JRA (Japan) Stakes Analysis – G1 Victoria Mile

The fillies and mares take centre stage tonight in the G1 Victoria Mile from Tokyo Racecourse.

Can Gran Alegria add another G1 victory to her stellar resume?

Race 11 – G1 Victoria Mile – 8f Turf – 4yo and Up Fillies and Mares – 2:40 am ET/11:40 PM PT

6 Gran Alegria – It’s very tough to look past her in this field as the top choice. She should have been horse of the year in 2020 but lost out to darling Almond Eye. Has six wins from eight starts in her career at the mile distance and is three for four at Tokyo. She has raced vs. males and won, stringing together three straight G1 wins (including an easy win vs. Almond Eye in the G1 Yasuda Kinen). The distance and surface did her no favours last out and if she’s in her best form should win this. The price will be horrible so using her in vertical and horizontal wagers as a saver only, keying on top of our selections below.

1 Magic Castle – The daughter of Deep Impact had every right to give up in her last (G2 Hanshin Himba), enduring trouble after trouble through the stretch. She found room very late, came with a rush and was nosed out by Des Ailes. That one hemmed her in and had a clear unimpeded run on the outside. She does possess back class, as shown in her second place finish last year to Triple Tiara winner Daring Tact in the G1 Shuka Sho. Makes the third start of the form cycle and think she’s sitting on a big race. Will have traffic issues again with the draw but hoping Tosaki can work out a mid pack trip and have her steaming home late.

9 Terzetto – Has slowly climbed the class ladder, winning her last four starts in a row. Faced graded stakes company vs. males last out in the G3 Lord Derby Challenge, winning with a strong late race move by jockey Demuro. She is undefeated at Tokyo and is five for five at the mile distance. I don’t see her sitting as far back as her last race but do expect her to be sitting mid-pack and come home late. She is regally bred and should only improve. Originally had her as my second pick in here but the fact jockey Tosaki stayed on Castle made my decision (having ridden both). Still not sure if she’s up to G1 caliber yet but the price makes her worth a shot.

18 Resistencia – A very speedy yet classy filly who’s had ZERO luck with the draw (post 16 in her last and 18 today). There’s other speed signed on in here but think she’ll have more time to work out a forwardly placed trip. Like the fact the the “Legend” Yutaka Take regains the mount after going through three other riders. He has experience with her, finishing second last year in the G1 Oka Sho (1000 Guineas). I’ve always questioned if this was her best distance as I do think she’s better at 6 to 7f. If she was going to get her 2nd G1 win I think last race was the one to do it in. She’ll be there about at the finish if the pace isn’t hot but others appeal more at a price.

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Further reading

Woodbine 6/20/2021 – by Drew Coatney

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