It’s Oaks day in Japan, and who better to take us through an in depth look at the breeding angles than Alan Carasso from the TDN!
Alan has an excellent piece on the Oaks that can be found here at the TDN: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/sodashi-aims-for-six-straight-in-yushun-himba/
Race 4, Maiden, 3yo, 2400mT, post time: 10:30 p.m. ET
#10 HINOSHITA KAIZAN (FR) (c, 3, Galileo {Ire}–Prudente {Fr}, by Dansili {GB}) was knocked down to trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida for €1.5 million ($1,663,650) at the Arqana August Yearling Sale in 2019, making him the second-priciest offering at that most important of French auctions. The bay colt is the first foal out of a full-sister to the stakes-winning Prudenzia (Ire), the dam of the globetrotting multiple Group 1 winner Magic Wand (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), and–ironically–the dam of the Dubawi (Ire) filly that topped the 2019 Arqana August Sale at €1.625 million who has since become a French Group 3 winner for Godolphin racing as Philomene (Ire). Prudenzia is also the dam of Irish highweight and 2013 G1 Darley Irish Oaks winner Chicquita (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}), who sold for better than $8 million at public auction in 2013. Hinoshita Kaizan makes his first start since finishing fifth on Hanshin debut over 1800 meters last November. Christophe Lemaire sees fit to take the call on the colt who is bred on the same Galileo/Danehill cross as one Frankel (GB).
Race 6, Allowance, 3yo, 1600mT, post time: 11:50 p.m. ET
#1 LEFTOVERS (JPN) (f, 3, Deep Impact {Jpn}–Tell a Kelly, by Tapit) will be no secret as a long odds-on choice, but can reliably be used as a banker in multi-race wagers. Bred on the exact same cross as last weekend’s G1 Victoria Mile romper Gran Alegria (Jpn), this daughter of the 2010 GI Del Mar Debutante winner graduated over this course and distance at first asking last November, then had the misfortune of running into future G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) winner Efforia (Jpn) (Epiphaneia {Jpn}) in the G3 Kyodo News Hai in February, finishing ninth while beaten 5 1/2 lengths at odds of 9-2. Sold for ¥50 million ($461,000) as a yearling at the 2019 JRHA Select Sale, the May 6 foal should be difficult to resist in this allowance test.
Race 11, Yushun Himba-G1, 3yo, f, 2400mT, post time: 2:40 p.m. ET
OK, confession time. I, too, enjoy looking at pictures of #11 SODASHI (JPN) (Kurofune) in action, and I admire the determination she’s shown in racking up five wins to date. She’s done what she’s had to do, and the fact that she never wins by a space is more a positive in my eyes than a negative. Trainer Naosuke Sugai believes she’ll get this 12-furlong trip and I know from experience–having taken a stance against horses on pedigree grounds in races like our Derby and Oaks–that it’s probably best to take those opinions seriously. Still, do we want even-money in an evenly matched field. Let’s say it together–nah. #7 AKAITORINO MUSUME (JPN) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) will likely be the one that the contrarians pour into, and why not? She’s the product of two Triple Crown winners and she’ll see this out with every chance to build on her fourth in the Oka Sho. #13 FINE ROUGE (JPN) (Kizuna {Jpn}), ran, well, fine, in the Guineas and #9 UBERLEBEN (JPN) (Gold Ship {Jpn}) represents arguably the best chance of those not exiting the Guineas, even as her last-out defeat to #5 COOL CAT (JPN) (Screen Hero {Jpn}) and 80-something-to-1 #17 SLYLY (JPN) (Orfevre {Jpn}) left me feeling a bit empty. #1 KUKUNA (JPN) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) comes into the Oaks well and truly under the radar, but no doubt fits with these. Beaten 1 3/4 lengths into second by Sodashi in the G3 Artemis S. (1600m) at this venue in October, she was a close third as the favorite behind Akaitorino Musume in the G3 Queen Cup (1600m) at HQ in February. Her run in Guineas was interesting, as she raced detached from the field in last into the final 800 meters, but really laid her body down in the straight, covering her final three furlongs in a blistering :33.2. That was bettered only by the Derby-bound Satono Reinas (Jpn), who would challenge for favoritism in this. Sodashi, by comparison, was home in :33.8, though she raced much handier to the pace. The distance and the long run in at Fuchu work in Kukuna’s favor, she’s drawn well to save some ground and it’ll be up to the up-and-coming Takeshi Yokoyama to find some daylight turning for home. Feel she’s a live rough chance in all pools.
