Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Organic (Race 8)
Race #1: 9-Ellie Moore (Ire) just missed in lone start overseas April 16 and has had three months to get acquainted with the D’Amato barn that excels with these grass imports. This juvenile filly is by multiple grade 1 winner Starspangledbanner (Aus). She holds the experience edge over most of these other fillies and will be tough to overhaul with regular second-out improvement. 2-Pacific Rose has trained smartly for team O’Neill and is by Not This Time who gets a substantial 21% with 2-year-old debuting prodigy. 4-Double Bay (Ire) is by grade 1 winner No Nay Never, who gets a solid 18% with his juvenile debuting offspring and has some decent a.m. drills that catch the eye.
Race #2: 8-Handr’sdream is wheeled back on two weeks rest after showing speed and fading against $20k claimers July 22. He drops in for $8,000 this afternoon and this barn scored with Windribbon ($28.40) on that same afternoon. 7-Dr. Troutman goes route to sprint coming off a decent runner-up effort at Los Al for winning connections. The veteran 8-year-old 3-Jalen Journey returns from the east coast, making his second start off the claim and drops in for a career-low claiming tag. He’s a 10-time winner.
Race #3: 1-Bajan Bashert ran a better-than-looks 3rd in grass debut back in March when taking a bad step and closing late to get into the trifecta. This filly has hit the board in all 4 career starts and the barn has solid numbers with horses returning off 61-180 days’ rest. 5-Diamands Danzig makes first grass start with little turf pedigree but has finished second in half her starts thus far (8-0-4-1) and must be respected off that consistency alone. The D’Amato barn sends out the firster 3-Hot Thirst Trap but these connections rarely fire with their grass debut runners going 1 for 30 at DMR the past 5 years.
Race #4: 1-Liberal Lady has speed and the rail for trainer Leonard Powell who is off to a fast start this summer meet. 4-Micro Share exits a career-best effort at Pleasanton for hall-of-fame connections and makes 3rd start of the form cycle. She’s the one to beat if she can replicate that last effort over this racetrack. 2-Kuora (Per) has been freshened since sharp back-to-back 7-furlong wins at Santa Anita where she earned some strong Beyer numbers that must be respected here.
Race #5: 1-Bossy Bruin Girl lost all chance in a well-backed debut June 23 at Ellis when breaking slowly and spotting the field several lengths. The daughter of multiple grade one winner Good Magic will likely improve in the second career start for trainer Doug O’Neill. She’s worked well at San Luis Rey. 4-Nothing Like You (By Malibu Moon) debuts off some inspiring a.m. drills for Team Baffert, who consistently has his juveniles ready to fire at this racetrack. 3-Great Forty Eight is by multiple grade 1 winner Constitution, who gets a solid 18% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. She looks to have some sharp gate speed for trainer Tim Yakteen who also sends out firster Discrepancy.
Race #6: Dirt to turf 1-My Summer Dream has run some solid efforts sprinting on grass that match up well here and he should be able to work out a favorable ground-saving trip with today’s rail draw. Upset chance. 4-Took Charge sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (87) off back-to-back strong turf efforts going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita. The gelding turns back in distance to 5 furlongs and makes second start off the Knapp claim. 8-Barristan The Bold drops in class and returns to 5 furlongs where he’s a 4-time winner. Trainer Librado Barocio has clicked over 40% with horses in claiming races less than $40k in the past 3 DMR meets.
Race #7: 1-California Tiger lost the head bob in a much-improved second career start for Mullins in May and has trained sharply since that top try. The field’s best last-out main track Beyer (75) adds to the appeal. 6-Driver’s Ed returns off nearly a year layoff as a first-time gelding for conditioner Dan Blacker with Lasix after a strong runner-up finish last August over this racetrack. It’s encouraging that there’s no panicky class drop here, and he’s worked well for today’s return. 2-Mr. Disrespectful saw his Beyer figures increase over 20 points in the last start after flashing good speed and tiring late to finish 3rd –beaten less than a length. The gelding gets a weight break here and could get brave on the front end if able to shake free early on.
Race #8: 6-Organic was an impressive 5 ½-length Maiden winner June 18 when switched to grass for trainer Neil Drysdale and that race has produced a pair of next-out winners. This filly is a threat right back against winners. 2-Don’t Ju Forget finished an excellent 2nd off an 8-month layoff for Miller and now switches back to turf for her second start off the bench. This filly’s grass efforts last fall were strong, and Shanghai Surprise came back to win Thursday afternoon. She exited that same July 8 race at Los Al. Dirt to turf 5-Big Sis Little Sis exits two minor stake races for this softer spot.
Race #9: 3-Pushiness bounded away in sharp-looking Maiden score June 9 while appearing to have plenty of run in reserve. This filly has worked well since that effort. Stakes winner 2-Grand Slam Smile is 2 for 2 for trainer Steve Specht and a recent 5-furlong bullet drill July 30 at Pleasanton indicates she remains razor sharp for connections. 7-Crazy Hot flattened to finish third as the beaten favorite after breaking a step slow in the Fasig-Tipton Debutante but can rebound here.
Race #10: 3-Maltese Falcon (Ire) will need some pace to run at but comes in here off a good 2nd in the Cinema Stakes June 11 with an improving Beyer pattern and makes the all-important 3rd start off the bench. Hernandez takes over for trainer Leonard Powell. 2-Agency was a troubled trip sixth in the Oceanside July 21 and can improve here moving inside. 7-Henry Q goes dirt to turf for Team O’Neil after fading on the lead in the grade 3 Ohio Derby when last seen June 24. His pedigree doesn’t necessarily scream turf, but he’s expected to be forwardly placed here for an excellent turf pilot.
Race #11: First-time gelding 3-Snapp Daddy drops from $50k to $20,000 Maiden Claimers and has run par or better for this class level. He should be rallying strongly through the lane going 7 furlongs. 9-Mt. Zeror showed improved speed in his second career start finishing a sharp 2nd, earning the field’s best last-out main track Beyer. A logical threat with another forward move. Beaten favorite 7-Hard Times adds blinkers for the second start off the extended layoff and can improve here for trainer Andy Mathis. He was a wide closing 3rd at Pleasanton July 2 in a short field.