Favored Omaha Beach is out of the Derby with an entrapped epiglottis and PTF and JK are flummoxed. Listen to them try to make sense of it all and update their thoughts in an unscheduled 20 minute show.
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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
All right folks. No aheads, no intro. No. Hello and welcome. This is an emergency pod cast, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel here in the Brooklyn bunker. You know, I fancy myself a pretty good parrot, but sometimes you just got call in the old electronic babysitter parents upstairs watching shows because. I needed to talk to somebody about the news.
We just heard about Omaha beach. So I reached out to the one, the only, the people’s champion, Jonathan Kinchin J K what do you make of this crazy news? You know, it actually makes me sick to my stomach for a certain amount. For a certain extent, to a certain extent, based on my first Derby I ever went to.
And I was actually reminiscing on that today when I wrote this piece, but 2009, I had a future and I want revenge. I was sitting at a Bob Evans eating my favorite French toast in the world. And I got the news that, um, that I want revenge was scratched and I was devastated. Some people know where they were during the Kennedy assassination for JK, he, where he remembers that the flavor syrup at the Bob Evans, when I want revenge was scratched back, uh, back in the day, a future wage, or was that a legally placed future wage or back in the day?
I think the statute of limitations has run out. No, I was not, it was one of those janky, uh, you know, off shore deals are, you know, one of those deals deals, you know, back in the day before the poker boom, all got shut down when that stuff was a little bit safer. So, um, you know, mess around and get your money stuck out in some foreign country at this point.
Let’s get down to business here. J K Omaha beach. We on the pop main podcast, we all pick the horse. I mean, this was one, I read what you wrote. People are probably like, Oh, JK is talking about writing. So they can’t wait to see that on the, in the money podcast blog, no folks. JK is cheating on us. He’s writing something for another podcast by the end of the show.
We’ll let you plug that properly. I don’t really mind. I’m just kidding. Um, but. It certainly throws the race into chaos. The first idea I had is weirdly, and I don’t know if I’m right about this, but I think part of the reason I was thinking that closers could come into the race. Was, I was really confident in Omaha beach being sort of the best speed type.
And I had this vision that even if there wasn’t that fast of a pace, that at the time he would attack, it would probably crack a lot of speed horses and at least bring it open for some closers to run into the money without him. The pace just muddies for me in a weird way. How do you think the Omaha beach scratch changes the pace of this year’s Kentucky Derby?
Well, it makes me nervous. I had a, I won’t mention the guy’s name, a friend of mine. Uh, reached out and said, Hey, I went to the bank and I took out a lot of money to bet on maximum security. And I spent 15 minutes talking them out of that saying like, man, don’t do that. Don’t do that. This horse is suddenly in a situation where he could be a little bit looser than I would prefer UV.
One of my main confidence boosters and giving him that advice was that Omaha beach would snap him at half it’s three-eights pole or maybe even sooner. Um, I still think someone will snap them in half. I guess the good news, uh, for, for podcast guests Weaver is I think McComb has got a much better shot than I think he did have think is a good horse.
And Paul Mitzi said it when we were, when he was on the show earlier that it’s not that he doesn’t think of. Acomas a good horse. It’s the fact that he feels like Omaha, beaches is so much better and his style was going to be disadvantageous to the other. Uh, horses that are going to be forwardly placed.
So, um, you know, I think it probably changes the pace to a certain extent. I think some of those forward horses make us a little bit more sense. Um, but it’s not like I’m reaching for, for some horse. It’s looking to be on the lead and, and now I have all the answers. I still, I think there should be enough pace.
There’s too many horses that have to go for the maximum security scenario wire to wire to emerge. I do feel confident with chatting on Twitter about this today, that it will be maximum security. On the lead. I don’t know why exactly. I feel that way. I’m not sure if that’s enough time for him even has it that way, but yeah, in my reckoning of the race, I think part of it does have to do with the company ownership of game winner.
It just feels like both of those horses can still have their best chance. If maximum security is the one to send hard and game winner runs his kind of customary trip. But I don’t know. I just think that, I mean, just a few other random thoughts. I’m sorry. Not organized here today. I usually try to have. Uh, be a little more coherent, but that’s thus as the nature of an emergency pod, certainly for those of you.
And it was all three of you who loved him. Probable, I was still a little scared about that last eighth of a mile for him. You guys have talked me into certainly trying to construct some savers with improbable on top, but I mean, I wish we could bring them a TCIs back when we bothered them enough today in your mind, does he just become your clear number one pick now JK.
Sorry about the background noise was a guy who was revving his engine on his motorcycle. It’s the, uh, it’s the street racing version of, of, uh, stop the race. It’s annoying and pointless. And it does us. No good. But what I’ll say here is I, you know, I texted Martha Graham after I heard the news and said, I feel a little dirty singling improbable.
