JRA (Japan) Breeding Analysis – April 17th

Looking for a breeding angle for the tough Nakayama card tonight?  Alan Carasso has you covered!

Alan does great work at the TDN including this piece on the G1 Satuski Sho: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/efforia-looks-to-remain-undefeated-in-satsuki-sho/

SATSUKI SHO DAY — Nakayama, Saturday, April 18 (Sunday in Japan)

Race 5, Allowance, 3yo, 1800m, post time: 11:25 p.m. ET

# 3 — SATONO BUTLER (JPN) (c, 3, King Kamehameha {Jpn}–Belle Watling {Chi}, by Dushyantor) is by a Japanese Derby winner and out of a Chilean Horse of the Year who beat the boys in the Chilean Derby. Add that to the fact that this colt was the fifth-priciest offering at $2.3-million at the 2019 JRHA Select Yearling Sale and it’s safe to say that connections would rather be racing in Sunday’s G1 Satsuki Sho than in a nine-furlong dirt allowance. Alas, here he is, and he will take plenty of beating off a dominating maiden-breaking victory going an extended 10-furlong trip at Tokyo Jan. 31. Christophe Lemaire adds to the appeal, but almost guarantees a short price.

American-bred #2 — COSMIC MIND (c, 3, Into Mischief–Mystical Star, by Ghostzapper) is in the ‘right’ spot by comparison and hasn’t run a bad one in three career starts. The $280,000 Keeneland September sales graduate overcame a world of bother to break his maiden first time out and ran on strongly to be a good fourth in a race going this distance at Chukyo last month. Incidentally, he is one of two in the race bred by Candy Meadows LLC.

Race 10, Keiyo S.-Listed, 4yo/up, 1200m, post time: 2:00 a.m. ET

# 5 — JASPER PRINCE (h, 6, Violence–Ambitious Cat, by Bernardini) has punched well above his weight on the rough-and-tumble JRA circuit, having won five of 23 starts and close to $760,000, not half-bad for a $100,000 OBS March juvenile purchase. Boldly sent across for last year’s GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint (he set the early pace before fading) after winning at this level a few months prior, he was runner-up to a horse called Ryuno Yukina (Jpn) two starts back and the latter returned to win the valuable Listed Tokyo Sprint at Ohi this past Wednesday. He seems to prefer a fast track, so he merits some attention if it stays dry Sunday at Nakayama.

Race 11, Satsuki Sho-G1, 3yo, 2000mT, post time: 2:40 a.m. ET

The Guineas shapes as a wide-open affair, with some of the chief protagonists racing fresh-up, while others have the benefit of a lead-up run. I have to admit that I was underwhelmed with #8 Danon the Kid (Jpn)‘s championship-clinching victory in the year-end G1 Hopeful S., a workmanlike effort in which he outstayed his rivals, and I couldn’t give him an excuse for his third to the pacesetting #13 Titleholder (Jpn) in the C&D G2 Deep Impact Kinen last month. I prefer the progressive #7 Efforia (Jpn) to him off a visually impressive victory in the G3 Kyodo News Hai when last seen February 14. He’ll have every chance to run his record to an unblemished 4-4 from close range. The fact that Christophe Lemaire has landed on the rail-drawn #1 Admire Hadar (Jpn) speaks volumes to me and that will be my pick at bettable odds. I thought he was too close to the pace and uncomfortable when beating #11 Deep Monster (Jpn) in a December allowance and his last-out tally in the Listed Wakaba S. was extremely impressive to the eye. Would not be surprised to see #6 Yoho Lake run some sort of race. He was third in the Hopeful and came with a ridiculously wide run to just miss behind #9 Lagom (Jpn) in the G2 Kisaragi Sho back in February. Yoho Lake is triple the ante-post price of Lagom and simply should not be.

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