Gulfstream Park Late Pick 5 3/18/2020

By Matt Vagvolgyi @BlinkersOn22

Track: Gulfstream

Date: 3/18/2020

Wager: Pick 5 / Late

Take Out: 15%

GP / Late Pick 5 / Results / Wednesday’s Only / Last Month

Average Pool: $271,749

Average Pay: $1,814.75

Average Price: $9.10

Median Price: $7.10

Race #6 / Leg #1 /  A= 2,3 B= 1,4,6

30k Claiming / 4+ / 6F / Dirt

Pace: Looks to be ordinary pace with #3 Big Spender setting the early fractions, #4 Poppy’s Destiny should be up close as well but expect Big Spender to clear. The rest of the field should be tightly bunched for the 6f sprint. #2 Jungle warrior, #6 Lucky Runs North, and #1 Atthepearlygates will all be heard from late. Competitive race where I will use most of the field but will separate contenders.

Key Horses:

#2 Jungle Warrior will be one of two A’s in the race. Like many in this race checkered PP’s with pros and cons. Comes in off 100+ day layoff dropping in off a 7f effort at Woodbine. Jungle Warrior reports in as a gelding with a class edge over this filed and will have Irad aboard. Has OK efforts on the dirt, given first time dirt was the G2 Remsen at the big A and next out at GP ran evenly going 7. Has shown improvement getting out of the gate with early pace last two out on the turf. Jungle Warrior lays closer today and has the back class to run em down in the end.

ANGLE: Morning Line Conversion to Win Probability +50% Edge Over Field (via TRUE ODDS)

Over 1 Year / Starts: 4,273 / Win% 30% / Algorithm criteria met #2 Jungle Warrior

#3 Big Spender gets back to sprinting on the dirt at GP at a level that has shown competitive performance. Second off a layoff, last out not much to write about ran even with no kick in the lane. Two and three back Big Spender sprinted at 5 ½ and 6 respectively on the dirt and showed speed in both efforts. I have been tracking overall track metrics at GP (post,surface,pace, early and late ect) and as of late inside speed sprinting on the dirt at GP has been the place to be. I project Big Spender to clear but may be hounded by #4 Poppy’s Destiny and can compromise his ability to win and why I will be using others off the pace. My play will be that Big Spender sets the pace and might have just enough to hang on in the end with closers coming in late like #2 Jungle Warrior. Key angle below for speed sprinting on the dirt at GP.

ANGLE: Gulfstream / Dirt Sprint / Post 3 or Less / On the lead

Over 1 Year / Starts 352 / Win% 26% / +11% ROI…….same criteria over last 2 weeks: Starts 14 / Win% 21% / +49% ROI. Criteria met #3 Big Spender.

Will also use #1 Atthepearlygates, #6 Lucky Runs North. Both should lay off the pace and depending on pressure up front may set up for either of them. I will include #4 Poppy’s Destiny as another speed option, if Big Spender gets out dueled and speed holds Poppy’s Destiny will be the horse. Completive race to start.

Race #7 / Leg #2 / A = 1,2,4,9  B = 5

20k Claiming / 3YO / 1 Mile / Turf

Pace: #4 Lalali will look to set the pace on the mile journey but may be pressed on the inside by #3 Alafia. #1 Beasaichi should sit just off the pace and be able to save ground and get into a nice rhythm with Gaffalione aboard. I see quick fractions early but will settle down on the back stretch which will allow Lalali to open up a bit and Alafia falling back.  Some key horses coming off the pace are #2 R Sea Smoke, #9 Wicked Solution, and #5 Gea. The question I have is how much Lalali will come back to field and does it set up for top closer Beasaichi sitting just off the pace.