I felt confident using just those two, just Omaha beach beach, and just. Um, and probable, but I, I didn’t, I don’t feel as confident just putting all of my eggs into that one basket. So now obviously I’m gonna have to go back and reevaluate how I’m going to play that. He’s still going to be my top pick.
He’s still going to be the horse, I think is the most likely to win, but there’s other horses. I think now we’ll sneak into the equation that I was fine leading out because of the power that I, that I felt that Omaha beach had in his back pocket. So, um, and probably will still is my top pick. However I am going to look for, uh, for maybe another alternative of a horse to use maybe defensively, or maybe even a little bit heavier than that.
That’s going to be forwardly placed. Uh, maybe a horse like Tacoma, um, maybe a horse, uh, suddenly, suddenly I think Roadster’s going to be written a little bit differently than that. I think he was, I think Bob respected Omaha beach. And now without him being in there, a Roadster who’s, who’s shown speed in the past might be put into the race a little bit more, uh, which is unfortunate.
Cause he was a horse that I was looking to automatically toss horse, like off, could be asked to be put into the race a little bit earlier from that outside post. I think he had to anyway, and now it there’s a lot more chance of that having success. I think, I mean enough now that I, we, you know, we’re like we said, it’s an emergency pot.
We haven’t thought about this where we’re told, we’re thinking it through. This happened about in the last 20 minutes. I actually think that the pace is going to be faster than it was with Omaha beach. Oh, you got to explain that to me. Cause that doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s a mind, right? I think a lot of people realized that I think a lot of people really respected Omaha beach and the fact that he was going to be four, no one wanted to be where he was because.
They’re not as good as him, but now that he’s not going to be up there, I think more people will be a little bit more brave to kind of get that position he was going to get, he was going to sit right off of maximum security. Now that spot is available. A horse like Roadster, a horse, like spinoff can now take that spot and sit right off of maximum security.
I take your point about those horses having a better chance. I just don’t know necessarily about it being faster, but I guess what you’re saying is with that sort of role, Out of the equation, maybe a couple of horses are going for the same spot and maybe things end up heating up. Somehow I’m not getting off my code of honor.
My topic has been tasked at, as it will continue to be tasked at us. I believe he’s versatile and improving despite the lack of love from the other, uh, three other three of you when we talked on the podcast earlier, but it’s just a, it’s a bit. It’s a bit bewildering. I was going to save you trouble JK.
Now I think you’re just going to have to get the silver wig out in full force, because I think I have a feeling all three of those baskets are going to end up as A’s on your tickets. No, I mean, I was making an interesting point about Roadster. Uh, he could be upgraded to a B, but at no point will Roadster ever be an a, um, you know, I don’t, I don’t care if we get another, another scratch.
Knock on wood. I will say this. So the favorite, who is who now? Oh, that’s a great question. This is the first I’ve thought about it. And I mean, isn’t it Roadster? I sure hope so. I hope you’re right about that. Um, and you know, I think people, it’s funny because, and probable didn’t win in the slop, but he ran huge in the slop.
And so I feel like when people are wanting to talk about who’s good in the slop or who’s good on an off track, they, they go to see the wind column there. Uh, You know, I think Al improbable obviously is, is very capable on and off track. And the more and more I look at this weather report and knowingly enough, it does look like there’s going to be some moisture, both days wet.
Um, I also very quick thought for those of you listening to this right away, does that take you completely off of Florida? Lamar? I’m just basing that on something you wrote, not something you said the other day. If it does come up super wet as Florida Lamar, still on your tickets in the Oaks. You know, I was talking to, I don’t remember.
I was like, nothing was maybe Jake Valdez who pointed out there breeding wise. There’s really no excuse for her to not like that surface, but she clearly doesn’t or she didn’t, she hadn’t that day. But I thought that there could have been other explanations. I don’t know I was going to fully give her a chance.
15 to one 20 to one. I’ll give her a look Christ dude. Like she’s going to be six to one. I think Bob Baffert Godolphin like this horse that looks laid out. I just think that’s a bad line. I mean, maybe I’m wrong, but I think she is going to be bad. So that’s an interesting potential chink in the armor. Um, we’ll see what happens anyway.
We shouldn’t talk too much about the Oaks. Cause a lot of people I do have to give you your, your a four minute beer warning. I am four minutes aware. Away from my, uh, first, uh, evening beverage. And som I have to cut you off. We need to get this thing up and running anyway. So that’s just fine. Another thing I wanted to talk to you about improbable since the podcast, we had good conversations in our group texts about the blinkers situation, which I think the more I think about is another reason improbable could run well, uh, let you go through your theory about it, and then I’ll piggyback.
