All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Please feel free to leave Comments or reach out to me on Twitter (@c_cupples) with any questions and/or suggestions.
I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
COMPLETED The work is done and I will finish typing it up early Saturday morning because unfortunately I brought back a souvenir from Vegas I did not intend too. Not only am I sick but I apparently gave this to my wife so she is sick on her birthday(Friday) BUT!! amazingly she has not blamed me yet… Wait for it….
Tickets and Post Scratch – I may not be able to update as I have a family function to attend mid morning… But will try. The plays are there and I am firing today!
Race 1 Older maidens going 7 furlongs is a spot I usually lean toward experienced runners.
LONE A – 5 Vino Frizzante has the most experience in the field and ran well going 8 furlongs last time. This looks to be the start of another Alvarado big Saturday.
LONE B – 6 Calathea got tired last time when coming off the July layoff maybe the added fitness she can hold off the favorite.
Others
1 Glamorama has some positive notes on the clocker report but nothing I seen with my own eyes. Arnold debuting going 7 furlongs in MSW’s the last 5 years 0 for 17.
2 Secret Revenge looks to be most likely to hang on for 3rd.
3 On Moonlight Bay moves back to the dirt today and while I respect the barn. When Pletcher says this is not a dirt horse…….. Well….
4 Fantastic Flame has a page full of bullets and some very positive notes on the clocker report but another I have not seen with my own eyes. Barn has a limited sample of first time starters
7 Abino Bay for DePaulo who is 11% with ALL first timers the last 5 years and none of which have made their debut on the dirt as he is primarily running at Woodbine.
Race 2 – If investing a larger amount in multi’s I would suggest using the A/ B’s if spreading but I will look to play my usual narrow it up a bit game.
A LINE – I will play a Double into my top pick here and may have a ticket with the 2 as a single as well.
2 Rozagante did everything right at this level last time except was slightly out finished the last 16th. Saffie / Edgar / Inside post / now 2nd off the claim and looks to get the same trip again.
5 Dreambuilder had some eye catching works back in November but it never translated to the race track being rank at times. Changes barns and got a bit of a break.
B LINE
1 Admiral Nelson stretches out and gets on the Turf for the first time for Casse / Dylan… So definitely one to have on tickets.
9 Richard Ave is the other obvious contender coming in with lots of changes… New Barn , Lasix, new track , dropped some wait in the groin area, etc. When in Pletcher barn this one was always just average in the mornings.
Others – Several first time starters so would check those double pools prior to race 1
6 Sigan Viendo I expect to take some money but Bee Jersey does not scream turf and not much on the bottom side.
Race 3
A LINE
2 First Shot Fired has slowly rounded into form this winter and fits with the group.
6 Blaze of Color is a one paced grindy type that will need every inch of the 8.5 furlongs but is capable.
7 Dixie Preach is the horse I want to bet in here. He is another that has slowly came into form as of late and his last going first off the claim for current connections I thought he took a small step forward that is enough to separate him from this group. If Irad was in town today this horse would likely be a 5/2 Morning Line.
B LINE – 4 5
Race 4 is the race I want the most coverage in the early sequence as these low level dirt claimers have got me too often. So nothing clever to share so will be brief. Option B – would be single the 2 just simply based on Breen/ Paco
A LINE
1 United forever
2 Wildcat Fire has not made the races in over 2 years. Kelly Breen and Paco have been a potent pair for a long time so is the logical go to.
3 One Special Act
6 Bianka Heart makes only her second dirt start of her career and first since adding the blinkers.
9 Did I Dazzle You I liked a bit on the Friday card but opted for this dirt race over the Friday Tapeta Race.
B LINE – ALL
Race 5
A LINE
1 Hot Cargo will need to take a step forward but an angle I always follow. Saffie 1st off the claim w Edgar drawn inside on the turf at any distance… USE
3 Cadencia has been in my stable mail for some time but did not expect to show up in this spot. She is 2 for 3 going the 5 furlongs on the grass and comes in off a big layoff. I know it’s Belterra and it was in June but that last race was fast!!
9 Definite Diva I will put on top but this is a race has so many interesting horses I likely will keep my money in my pocket. Nothing hidden from the page other than the Dec. 26th layoff is not exactly as it appears She was an off the turf scratch on two occasions since her last effort.
B LINE
4 Proud Mary was wide and too far back last time. Maybe Reyes can get her involved earlier to give her a shot.
5 Bel Pensiero looked like a winner at the 16th pole last out after getting a perfect trip and great ride.
6 Drum Roll often leaves herself too much to do in these short sprints but is capable if gets the right trip.
8 Miss Bodacious can win but 2-1 .. NO Thanks
Race 6
LONE A – 2 Go Big Green dropped down to this level and moved to the dirt for the first time in her 30th lifetime start while handling that group with ease. Zayas sticks aboard and not much in here to be scared of.
B LINE –
1 Motown Mika is first off the claim but obviously would need to move forward.
5 Madness has only made 3 starts over the dirt and all 3 were solid efforts, maybe she holds that form but claiming off Saffie takes some cojones I don’t have.
Race 7 – The Texas Glitter stakes I thought came up a bit light but is still interesting.