Key Horses:

#1 Beasaichi comes in first off the claim for Bob Hess with Tyler Gaffalione. Last two races going a mile at GP were solid races at same level of competition today. Both efforts produced seconds coming from off the pace. Look for Beasaichi to lay closer to the pace today and to get first run at #4 Lalali in the stretch. The combination of strong early pace figures and top late pace numbers in the field should put Beasaichi in a great spot. As of late in Turf routes at GP front end speed has not fared as well as it has early on in the meet. At one point that’s pretty much all I looked for, who would get the lead and does the horse have any evidence of finish. Looking at the stats, I have looked for more coming off the pace. Below are angles and stats to shed some more light.

ANGLE: Turf Route / Post 6 or Less / Highest Late Pace in the Field / No More than 3 back at 1^st call

Over 6 Months / Starts 181 / Win% 20% / -12% ROI

Over 2 Weeks / 22 Starts / Win% 50% / +57% ROI

Stat: Bob Hess / 1^st off the Claim / Starts 59 / Wins 11 / Win% 19% / +4% ROI

Small sample for sure, but a great way to identify when a track may be playing different. I will look for the 1,2,9 from off the pace, #4 to take it gate to wire on the front end. I have the #5 Gea as a lone “B” even though this horse has the same top closing number as Beasaichi just based on pace position I don’t think Gea will have enough race track to run em down. Debating on moving Lalali from an A to B, for now will leave as A.

Race #8 / Leg #3 / A = 2  B = 1,5

23k Starter Alw / 4+ / 6f / Dirt

Pace: Pace looks slow on paper and will play to the advantage of #2 Jersey Joe B. Jersey Joe should be able to pop out of the gate with Paco, set easy fractions naturally and be the goods in the end.  #1 Killa Dee may flash speed to the inside and that is the hope for #5 Yes I see 9/5 on the ML as a deep closer. I think quick fractions out of the gate for Jersey Joe will prove too much for Killa Dee and the ease of pace will leave a lot to do with not enough track to do it in for Yes I See.

Key Horses:

 #2 Jersey Joe B should have it all on the front end with relative ease going 6 on the dirt.  Drops down from a 50k Starter Stk gojg 6 at GP, fought hard on the front end contesting the pace and gave way to be third in the end. Key from this race was the stretch drive, really dug in late and was just out finished by better. This drop will put him with his friends, key pilot in Paco Lopez to ensure the early speed necessary to get the jump on this field. Last race wheeled back in just 19 days jumping up in class..should be good spot for Jersey Joe B today. Key angle below walks through Paco Lopez on horses with early speed that have a class advantage over the field. Lone “A”

ANGLE: GP/ Paco Lopez / Dirt Sprint / Best Early Pace / Early Pace and Class Combination

Over 1 Year / Starts 53 / Win% 23% / -2% ROI

Over Last 2 Weeks / Starts 7 / Win% 29% / +17% ROI

I will include the #1 Killa Dee and #5 Yes I see as “B’s”. Both have ability to sit off and close. I prefer Killa Dee sitting closer, but if gets into duel up front Yes I see will be in prime spot. Jersey Joe B will have majority of tickets as single.

Race #9 / Leg #4 / A = 9,5,8  B = 2,6,4

52k Allowance / 4+ / 5f / Turf

Pace: A few different ways to see the pace in this one. First thoughts are #5 Jakarta first on the turf does her thing and gets to the lead like all dirt try’s. In this scenario I believe Jakarta is extremely dangerous given she can shake lose with her natural speed and if she takes to the turf and clears it may be over at the start. The other scenario I see that can muddy the waters on the win end is what #4 Just Ain’t Right does off a long layoff. showed some speed on only try on the turf back in 2019 and may be keyed up off the bench and press for the lead. I also wonder what #6 Blazen Betsy will do off the bench as well. Last time off long layoff shot out of the gate and chased a pretty fast pace. In this case th 5,4, and 6 may get together and press the issue early. If this happens my top plays #9 Kittens Covergirl and #8 Ms Meshak sit the trip and battle down to the line from off the pace. Tough to separate these and may revisit my A,B allocations…a scratch or two may help.