Yeah. I mean, I think that, you know, when it comes to these big races, we don’t want to see a horse. Who’s been like blinkers his whole life. And then before the biggest race of his life, he takes the blinkers off, like, right. That’s the negative stat that we’ve all heard about making the change before your biggest race, but that wasn’t the case with him.
Probably he never ran with blinkers. He won, I think what a grade one or two grade, one grade, one without blinkers. Right. And then he, he, they decided to add them. I think Bob did it as kind of an experiment and it didn’t go well. He was, you know, he was cantankerous in the gate leading up to the Arkansas Derby.
And I think that Bob, thank you. I appreciate that you have been working on that. Although I do a podcast with you every week and you start throwing these crazy words at me. Uh, yeah, I had to step my game up. I got a vocab app. I set it right next to Instagram. So instead of going to Instagram, I just hit the vocab app anyways.
Um, you know, I just think that it was an experiment that went wrong and, uh, it wasn’t some weird thing. They’re trying to figure the horse out and it was just an experiment and he took them off and I watched the work the other day with a horse that. Paul Matisse Duke Matisa myself, all like emboldened.
Um, who’s in runs 90 type figures and is running in the Humana. Distaff, uh, improbable, blew her away in his work without the blinkers on the racetrack at Churchill where he has a win already. I think that was impressive enough that I could care less about the shade. And I feel like in a way they give them an excuse to run better because he did misbehave in the gate.
And maybe that contributed to him not showing his best for him. I mean, just think about it logically if you’re having this stressful experience right before you put in an athletic performance, it makes sense that you might be able to come forward a little bit for that. But yeah, it’s an interesting question.
This favoritism question. I really think it’s a question of the Baffert being, I think he’s going to think he’s going to have the first three choices now. He’s got two doesn’t. He. Oh, that would be fun. That would be fun. Yeah, I think so. And I hope so. Cause it just, it’s a fun talking point at least. And we’ll get all of the, uh, the bathroom Hayden hall worked up and um, I think game winter will be.
You know what I think game winter will probably be favored. He’s two year old form. He’s third right now in the sharpest book. Now that book still has Omaha beach and they haven’t updated. It’s laid over there, but just FYI, like a clear, can you grab, can you grab like improbable right now? I mean, Sorry, let’s go a, an off air, but there’s nobody, there’s nobody awake.
You can’t get a bet down right now. I mean, maybe you could online in England. I think that’s a recipe for never being allowed to bet. Again, I would not, I would not recommend that I would not feel ethically comfortable doing that. And I don’t even know if it’s possible that’s to answer the question. What will happen now is all those prices obviously are going to be reduced with Omaha beach coming out of the race.
And depending on it’s it’s too in the weeds, I could explain more, but it’s too in the weeds, but anyway, let’s just move on from, from your cheeky question. Just looking at the horses in the race, looking at what’s left, I’m now concerned about Tacitus. I’m not concerned about, but he he’s certainly gonna be a single digit odd now I think, right.
Yeah. You know, these New York horses always seem to take money. Right? I, I just think that that Niagara has such a big following that the winners of their races always seem to, uh, to, to take a little bit of money. I don’t, I don’t know what the text message said, but I received a text message from the person I talked off of maximum security on this.
It’s asking for my blessing. That’s hilarious. All right. You are just about where you need to be. Sounds like. Improbable, the coma moves up for you. The other Baffert in the mix for me. I am sticking with Tacitus. I’m. I’m still not fully convinced on improbable, but I’m going to be using him much more than I was before the Omaha beach scratch.
And before I talked to the three of you in the earlier podcast game winner, isn’t beaten me out of stuff. Gosh, we I’ve just gotten down to a point now, JK, where I’m like all over the top of the market. I may have to cut down the amount. I was going to bet on this race, but this happens sometimes. And it is what it is.
We’re happy to get a few words out to you. One thing I wanted to ask you about the Churchill card, I don’t know if you’ve looked at the whole thing on Saturday, we talked about Instagram and the other show, so we can leave that one, hidden scroll coming back where you have your handicap, that race and where are you going to be with?
I, I was, you know, what’s funny, Pete is, is, uh, and you know, we usually communicate via text when we’re doing the show. Uh, it’s kinda how we can sometimes. You know, you could open me back up to say something else, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But I texted you that I had one, I had a final thought and my final thought was this hidden scroll, um, shows up in the third.
I think it’s the third. Maybe it’s the, maybe the second, third, fourth, second. The early card early. Yeah. You’ll find them. You can’t miss him. Um, look, he is going to be so viciously over bet, especially if there’s moisture in the track. And there’s a horse in there by the name of Fort and city for Chad Brown that ran a freakishly fast number as a two year old.