A LINE
5 I’m Otter here is a spot I will take a shot. I like the July Debut race at Ellis when he ran 3rd to Chasing Liberty who was on the early short list for Breeders Cup. Wins a route, goes to KY Downs (Tiztastic) , gets drilled in a quality field in New York, come back race was routing and I am tossing the tapeta effort. Plenty of speed in here and I believe the rail will be down so will take a swing!
6 No Evidence has a recent race opposed to the over bet favorite. Took money on debut at Saratoga then came back here in Feb. to run the quickest race of this group over this turf course.
7 Gabaldon is suppose to win… Right? Been a long while since Ascot and being against provides some extra value.
1 and 3 are also interesting and would not shock me.
Race 8 I am looking to use several so will keep it brief
A LINE – I do not have a top pick here which means I might not even have the winner but if I had to bet one it would the price on the outside 7 Noble Dreamer.
2 Founder’s Day is 2 for 2 when dropping down into the open 10K level although both those races did come going 5.5 furlongs and I do have some concern the 5 might be a bit too sharp.
4 Happy Ride two tapeta efforts came versus tougher.
5 American of Course has yet to find the winners circle since being claimed away from Saffie but is anther who has been facing a bit tougher.
7 Noble Dreamer is a use for me although she has been a step behind the ones listed above, I think the outside draw improves her chances as it fits her one paced style.
Race 9 I am going to be a bit skinny with some horses that I do not think will be near the morning line price.
7 Without Cause will be a win bet for me here facing winners for the first time. Light bulb has came on since arriving to South Florida and has came right back after the maiden breaker with another monster work on Feb 21st being held the entire way and geared down a bit before wire.
9 Escape Room is a rarity for me when I see horses have Lasix taken off as it normally does not make a difference and rarely moves them forward. She is 2 for 3 turf routing without lasix, she is tactical and ran down Goodbetterbest last time who was my sole winner on the Friday Card…
Others
6 Vino Rouge will take money but she is not for me.
8 and 10 are a bit unknown so I would not fault anyone for including.
13 Midnight Concerto is the one I would consider using if draws into the field but would like to see a jockey change.
Race 10
LONE A – 5 Runnin Rocket has a slight class advantage along with slight figure advantage over the tapeta (My Figs) and Alvarado has feasted when part of the colony is out of town for stakes days.
Lone B – 2 Jam Session is 2 for 4 over the Gulfstream Tapeta and ran a big race last out off nearly a year layoff for Abreau. Gets class tested here today but I like enough to try to get underneath.
Race 11 is a pedigree loaded MSW race with no clear standout
A LINE The two I have on the A line do not give me much confidence.
6 Golden Channel makes his third start for Weaver who is 2 for 24 in this scenario with 4 of those coming here at Gulfstream Park. 1 win / 1 2nd / 1 3rd. His last effort I have as the best figure in the field by a slim margin but the negative is that was going 7.5 furlongs with a nice first run trip but leveled off at 8th pole backing up late.
7 Buzz Rocket is a half to California Chrome that could turn out to be a nice claim for D’Angelo. Will make his third turf route try after handling the 9 furlongs last time with no issue. Not one I am in love with but in my opinion the most likely to put forth a solid effort.
B LINE
1 Weaponized I have on the A Line due to a lack of information. No Work Information….. Cox is 21% over the last 5 years with 1st Timer/Turf/Rte/MSW and 0 for 3 at Gulfstream with those same parameters.
4 McCorvey is the 3rd foal out Songbird. I have watched a few works of this one but none of which were on the grass. Mott is 9% in this spot, jumps to 16% at Gulfstream and at Gulfstream with Junior 4 for 20.
9 Thirteen Colonies had a nice debut in January before being a vet scratch Feb 15th in a maiden 75K. I liked his works prior to debut but have seen nothing recent.
13 GiftedbyDesign is a use for me if draw into the field. Moving up in class and was a vet scratch March 12th but I liked the effort back in Feb and no one in this group really caught by attention.
OTHERS
2 Moreperfectunion is a price I have some interest in but not enough to wager on. This half to Jody’s Pride had some knee action prior to debut but then when worked on the grass looked average. Biggest negative on the turf work I saw is appears you must keep contact with her or she looses action a bit. Another subject for another time.
3 A.P. Kid flashed some speed on debut and now will try the turf. Pletcher is 14% in this spot… I do wonder if Edgar would have got first call here with a large portion of the colony out of town.
8 Orator for Shug who is 13% with first timers routing on the grass in MSW’s and 0 for 19 at Gulfstream. I thought was interesting Edgar landed here but ultimately is one I want to see a couple races.
10 Dawn Dragon was working with Grade 2 winner Scythian prior to debut. Tries the turf for the first time but Junior is on the 4 which was my deciding factor.
12 Egyptian has several reasons to be on the A LINE. Walsh is 16% in this spot and this gelding ran well on debut and now is gelded plus getting lasix BUT!! Edgar has jumped ship and the turf work on March 2nd was a big negative…. I did listen to the Players Pod and JK picked this one on top so does make me look again but man was that work on March 2nd awful.
