Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5- Burgoo Alley (Ire) (Race #7)
Race #1: 7-Feathers (Ire) has won two straight and is one of a pair of Steve Knapp-trained runners making their first start off the claim. This 4-year-old filly is a multiple winner over the track and distance and owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (78). She inhaled two next-out winners in her most recent victory October 12. 6-Octane (Brz) drops in class and a repeat effort from two-back where she earned an above par Beyer number of (81) would certainly put her in the hunt this afternoon. 3-Nice Ice has something that several of these don’t which is good positional speed. She goes dirt to turf today and could be a factor on the front end if able to recapture some of the grass form she showed last year over this turf course.
Race #2: 4-Memes has some speed; comes off the mini-freshening and drops from $40k to $20,000 Maiden Claimers. The gelding is eligible to improve dramatically at this reduced level. 5-Pittsburgh goes turf to dirt; drops to a career low and attracts Prat for trainer Bob Hess. 7-Careless Kitten makes career start number 19 this afternoon registering 4 consecutive runner-up finishes and 7 second place finishes overall. Vazquez will be the 11th different jockey to take a crack at getting her to the winner’s circle. She’s run above par for this level in last pair, but is impossible to select on the win end with much confidence.
Race #3: A small but very competitive N1X grass route for juvenile fillies with several runners separated by only a length or two. 1-Thebestisyettobe (Ire) was off slow in first U.S. stake start when beaten favorite September 10 and is eligible to move forward off that subpar effort with the addition of blinkers today and Prat back for the return ride. Recent 11/1 Maiden winner 7-Princess Bettina improved substantially with the stretch-out and move to turf. A similar effort over this grass course makes her the one to beat in here today. 2-Pride of the Nile owns the field’s best last out grass Beyer (70) with recent Maiden score and should be set for a career best effort making start number three. 4-Fast and Shiny drops out of the G3 Surfer Girl Stakes for Baffert and Velasquez where she was beaten less than 3 lengths.
Race #4: Baffert has a pair of fillies that cost $725K coming in off solid worktabs and are difficult to separate– which is usually the case. 7-Faiza is by Girvin who is 8 for 40 (20%) with juvenile offspring and this lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 4 for 7 (57%) with a $2.97 ROI with first time starters at DMR. The other Baffert filly 3-Wudi is by Uncle Mo and these winning connections are 3 for 5 (60%) with a $3.72 ROI with debut runners. Take your pick. 2-Miss Monarch Bay is a pricey $940K Fasig-Tipton purchase by Into Mischief who gets 16% with his 2-year-old prodigy. 4-Teen Ella is by War Front and Beholder and is projected to have solid ability for Mandella. Two back-to-back 6-furlong stamina drills for this unveiling.
Race #5: Trainer Phil D’Amato has a pair of 3-year-old fillies in here and this race appears to run through either or. 6-School Dance was an impressive winner of her southern California unveiling when returning off a 5-month layoff when shipping in from Gulfstream. She’s returned to work well since that strong effort and looks primed to take 3rd straight. 8-Sixteen Arches (Ire) is graded stakes placed and comes off a good second going this 1 1/8-mile trip. She’ll be motoring home from the back of the pack. 2-Belle Cherie was stuck behind a wall of horses when frantically looking for a way through in deep stretch when finishing behind Arches October 2. The filly moves inside today; switches to Prat and is expected to be more forwardly placed if not on the lead in this spot.
Race #6: There are 5 Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claimer dropdowns in this juvenile dirt route making it difficult to decipher. 8-Rich Gold hasn’t shown much in 3 starts for trainer Peter Miller but drops in for a first-time tag and returns as a first time gelding this afternoon. This jockey/trainer combo are 5 for 11 (45%) with a $3.27 ROI the past 2 years with this significant class drop. 3-Loco Luna makes career start number two for Calumet Farm and trainer Doug O’Neill. This 2-year-old colt by multiple G1 winner Ransom the Moon stretches out after showing brief speed and fading in August 20 debut effort. He’s been freshened and should move forward off that effort. Luna’s stablemate 9-Post Facto goes turf to dirt for new conditioner and is by multiple G1 winner Mineshaft who gets 17% with his dirt route runners. The class drop combined with the surface change and start number three make this colt one of the ones to use on all horizontal and vertical multi-race exotic tickets.
Race #7: The class of this field 5-Burgoo Alley (Ire) drops out of three consecutive Grade 2 events for D’Amato and projects to be forwardly placed for Prat. 4-Bipartisanship (GB) ran extremely well for Motion off the 7-month layoff from a difficult post at Keeneland as the tepid beaten favorite. The 4-year-old filly was extremely wide for most of that 1 1/16-mile trip while beaten only 3 lengths while finishing 5th. The ultra-consistent 3-Sugar Fix makes 2nd start off the claim for Hess and followed-up her win at Kentucky Downs with an even 3rd place finish in the Swingtime Stakes October 9. She’s 11 for 30 lifetime and 8 for 14 at this mile trip.
Race #8: If an expected fast pace comes to fruition in this optional $20,000 1x claiming sprint the Peter Miller-trained 6-She’s Bulletproof should be closing strongly through deep stretch with Prat back aboard. The filly comes in with an improving Beyer pattern and the additional ½ furlong helps her chances. 8-Vella is a re-claim for trainer Jonathan Wong and is another that’s expected to be the beneficiary of a quick early pace meltdown. 9-Tiger Spice is a perfect 2 for 2 and now makes first start in the lucrative Dan Blacker barn. The 4-year-old filly by multiple G1 winner Smiling Tiger has shown a versatile running style; comes off back-to-back bullet drills and owns the field’s best last out main track Beyer (75). There’s still plenty of room for upside. 1-Big Summer has been super sharp on grass, but lone dirt try resulted in a well-beaten 3rd last November. That effort may be an aberration, however, as his main track a.m. drills have been super quick, and his breeding suggests dirt is in the cards.
Race #9: D’Amato has another strong duo of juvenile colts in the Saturday nightcap. 1-Ransomware ran better than anticipated when finishing 2nd at 22/1 in October 21 unveiling. He earned a field’s best (73) grass Beyer in defeat; moves inside today on the stretch-out. His stablemate 8-Paulliac (Ire) is a 0 for 6 Maiden making his first stateside try for barn that typically excels with these turf imports. Prat sees fit to take the riding assignment. 3-Stonks ran better than 5th place effort looks on paper on October 7 unveiling. The colt was slow into stride when the gate opened and immediately found himself stuck at the rear of the pack. He made a wide bid to get himself into the race and then ran on well enough to come up only 4 lengths behind at the finish. An encouraging first try that he’s likely to build off.
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