Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Straight No Chaser (Race #3)
Race #1: 6-Multi Platinum has speed; removes the blinkers and goes second off the claim for trainer Steve Miyadi. The colt should appreciate cutting back to 6 furlongs. 5-Baladi is the one to beat off best last out main track Beyer (76) and makes 2nd start off the mini-freshening. The gelding broke his Maiden going 6 panels. 2-Missed Call is bred to handle the switch to dirt.
Race #2: 1-Manitowish was a beaten favorite in last going 1,000 yards at Los Al but moves back to 6 furlongs today where he’s 2 for 3 and goes 2nd off the claim for trainer Lorenzo Ruiz. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 7 for 10 (70%) with an imposing $6.54 ROI with this maneuver. 3-El Tigre Terrible also goes 2nd off the claim for Glatt and is reunited with winning rider. 4-Established goes turf to dirt off the Jonathan Wong claim and barn has racked up 8 wins since 8/25.
Race #3: 1-Straight No Chaser has returned to work well off impressive Maiden sprint turf score back in the beginning of the meet and that “key” race has produced 4 next-out winners. This speedy colt moves all the way inside today and is a likely repeat candidate. 7-Gregory’s Pride this game gelding has been runner-up in last 4 tries with improving Beyer figures and recent drills indicate he remains razor sharp for D’Amato. 2-Encroachment seeks third straight win and is 2 for 2 over this turf course.
Race #4: 2-Careless Kitten is 0 for 16 but comes off back-to-back runner up finishes against this level and should show more speed on the stretch-out. We’ll give the gelding one more try in this weak field. 8-Maynard goes turf to dirt on the class drop and makes 3rd start off the layoff for Smith and Sise. 5-Flying Fred goes turf to dirt for Maker and takes a considerable class plunge this afternoon.
Race #5: Beaten favorite 11-Midnight Jostar rarely gets away from the gate well but lands in a race that’s projected to be run swiftly early on which should help the gelding’s closing kick. Trainer Peter Miller has a pair of gelding’s lined up in here. 2-Li Mu Bai (Ire) makes first start for new barn off 9-month layoff but has a nice kick and attracts Hernandez. 5-Subsidize moves back to his preferred footing today and should improve making his 2nd start in Southern California.
Race #6: Baffert has a pair of well-bred juvenile colts that are sure to attract plenty of tote support. 4-Speed Boat Beach is by multiple Grade 1 winner Bayern who gets 15% with his 2-year-old prodigy. The colt shows a string of sharp 5-furlong a.m. drills and attracts Prat. 9-Fort Bragg is a $700K purchase by Tapit who also has flashy morning drills and lures Hernandez. 6-Fleet Fleet owns the experience edge over most of these and drops back into the Maiden ranks after trying the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes in debut.
Race #7: Trainer Phil D’Amato has 3 juvenile fillies represented in here and they’re difficult to separate. 7-Comanche Country (Ire) may hold the advantage as a recent Maiden winner over the track going this mile trip. 5-Thebestisyettobe (Ire) ships in off lone Maiden win at 11/1 going 7 furlongs. Prat lands here. 4-Excelia (Ire) is ambitiously placed for first stateside start but likely also has ability. He stretches out to a mile and is by Exceed And Excel (Aus) who gets 16% with turf route runners according to DRF Formulator.
Race #8: Trainer Bob Baffert has a pair of fillies that are both bred to handle today’s stretch-out in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes. 6-Home Cooking was a smashing winner in start number two and has trained well since that impressive Maiden score including a sharp 6-furlong stamina drill. 5-Fast and Shiny was surprisingly ignored when let go at 6/1 on August 7 unveiling which is something you rarely see from this lucrative barn. This gal is by multiple Grade 1 winner Bernardini who gets 18% with his dirt route runners so today’s 7 furlongs should be well within reach. 1-Vegas Magic is an undefeated 3 for 3 for Team O’Neil and comes off a 14/1 upset score in the Grade 2 Sorrento. She has fitness and experience in her corner.
Race #9: 1-Going to Vegas was last seen finishing second in the Grade 1 Gamely back in May ahead of stablemate 5-Going Global (Ire). She’s well-rested looking to defend her title after taking this event last year. The 5-year-old mare draws the rail and has a lot of tactical options with Prat back aboard. Global is 9 for 15 lifetime and loves this Del Mar turf course. She kicked clear nicely in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon and owns the field’s best last-out Beyer (94). 4-Park Avenue is today’s likely pacesetter and could get brave if allowed to carve out moderate fractions. She’s gone wire-to-wire at this distance before and should be tighter for Sadler making 2nd start off the mini-freshening.
Race #10: 1-Stormy Pattern showed little in first start over the track but cuts back to a sprint this afternoon and should be running on late. 3-Moose Mitchell goes first off the claim for trainer Peter Miller coming off a nice win against cheaper. The gelding will be tough here if he can run back to that (80) Beyer speed figure. 5-Tizlightning should appreciate getting back to the main track.
Race #11: 3-Velvet was a beaten favorite in last pair but should be set for best effort today making 3rd start off the layoff. 9-Kitty Kitana (GB) just missed in last when making 1st start at a mile and is the one to beat off that (79) Beyer. The other D’Amato filly 2-Leisurewear (Ire) is 0 for 12 but was a game 2nd in most recent start and fits well again with another favorable draw.