JRA (Japan) Racing – Breeding Analysis – May 8th

The TDN’s Alan Carasso joins us again this week,  looking at the breeding angles from this weekends NHK Mile Cup card from Tokyo.

You can catch all of Alan’s great work at the TDN including this feature on the G1 NHK Mile Cup https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/frankels-grenadier-guards-looks-to-bounce-back-in-nhk-mile-cup/

NHK MILE CUP DAY — Saturday, May 9, 2021 (Sunday in Japan)

Race 2, Maiden, 3yo, 1600m, post time: 9:35 p.m. ET

7 MELIODAS (c, 3, Uncle Mo–Fifty Foot Woman, by Giant’s Causeway) was well-beaten in a single try on the turf to kick off his career, but showed dramatic improvement with a switch to the dirt, finishing a competitive third last November. He was a full 25 pounds heavier than his winning weight when last seen finishing eighth over this course and trip in February and it might be prudent to have a look at that statistic in the parade ring Saturday evening. Uncle Mo has been a successful sire in Japan, with 17 winners from 23 starters, and this $325,000 Keeneland September yearling is out of a daughter of the stakes-winning Path of Thunder (Thunder Gulch), a full-sister to Grade I Breeders’ Cup Distaff upsetter Spain and the dam of Grade III-winning turf filly Excited (Giant’s Causeway). The latter is responsible for SW & MGSP Thrilled, a daughter of Uncle Mo. Meliodas has some longshot appeal.

Race 5, Allowance, 3yo, 1600m, post time: 11:25 p.m. ET

1 ANNUNCIATION (c, 3, Union Rags–Acquant, by Giant’s Causeway) has made all three of his career starts to date over this course and distance, winning his maiden at first asking before a pair of slow-starting, fast-finishing runner-up efforts at this level. A $230K Keeneland September graduate, the May 12 foal is out of a winning daughter of MGSW Social Queen (Dynaformer), the dam of 2015 GI Belmont Derby winner Force the Pass (Speightstown). A short price is all but guaranteed with Lemaire hanging around, but this race is his for the taking with a clean break.

Race 11, NHK Mile Cup-G1, 3yo, 1600mT, post time: 2:40 a.m. ET

I really want to oppose Grenadier Guards (Jpn) (Frankel {GB}) (and ultimately will) at lowish odds in this full field, and I initially wanted to be pretty critical of his return in the G3 Flower S. last time, where he had every chance in the world to run down Rooks Nest (Jpn) (Maurice {Jpn}) but just could not go by. In the end, reading the comments from his trainer, I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt, as the ground did look to be a bit shifty (even if they clocked racehorse time). That being said, there looks to be a lot of early speed in this race, so, in looking for something that’s going to come with a run from midpack or so, I will take my chances with Schnell (German for ‘quick’ or ‘fast’) Meister (Ger) (Kingman {GB}). He looked just sensational in a 1-win class race in December going a mile at Nakayama, traveled like a winner every step, but was much handier to the pace in when second in the G2 Yayoi Sho going 2000 meters in early March. It is hardly discouraging that the winner that day, Titleholder (Jpn) (Duramente {Jpn}), came back to finish second in the G1 Satsuki Sho. I expect Schnell Meister to be outrun for the opening five furlongs and will hope Christophe Lemaire finds running room in the final 300 meters. Not going to get rich, but much prefer him to Grenadier Guards.

I also think that Rickenbacker (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) is capable of running a cheeky race at each-way odds. Sure, he needed six tries to finally break his maiden, but it wasn’t as if he was disgraced badly in any of those starts. Connections thought enough of his maiden victory to let him take his chance in the G3 Arlington Cup, a trial for this race three weeks ago, and he was stopped at a crucial stage before leveling out late and hit the wire strongly to finish second. He should be 40-1 or better in the win pool and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him spice up the exotics.

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