ITM Show 125: PTF’s New Gig

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  • Regarding the Derby futures pool, it is easy enough to determine how the postponement affected the odds. Historical data is available at Focus only on the “all other 3yos” option. As the race gets closer the odds increase. In Pool 1 (a little over 5 months out), the odds are always around even money. In Pool 2 (3 months out), the odds increase to 5/2. In Pool 3 (2 months out), the odds increase further to at least 4-1. The postponement puts us back at a little over 5 months out. The importance of the time until the race is consistent and significant. My only bet this year is on “all others” in Pool 3, but even to me the unfairness of not refunding the bets is obvious. I am amazed that the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission reached out to JK (and presumably others) and decided to approve not refunding. I wonder who told them not refunding was fair.

    Churchill has said they intend to go ahead with Pool 4 in April. If the odds on “all others” in that pool are not less than 4-1, I will be proven wrong.

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