Post day Pegasus is like the day after Thanksgiving, even though I am full the leftovers are talking to me from the fridge. Today’s offering includes two spots plays from Gulfstream Park with some casserole.
Gulfstream Park Race 3
F – Clm 20000 (20-16) N3L – Turf – One Mile – 4^
3 reasons or so to bet #7, Star Swept
- Luis Saez is up on the mount, when riding for JK Sweezey they hit at a .38 clip (sample size 13).
- Tactics, if you look at the run lines you do not see any front running speed from Star Swept, Luis reads the PP’s and maybe he will go to the lead instead of sitting off. Horses do what is naturally so this take is possibly wrong but a mile on the turf showed yesterday being on the lead might be beneficial.
- Took a shot at a higher level and back to down to the 20k level, even though N3L’s and not N2L’s other horses in the race have taken their shots at this level without winning. Star Swept like Gulfstream Park and going one mile on the turf, which makes me want to lock in the 6-1 morning line.
Gulfstream Park Race 10
F – OC25k/N1X – 5 furlongs – Turf – 4^
3 reasons or so to bet Alexandra Kay
- The brother-in-law angle is in play, it may seem silly but I have seen Jose Ortiz jump aboard Kevin Rice horses before where the horse looks average, yet they win. DRF Formulator stat, 4 wins out 12 when these two connect since 2016.
- Drop a beat or a class level. Looking back obviously others have more class, the Mountaineer race with a 32-speed figure is sore on the eyes. The mare seemed to come back from that nicely tough with better figures and a solid one in a higher-class level last out.
- 8-30 days Kevin Rice is a 17% winner and 46% ITM. There are better horses in this race but for what I see, and with odds offered at 15-1 I will take a shot here. The board may speak though, so give the tote a look before firing.
Best of luck today if you are firing up the betting machine. Check the blog later for a couple of spot plays from Santa Anita Park. Give a follow on twitter @blinkersoff420 and for all of your horse racing content @inthemoneymedia / inthemoneypodcast.com