Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Americaredwhiteblu (GB) (Race 3)
Race #1: Class-dropping 3-Hurricane Cloud (GB) makes the third start of the form cycle with an improving Beyer pattern for the Papaprodromou barn and gets top billing in the Sunday opener. The Oct. 1 race he exits has produced three next-out winners. 4-Tiz Plus is a re-claim for conditioner Mike Puype coming off a solid runner-up effort behind Departure Oct. 14. This barn is 3 for 10 (30%) the past 5 years with new acquisitions at DMR and lures Prat. 2-Departure steps up in class off decent-looking gate-to-wire victory in his initial grass try.
Race #2: 5-Signofthecross is a 7-time winner and has run well over the DMR course (1-1-0) from only three prior tries. The 6-year-old gelding has fired a (72) Beyer speed figure in the last four consecutive races. 4–Tembo was trounced in both local tries over this surface over the summer but exits a decent runner-up finish at SA Oct. 21 where the gelding earned the field’s best last out Beyer (73). Turf to dirt 3-Warren’s Candy Man was well-beaten in the last pair but takes a sizable class plunge this afternoon and deserves a chance to land in the trifecta at this reduced $8k claiming level.
Race #3: 1–Americaredwhiteblu finished a solid second when returning off a year layoff Oct. 22 for trainer Mark Glatt and now stretches back out to a mile this afternoon. The 5-year-old gelding has speed, the rail, and attracts Prat. 4-Big Hat Willie ran equally well when making his initial grass start in last earning the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (85) when coming up only a neck short for trainer Peter Miller when facing similar. The gelding is reunited with Fresu this afternoon who was aboard for both of this 3-year-old’s career main track scores. 3-Lemon Sushi rallied to finish second despite a slow start on the most recent try Nov. 7 and now stretches out to a mile for the second start off the mini-freshening.
Race #4: Trainer Bob Baffert sends out firster 2-Yangarra (by multiple grade 1 winner Twirling Candy) who gets 16% with his 3-year-old and up debuting prodigy. The $440K purchase debuts with Lasix off a snappy work tab and attracts Hernandez for today’s unveiling. 5-Judge Miller is a $550K Keeneland purchase by Curlin who is unleashed for Glatt and Prat who are 4 for 12 (33%) with a $3.05 ROI the past 4 years with debut runners. This colt is nicely drawn outside off some flashy-looking a.m. drills. 4-Matanzas Creek attracted solid tote support on Oct. 22 unveiling when flashing early zip and tiring to finish fifth and last. This Empire Maker colt is eligible to move forward off that effort, however, and the barn had a 9-1 Maiden winner last Sunday.
Race #5: 3-Not A Sinner (GB) ran well to finish second in her lone stateside effort on Oct. 14 and will likely appreciate getting off the rail today for trainer Simon Callaghan. 8-Impec (Ire) improved 20 points on the Beyer scale in her second career start Oct. 14 on the turnback. She crossed the wire in third but was Dq’d and placed seventh for interference, however. The 2-year-old filly switches to top turf pilot Berrios this afternoon and should be all set for a career-best effort making the all-important third start. 5-Alluring is by multiple grade 1 winner Ghostzapper who gets 10% with debuting prodigy and 14% with turf sprint runners. This filly has worked well in the a.m. and lures Prat for Hall of Fame conditioner Richard Mandella.
Race #6: 9-Envisioned flashed brief speed before tiring badly in initial outing Sept. 7 for trainer Peter Eurton and now drops in for a first-time tag in second career start. The race she exits from has produced a pair of next-out winners and this filly will likely improve substantially in today’s second start. 5-Cocktail Cutie did little running against MDSW types when switched to turf but drops back down to face softer and moves back to dirt today where she’s had some success this past summer over this racetrack. 3-Girlcanthelpit is by multiple grade 1 winner Frosted debuting for trainer Gary Mandella who has had a pair of debut winners from limited opportunities.
Race #7: 5-Worse Read Sanchez is 1 for 21 but in his defense hasn’t had ideal pace scenarios in recent outings for Team O’Neill. Today’s race projection, however, should set him up nicely with a potential good late run from behind. His stablemate 2–Derecho Dandy makes the second start off the claim today and drops below $32k Aug. 24 purchase price. 10-Numero Dix (GB) must negotiate another tough post draw but comes off two decent tries against cheaper and makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon for conditioner Jeff Mullins.
Race #8: 5-Nysos was an impressive 10 ½-length Maiden winner on Oct. 21 Santa Anita debut for trainer Bob Baffert earning an eye-catching (96) debut Beyer speed figure. The juvenile colt by Nyquist removes the blinkers today, stretches out to seven furlongs, and looks like the main speed again for his first stakes try. His stablemate 2-Mission Beach returns to the west coast after flashing speed and tiring to fifth in the grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga Sept. 4 when fighting through some taxing fractions. The Curlin colt was a sharp debut winner over this course at first asking back on Aug. 5 and is likely to bounce back here. Kentucky invader 4-Stronghold has looked good in both pair of outings for D’Amato and has trained impressively since arriving in Southern California.
Race #9 The lightly raced 8-Antibes goes two sprints to a route for trainer Carla Gaines and figures to be a handful if he can run back to that solid (71) turf debut Beyer from Sept. 29. 1-Touchdown Kittie makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon combined with an improving Beyer pattern and figures to find today’s mile trip ideal. The 3-year-old gelding returned to drill five furlongs in a sharp :59.4 Nov. 12 after a compromising journey on most recent start. 9-Dark Marcus makes career start number 16 this afternoon but has hit the board in eight of his first 15 starts and both of his route grass tries over this course this past summer were extremely competitive for this level.