JRA (Japan) Breeding Analysis – May 15th

The TDN’s Alan Carasso is back with an in depth look at some breeding angles tonight from Tokyo Racecourse.  He’s a fan of Terzetto in the big dance.  Can she stay undefeated this year?

Alan’s fine work can always be seen at the TDN: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/draw-favours-gran-alegria-in-victoria-mile/

VICTORIA MILE DAY — Saturday, May 15, 2021 (Sunday in Japan)

Race 5, Allowance, 3yo, 1600mT, post time 11:20 p.m. ET

#1 CLONTARF (JPN) (c, 3, Deep Impact {Jpn}–Cherry Collect {Ire}, by Oratorio {Ire}) was not disgraced in a pair of juvenile appearances, finishing seventh on each occasion while not far off the winner. He most recently returned from a 3 1/2-month break and tipped the scale some 14 kilos heavier than his last start, but came away to a good-looking victory Jan. 31. The colt carries the colors of Sunday Racing, who went 1-2-3 in last Sunday’s G1 NHK Mile Cup, and is a son of Italian highweight and 2014 G2 Oaks d’Italia winner Cherry Collect, the dam of the stakes-winning and Group 1-placed Wakea (Jpn) (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}) and Group 3-placed Danon Grace (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}). Cherry Collect’s half-sister Sea Of Class (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) won the G1 Darley Irish Oaks and G1 Yorkshire Oaks and was runner-up Enable (GB) in the 2018 G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Sea Of Class sadly passed away from colic in 2019. American-bred #3 VANISHING POINT (c, 3, Tapit–Unrivaled Belle, by Unbridled’s Song), the full-brother to two-time Eclipse Award winner Unique Bella, hasn’t been the same since winning his maiden first time out by seven lengths over 2000 meters last August. He cuts back in trip and gets the endorsement of Christophe Lemaire for this start.

Race 10, Open Class, 3yo, 1600m, post time: 2:00 a.m. ET

This race will serve as a course-and-distance trial for the June 20 G3 Unicorn S. and has attracted some of the country’s top dirt sophomores. #6 LA PEROUSE (JPN) (c, 3, Pelusa {Jpn}–Hat Shite Good, by Empire Maker) has won four of his six career trips to the post and rides a three-race winning streak into this, having most recently won the Listed Hyacinth S.–a Kentucky Derby points race–over the same track and trip Feb. 21. #9 SATONO MUSTANG (c, 3, Mineshaft–Mare and Cher, by Old Fashioned) should offer some value in the market. Second to next-out Cattleya Sho winner Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid) on debut Nov. 7, he returned on two weeks’ rest to break his maiden over 6 1/2 furlongs and showed a fair bit of determination to add a one-win class victory going seven-eighths of a mile Feb. 7. He turned in a puzzling effort when ninth at Chukyo Mar. 13, but perhaps didn’t care for a rain-affected strip and has a chance to rebound here. The enigmatic #3 REFRAME (f, 3, American Pharoah), a daughter of GI Alabama S. winner Careless Jewel (Tapit) turned in a debut that simply needs to be seen to be believed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJhDq0jC1eQ, but lands in a very salty spot for what is her first go on dirt.

Race 11, G1 Victoria Mile, 4yo/up, f/m, 1mT, post time: 2:40 a.m. ET

I am a total sucker for champion #6 GRAN ALEGRIA (JPN) (m, 5, Deep Impact {Jpn}–Tapitsfly, by Tapit), who defeated Almond Eye (Jpn) to win last year’s G1 Yasuda Kinen (probably headed back this year) and in the G1 Mile Championship with a wicked turn of speed. She also beat the boys in the G1 Sprinters’ S., but gave the 2000 meters a try in the G1 Osaka Hai and ran well over easy ground to be fourth. She is back at her favored Tokyo for this and will be tough to oppose. If she wins, I’ll tip the cap, but oppose we will with #9 TERZETTO (JPN) (f, 4, Deep Impact {Jpn}–Raddolcendo {Jpn}, by Danehill Dancer {Ire}). The 4-year-old has tasted defeat just once in her six starts (going 10 furlongs) and stepped up in class to take down the G3 Lord Derby Challenge Trophy from well off the pace Apr. 3. They are going to fly up front, setting things up for a late close. Whether she can sprint with Gran Alegria remains to be seen, but at something around 10 times the price, I will be willing to find out. Terzetto’s dam is a half-sister to recent G1 FWD QE II Cup winner Loves Only You (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}). The legendary Deep Impact accounts for 10 of Sunday’s 18 runners.

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Further reading

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