Good sequence today as none of the races should have a big favorite and the field sizes are solid.
Leg 1, SA Race 9: 1,6,9
Pretty competitive claiming race kicks off the sequence, the morning line favorite is only 3-1. I’m not a fan of either of the two favorites and my top pick will be #1 Big Swede (5-1). His last start wasn’t great, but I’m willing to give him another shot based on his prior form. He had been running competitively at this level earning respectable figures. Cerin claimed him two back and will try to right the ship today, and the typically high percentage barn is due to heat up. He’s a horse with a lot of tactical speed, so I envision he will track the pace and hug the rail around both turns and hope to get through late with a 10 pound break in the weights. #9 Crypto Munny (10-1) is an interesting price play from off the pace. It’s a difficult pace scenario to predict, but he could be the one to take advantage if it really heats up. Kruljac has been hot all year and claimed him two back while immediately stretching him back out to two turns on the turf. That didn’t go well but he does get back to the dirt today and he scored a decisive victory on this surface back in November. #6 Careless Kitten (6-1) is another should be stalking the pace. He’s a career nibbler, but he’s only had two tries at this level and did finish second last time so I’m willing to give him one more shot. His best figures put him squarely in the hunt and he’s reunited with win-rider Vasquez.
Leg 2, GG Race 8: 4,8
Three scratches reduces this race to seven runners on the turf course. After the scratches, #4 Indian Dancer looks like she might be the lone speed. In her only turf start she was able to hit the board despite not making the lead. The Golden Gate turf course typically favors horses on the front end and if this filly is able to sneak away on the front end she could prove tough to catch. The one to fear from the back could be #8 Shanghai Mist. She’s never tried the turf before, but she’s certainly bred for it and this trainer has good stats with turf starters. She’s in good form right now hitting the exacta in four of her past five and she has the best late pace figures in the field.
Leg 3, SA Race 10: 11 w 1,7,8
#11 Belmont Bill (7/2) has run extremely well in his last couple starts. I love that Aquilar puts the pedal to the medal early and tries to run them off their feet. It hasn’t gotten the job done yet, but he has finished second in his last two while being well clear of the third place spot. The extra furlong shouldn’t be an issue for him nor should this outside draw with his style and the long run to the first turn. The only real concern is the presence of the #9 who may also be hard sent, but he’ll be tough if he can clear the field. If he doesn’t win it’s really anyone’s race. For backups I want to use the #1 The Key Is Unity (6-1). He’ll have to figure out a way to turn the tables on the top choice, but he’s drawn well and I think he’ll like getting back to nine furlongs. The #8 Russell’s Hustle (6-1) should appreciate getting back to the turf course. His figures have stagnated a bit but a couple of those starts were on dirt and he’s certainly bred to handle the turf better. He picks up leading rider Hernandez and should be stalking the pace. And finally a crazy longshot is the #7 Tiz a Class Act (20-1). This 4 year old is making his first start today and usually I wouldn’t be a fan of that going 9 furlongs. But he’s been working on a consistent basis since last August at Del Mar. I have no idea why he hasn’t been entered until now, but I have to assume fitness won’t be an issue with that kind of work tab and that they’ll want him to be fully cranked up since they’re waited so long to get him to the races. He outworked a recent maiden claiming winner on XBTV back in February and this jockey/trainer duo does well together. Bombs away.
Leg 4, GG Race 9: 4,7
We close out the sequence with an allowance race going 5.5 furlongs on the tapeta. Not a lot of pace signed on here which could suit #7 Commander Khai (4-1). He’s been a bit camera shy of late but should have every opportunity to get the job done today. His first try on the tapeta was encouraging as he dueled early on, shook off that pace rival and stayed on well beaten less than a length. That pace rival finished nowhere and today he cuts back half a furlong with what should be a more favorable pace scenario. #4 Talbot Bay (8-1) is the other horse I want to use. A lot of these have been taking turns beating each other and Talbot Bay represents a fresh face. He’s won two straight starter allowance races earning Beyer figures of 79 and 80 and those figures match up well with the rest of the field. He’s still lightly raced making just five starts so far, and he’s improved his figures with each start. I don’t think he’ll be 8-1, but he should still provide some value with the $1 pick 4.
Ticket:
SA 1: 1,6,9
GG 1: 4,8
SA 2: 11
GG 2: 4,7
$48 (4 times)
Backup Ticket:
SA 1: 1,6,9
GG 1: 4,8
SA 2: 1,7,8,11
Gg 2: 4,7
$48