And I’ll say it again. I’ve said it once. I’ll say it again to the Duke Matisse angle that Duke taught me when these two year olds come back as three-year-olds, you’re going to look to see a, about a 10 to 15 point increase on the buyer scale of what number they were running. And if you add 10 to 15 points to what Fort and city ran.
A hidden scroll might be in trouble. He’s drawn outside a ton of value on that horse. Um, I, I made this, I made this comment in a group chat in Eric, violet challenged me to a head to head and, uh, and, uh, he didn’t, he didn’t put any, any, any, uh, anything at stake yet. We’ll see what he says, but, uh, I like Fort and city in that spot to try to beat hidden scroll and look him in still could win, but I want nothing to do with him at what’s probably going to be like three to five if it’s raining outside.
And if it’s sloppy, so. Uh, give me a Fort and city on that spot. Those pools can be weird. I I’d wait and see, we’ve seen horses on these cards that should have been three to five, four to five, go off at a, even six to five. One of the thought that just popped in my head JK, this changes who’s in the 14 gate, doesn’t it?
It does Dukes. Duke’s horses no longer. I believe that your slide, everything down, I would assume. So, which would mean. That now the poor gate goes to master fencer, who wasn’t going to win. If they let him start a quarter of a mile into the race and win-win win is now sort of an interesting horse potentially though.
As we were talking before about who has the potential to be that, you know, my boy Jack type horse, who gets bet because of the name and because he’s a little wise guy, he, you know, who knows maybe when, when, when does become that horse. Anyway, he’s one, I’m just keeping an eye on. He was one, I was going to toss that I’m going to keep an eye on and we can’t end this conversation JK without a word about the new runner in the race.
So we haven’t talked about at all Bodie express. Yeah. If you know, Frank, uh, Franklin star, he was on the show today, the monster pod talked about him a little bit and gave you some reasons why he used that horse to help him get the victory in the Hawthorne invitationals. So, uh, if you haven’t checked that out now, I honestly can’t remember what he said.
Um, I know the horse had a fast figure. In, and I think he came out of the hidden scroll race. Um, so I think that was part of the angle that led him to that horse. Yeah, sure. Obviously he’s drawn the 20 posts and then he’s got a lot to do from out there, but I’m definitely one to consider. And to your point, about the 14, the auxiliary gate, the 14th and 15 now I would believe that game winner who was in the 16 now drops down to the 15.
He becomes that horse that we all want to keep an eye on for being a problem in the gate. The good news about him is. I don’t recall him having gait issues. He is a, obviously a mature horse. Who’s been running significantly since he was a two year old. I would imagine that gate won’t be an issue for him, but don’t quote me on that.
Double-check watch a couple of replays, make sure that gate winner doesn’t take a right turn or a left turn. Uh, from the gate, I couldn’t disagree with you more about Bodhi express. I would not bet him with found money. I don’t think it has any chance on God’s green earth. So I still think you can safely put an X there, but I mean, at the price, the horse is going to be, it’s going to be 60 or 70 to one.
He should be 200 to one, but, um, you know, it doesn’t really doesn’t really change much. Uh, as far as I’m concerned, I’m, I’m actually kind of shocked. You’re considering them. Oh, well, maybe I was just talking really fast. I didn’t really mean that I was considering it. I was just saying that frankly, starry might’ve had a reason that you liked him.
Um, I wouldn’t bet him with a pig, three boys money.
Oh my goodness. And on that note, we’re going to close out this edition of the emergency pod. Thank you for checking it out. Check out all our stuff in the podcast feed and lots of great content over at, in the money podcast.com and JK. Why don’t you just give a quick shout out before we wrap it for this piece you’re writing and probably have to completely rewrite now.
Yeah, I got to do some adjusting. Uh, I, I’m not sure, actually, we’re actually not even sure where it’s going. I just, uh, did a favor. They asked, uh, the guys from racing dudes put like a little betting strategy guide together and, and, uh, I covered the two day pick six, which was an easy volunteer for me.
Cause it’s the bed I plan on putting the most. Money into, from a parimutuel standpoint. So I felt like the hard work would, uh, would be beneficial on my end for, uh, for the bed itself. Very good job giving out the plug, but why don’t we just say that you will tweet it when it’s available. You got to help these guys come on, man.
I’ll replay that it’s it’s, it’s the racing dudes on Twitter. You can, it’s easy to find easy to find. Excellent, sure. That that gets tweeted out to our people as well. Got to see, I’m curious, you know, the writer in me was I feel a little bit. Threatened here. J K, we gotta see what you come up with. I don’t want you, you know, upstaging me.
You not only did you pluck me from obscurity now you sent me up to steal your job, turn about Fairplay or something. All right. That’s it. No clothes. We’re just going to end this thing called, but thanks for sticking with us and God speed in the Kentucky Derby.