top choice in the Dark Mirage Stakes last September. 3-Teddy’s Barino moves up seeking fourth straight win for trainer Mark Glatt. The waters get deeper in here today, however.

Selections: 6-4-3

Race #8: 1-Beachgrass moves all the way to the inside and rail this afternoon and comes off a pair of excusable tough trips. The filly switches to top turf rider Umberto Rispoli and this jockey/trainer combo are 32% overall on grass the past 3 years. Recent Maiden winner 4-Perfectible Lady looms a stretch threat right back facing winners. 2-Girl Ranger goes dirt to turf and makes 2nd start off the bench for trainer Michael Mccarthy. This filly fits well here.

Selections: 1-4-2

Race #9: 7-Electric Lettuce has speed; adds blinkers today and is a serious wire-to-wire threat. This juvenile filly has returned to drill a pair of snappy a.m. works since last start. 6-Big Hopes was a decisive Maiden winner from far back after tardy break. The filly has two strong works since that encouraging debut win and Hernandez sticks. 8-Chimosa has rattled off two straight in impressive fashion. 5-Fun Money has lost 3 straight as the public’s betting choice but has run well in last pair. The Maiden lands in another tough spot, however.

Selections: 7-6-5

Race #10: 5-Handy Dandy has finished second in 4 of his last 5 starts for trainer Peter Miller but should get a favorable race flow to close into in the Labor Day Monday nightcap. 2-Anmer Hall has good positional speed and figures to work out a decent journey with inside draw. The gelding has run well over this turf course. 1-Bally’s Charm has speed; the rail and seeks third straight off the mini-freshening for Mullins. The 3-year-old gelding has worked well for his return and broke Maiden over this turf course last November.

Selections: 5-2-1

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