Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Havnameltdown (Race 8)
Race #1: 6-Consternation(Ire) has hit the board in 3 consecutive races against similar and this lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 6 for 14 (43%) with a $6.74 ROI with turf runners at DMR. 3-Frazzled showed good speed and faded to 5th in first start in over a year for conditioner Leonard Powell and is expected to be much tighter in second start off the bench. This filly’s lone win came over this course going a mile. 4-Beachgrass drops in class today and makes 3rd start off the layoff for O’Neill and Velasquez. This jockey/trainer duo scored with Ah Jeez opening day.
Race #2: 4-Conch Daddy has speed; goes turf to dirt this afternoon and has never started a this reduced $20k Maiden Claiming level. A serious wire-to-wire threat against these if he can avoid a duel with class dropping 3-Devil Moon. This gelding has flashed good positional speed in most of his efforts and goes turf to dirt today for Mandella making the always dangerous MDSW to MDCLM class plunge. 6-Frost Alert returns as a first-time gelding with Lasix off an extended layoff for Prat and Sadler. The $270K purchase now shows up at this reduced level. There’s obviously been some issues, but he’s trained well and this barn is a strong 6 for 16 (38%) with a $2.93 ROI with 2nd time starters dropping from MDSW to Maiden Claimers.
Race #3: 6-Carole Lombard broke slowly on November 5 debut try; settled at the back of the pack and then made a decent run late to grab the 5th spot. The filly galloped out decently and should improve substantially in career start number two on the stretch-out for D’Amato. The sample is small, but this jockey/trainer combo are 2 for 3 (67%) with a $5.80 ROI with 2nd time starters on turf. 2-Loyal to a Fault is the one to beat off a pair of runner-up grass finishes in last 3 starts. This filly has two-turn experience, an improving Beyer pattern and good positional speed. 1-Moorea Time finished in front of top choice in most recent start with an encouraging 3rd off the mini-freshening. She stretches back out and move inside this afternoon.
Race #4: The speedy multiple G2 winner 6-Forbidden Kingdom adds Lasix today and is expected to rebound off disappointing 5th place effort in the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The colt got cooked through fast fractions while apparently having some shoe issues. The son of American Pharoah has had 4 sharp drills since that subpar performance and should wire these. Trainer Peter Miller has a pair of contenders here. 3-Ginobili has been sidelined 11 months but is working lights-out for his return and is 3 for 5 at DMR. This will be the geldings first start in this new barn. His stablemate 4-Get Her Number is reunited with Prat who has 3 wins on this colt including a Grade 1. This colt would be most likely to benefit from a pace meltdown owning the field’s best TimeformUS late pace figure (108). 2-Risk and Reward returns off a year layoff for Baffert and has won 3 of 5 lifetime. This son of Frosted also has a flashy worktab. He’s proven off the bench but is unproven against stakes-caliber foes.
Race #5: The lightly raced and recent Maiden winner 8-Icy Flavor makes only his third career start today and will be tough to overhaul if he can repeat recent (80) turf Beyer speed figure. He defeated next-out winner Our Shining Light (Ire) who returned to score at Golden Gate with a (75) synthetic Beyer number. 7-Wyfire makes first start off the claim and second start off the extended layoff for trainer Mark Glatt. This conditioner has above average numbers with new acquisitions and this colt was a good 2nd in most recent effort despite a tardy break and traffic issues because of deep stretch rider mishaps. 3-Uncle George is winless since Maiden victory back in June of 2020 at Belmont, but goes first off the claim today for D’Amato who is 4 for 13 (33%) with a $2.90 ROI with new barn purchases on turf.
Race #6: 6-Hot Thoughts was much improved in career start number two with the switch to the main track and drop into Maiden Claimers. This juvenile filly by multiple G1 winner Palace Malice looks like the one to beat making second start at this reduced level. 5-Night Party has good early foot; a pair of runner-up finishes at this level and makes 2nd start off the Dollase claim. 7-Speaking Spanglish goes turf to dirt and drops in for a tag for second career start. The filly attracted some support on the tote going off at 6/1 in unveiling. Improvement likely.
Race #7: 4-Tom’s Beauty ran better than looks 4th when breaking slowly after some gate antics. This jockey/trainer combo have 2 wins and a second from last 3 starts when making 2nd start off the 45–180-day layoff. This filly broke her Maiden going 5 furlongs. 3-Phenom moves up to face winners off recent Maiden runaway wire-to-wire win where she earned a field’s best (80) grass Beyer. She makes 3rd start off the bench today and will be tough to beat with a similar performance while cutting back from 6 ½ to 5 furlongs. 8-Manorelli makes turf debut and has been freshened for good layoff barn. This 3-year-old filly is by G1 winner Outwork who gets 15% with his turf sprint prodigy. 5-Shoppingforpharoah returns off a 9-month freshening for trainer Jonathan Wong and this filly broke her Maiden at this 5-furlong trip over this turf course last November.
Race #8: Trainer Bob Baffert has three juvenile colts entered in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes. The best of the trio appears to be 2-Havnameltdown who has good gate speed and drops out of the G1 Runhappy DMR Futurity where he finished second to the highly regarded BC Juvenile runner-up Cave Rock. His stablemate 7-Newgate removes the blinkers today; cuts back to 7 furlongs and exits the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. The final Baffert colt 1-Hard to Figure comes off a Los Al Maiden victory where he defeated next-out winner Massimo who returned to win last Sunday at DMR with a strong (81) Beyer.
Race #9: 10-Constant Conflict makes only second career dirt try while earning the field’s best last out main track Beyer (72) against better on October 2. This barn is 12 for 46 (26%) with a $2.47 ROI with 50% claiming tag class reductions. The 4-year-old gelding gets in light today and projects to be forwardly placed with outside draw. 8-Mighty Matt had an excuse in last when losing rider and now gets the complete makeover today adding blinkers, dropping in class, and going turf to dirt. He was sandwiched between two next-out winners two-back. 5-Stayin’ Out Late goes sprint to route making 3rd start off the claim. The gelding’s effort three-back where he earned a (71) Beyer with close 4th place finish would make him a contender with this suspect bunch.