Key Horses:

#9 Kittens Covergirl comes off two solid efforts sprinting on the turf at GP. Gets Irad, posted outside which has proven the spot to be sprinting on the lawn. My worry is she has been camera shy since 2018, but feel her current form puts her right in the mix. The most important point along with current form is the set up she will get today. Pace option one Kittens Covergirl will sit off a slow pace and not be able to catch top honors from the #5 on a slow pace. Option two will set up nicely and will give a pace picture she hasn’t seen and may be what’s needed to get back in the winners circle.

#8 Ms Meshak has closed with a big kick on both dirt and turf. If the pace gets hot upfront Meshak will be positioned outside and has the best late pace figures in the race. This is another angle I have been tracking where front end speed seemed to dominate but has been changing as of late. Just as discussed on turf routes for horses on the inside, turf sprints seem to favorable to horses mid / outside with top closing kick.

ANGLE: Turf Sprint / Post 4+ / Highest Late Pace

Over 1 Year / Starts 227 / Win% 22% / +1% ROI

Over last 2 Weeks / Starts 14 / Win% 29% / +21% ROI

9,8,5 for me as “A’s”. The 5 to get lose and wire the field or 8 and 9 off the pace if it gets quick up front. I will include the #2 Dancing Doll who showed ability to close into a fast pace at Woodbine and can flash early speed as well. My “B” horses will be 2,4,6.

Race #10 / Leg #5 / A = 4,5,7  B = 2,10

31k Starter Alw / 4+ / 1 Mile / Turf

Pace: Should be quick up front in the final leg of the Pick 5. Expect #7 My Point Exactly to go early and may clear on the lead. #3 Sublime Appeal and #1 Til the End should press early as well and may create a strong pace in the early going. With my expectations of a fast pace, it will set up nice for #5 Flyoff who looks to sit behind the early fray of the 1,3, and 7. Along with the 5, #4 Flowmotion has shown ability to sit and close strong into both fast and slow paces. Both 5 and the 4 are top contenders off the pace, but if the 7 gets clear may be best in here.

Key Horses:

#5 Flyoff second off a long layoff, needed that race last time out against 16k claimers. Flyoff ran huge laying off the early pace and just missed for top honors, comes back off a quick freshening and should be heard from late. With the projected pace to be fast, Fyloff has shown the ability to sit just off and make a big run, my expectations for Saez to do just this today.  Flyoff meets the same criteria used in race 7 for horses drawn middle / inside with best late pace going a route on the turf (see angle race #7).

#7 My Point Exactly in top form for Carlos David and ready show speed from the outside. Gets Irad aboard who this gelding right to the front back on Jan 20 going a mile and never looked back, last our ran into a very solid Dalama and finished a hard fought second. Lets see if Irad can clear and not be bother by the inside speed, if that happens a speed duel wil be on for sure. If he can clear and relax I believe will prove best.

#2 Joyful Heart will be on tickets as a bomb in here. Has shown to be versatile being up close and sitting off the pace along with best efforts coming at this level. Torres rode perfectly last time out took it to the field that was fairly slow and hung on for 2^nd at 31-1. I will include based on angle created below that has gotten me some nice priced horses at GP

ANGLE: Turf Route / Close to Pace at Each Call / Best Middle Pace to Clear

Over Last 6 Months / Starts 36 / Win% 28% / +24% ROI

50% winners over last 2 weeks….worth a play as a “B”

Tickets are below. All base bets. I will press all A Ticket. Good Luck!

All A’s

2,3/1,2,4,9/2/5,8,9/4,5,7

A’s with One B

1,4,6/1,2,4,9/2/5,8,9/4,5,7

2,3/5/2/5,8,9/4,5,7

2,3/1,2,4,9/1,5/5,8,9/4,5,7

2,3/1,2,4,9/2/2,4,6/4,5,7

2,3/1,2,4,9/2/5,8,9/2,10

1,4,6/5/2/5,8,9/4,5,7

1,4,6/1,2,4,9/2/2,4,6/4,5,7

1,4,6/1,2,4,9/2/5,8,9/2,10